The 1st Saturday of Advent

As children look forward to the 1^st of December and the advent season, this betting blog looks forward to the beginning of December and the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown. This is the start of three cracking Saturdays in the run up to the King George meeting at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Tingle Creek Betting Advice

This race has been won by such champions as Kauto Star and Moscow Flyer in the past and there is no better sight in racing than champion 2m chasers pinging the railway fences at speed. Unfortunately, this year’s renewal doesn’t look a vintage affair and, apart from the current Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe, the others look a below-average bunch.

So far this season Sizing Europe has run twice with one success and most recently a runners-up spot behind the progressive Quito de la Roque in the Champion Chase at Down Royal. That race is run over 3 miles and, to me, Sizing Europe is a genuine 2 miler and doesn’t stay 3 miles especially on soft ground which he encountered on this occasion. He had an extremely hard race then and I think his exertions on this occasion will have taken their toll and he will need freshening up before his defence of his title at Cheltenham in March.

This Week’s Big Bet  - Wishful Thinking

The one I like in the race is Wishful Thinking from the Phillip Hobbs yard. This horse was most progressive last season  in which he was an honourable 2^nd at the Cheltenham festival and a victory followed at the Punchestown festival  off top weight in a very competitive handicap. This season Wishful Thinking reappeared at Cheltenham in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in which he went off a well backed 7/2 favourite. Realistically he was set a very hard task by the handicapper in being asked to win this competitive handicap off a mark higher than Long Run got beat off a year previous but he ran well for a long way and jumped with aplomb until fitness told. With that run under his belt and the drop back to 2 miles in his favour I think Wishful Thinking could run his rivals ragged especially if he can get into his normally fluent jumping rhythm.

My conclusion to this is that I think Sizing Europe could still be feeling the effects of a hard race last time out and Wishful Thinking could be the one to take advantage at around the 7/2 mark. Mind you, my record so far on this betting blog is 0 from 5, so I’m not exactly in form at the moment, but it must change some time hopefully this side of Christmas!