Ultra-Competitive Test for Rising Stars

This Saturday’s Ladbroke Hurdle is just about the most competitive handicap hurdle run outside the festival and brings together a whole host of improving types. In this week’s betting blog I will try to find some big bets in a tricky but rewarding test for punters.

THE NICHOLLS CONTENDERS

At the time of writing the champion trainer has 7 of the 39 initial entrants but, in all probability, there are 3 to concentrate on. Brampour is likely to head the weights and his trainer is likely to let him take his chance just seven days after a decent effort at Cheltenham. The fact he has won at Ascot is a big plus as since the course was renovated it has become a bit of a specialists track. For me Ascot form doesn’t travel that well but tends to repeat itself at the track. Brampour runs off 158 but with Jimmy Derham now able to claim his valuable 7lb he is likely to be competitive although perhaps vulnerable to better handicapped rivals.

Prospect Wells fits that bill perfectly- talented on the flat he has not surprisingly improved since switched to Nicholls. He has hurdled particularly proficiently and off a mark of 142 he must have strong claims..

Empire Levant also represents Nicholls but looks nailed by the handicapper off a mark of 140 after finding Rock On Ruby too good when off 128. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve but at 12/1 he is not for me.

THE HENDERSON CONTENDERS

The massively inform Nicky Henderson has 3 entrants. Gibb River appears at this stage his main hope and he must have a big chance. This flat-bred was a very good novice last season before finding the Supreme Novices all too much for him. For me the Cheltenham assignment was a mistake as this speedy sort looked ideal for Aintree. His reappearance at Sandown was very pleasing and he should be spot on for this, 2 miles on decent ground at Ascot looks right up his street.

A Media Luz will need some to come out to get a run but if taken her chance has a decent squeak. She is just 1lb higher when 3rd here in October and if settling better is a big runner. That may be a big if as headstrong antics seem compulsory but the day she consents to restraint is the day to be on.

Rajdani Express, Seven Barrows’ other entrant, is owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and this recent French import made a good start for connections when 5th at Sandown. I think further and fences is his future and, although he may be well handicapped, it is too much of a guessing game with the odds on offer not enough for me to take part.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

Predicting who will turn up from Ireland isn’t easy at this stage. They have 8 entries with the main man Willie Mullins supplying 5. Flat Out hasn’t run since his brief novice chase campaign in January. Undoubtedly talented it would be some effort to take this first time back off 143. At about 14/1 there is not enough in the price to reflect this task.

Dare To Doubt has more claims following her impressive win at Punchestown. She has however been assessed 15lb higher by the British Handicapper and that may be enough to stop her.

The County Hurdle hero Final Approach ran better than the final position suggests in a race he couldn’t win at Fairyhouse recently and is a very decent tool but now up to 150,I think he has a tough task.

Edward O’Grady’s Sailors Warn was sixth in the Triumph last year and hasn’t been as harshly treated by the British Handicaper as the Mullins’ team. He is however 4lb higher than his Irish mark and is likely to run well without being good enough.

Other Contenders

I’m a big fan of Featherbed Lane but I cannot believe 2m on decent ground will play to his strengths. The extra distance and soft ground looked essential to him during his impressive win at Aintree. He has won under the likely conditions at Ascot but that was off a 24lb lower mark and unless there is a deluge I don’t think he will take his chance.

Olofi is not a certain runner which is a shame as he has very strong claims after finishing runner up in the Greatwood. If he misses this keep the strong travelling grey in mind for the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury.

Abergaveny was an excellent 3rd in the Greatwood, battling on gamely when looking certain to be swamped.

Via Galilea is ultra-consistent and very likeable and will give you a good run for e/w support at decent odds.

Third Intention has performed with credit this season when many from his stable were struggling. With the Tizzard team now going better, I think this 4yr has a decent chance and makes my short list.

Desert Cry has really found his feet lately and was a game winner at Haydock but 8lb extra for winning a neck and now up in class he is not for me.

Verdict

Guessing what will turn up doesn’t make this easy and I will by-pass Olofi because of these doubts. I am therefore left with two second season novices: Gibb River and Third Intention are my current fancies for this mouth-watering test. Good luck whatever bets you have.

Big Bet 1 Gibb River 12/1 e/w
Big Bet 2 Third Intention 20/1 e/w