Gold Cup Looks The Smart Choice For Crus

With the mighty Denman now retired, Long Run and Kauto Star look miles in front of the other 3 mile chasers. Kauto made it 2-0 this season with his stunning King George success and the career score now is 2-2 between this pair. Long Run looked ring-rusty at Haydock but got closer at Kempton, and of the two looked like the extra demands of the Cheltenham test would suit him more.

I think it is correct that he remains the favourite and if luck should have that his amateur jockey is unable to ride; he would be a good thing. Sam Waley-Cohen is a good amateur jockey, arguably very good, but that’s all he is and in Ruby Walsh he is taken on one of the best of all time. For me Walsh is worth about 8lbs compared to Waley-Cohen and this advantage brings the front two very close together. The multiple grade one winning duo set a very high standard for others to aim at but it’s not insurmountable. Despite winning two Gold Cups, the suspicion remains that this test doesn’t really suit Kauto, and with Long Run’s jumping and jockey issues I am looking to take them on at juicy odds.

The top class staying novice Grands Crus continued his seamless transition to the larger obstacles with another fluent success in the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day. He recorded a significantly faster time than the mighty Kauto Star over the same CD and put two smart novices in their place. The Ryanair chase remains the most likely target at the festival but what will he prove by winning that? That he is the best staying novice around, well I think we already know that. The last time Pond House had the top novice Gloria Victus he took his chance in the 2000 Gold Cup and was still bang there until fatally crashing out at the 2nd last. Grands Crus is a little different in that he raced in championship class over hurdles and the Gold cup is probably easier than facing Big Bucks. His jumping is far from novice-like and with perhaps one more prep run under his belt, I expect him to take his chance in the big one and at least hit the frame.