X-Factor Betting

As someone who normally hibernates once the last horse passes the post at the end of the Breeders’ Cup Classic due to the extreme tedious and slow nature of National Hunt racing, it has been good to find a new betting medium this Autumn/Winter- X-Factor. X-Factor is such a fantastic betting medium for a number of reasons:

The market is formed very early on in the series before many of the acts have even sung in front of a live audience. There is a lot of value to be had in backing and laying in the early weeks of the show. Due to the celebrity-fuelled world we live in, the market over-reacts to every minor detail in the show: if someone sings well, they shorten far too much and likewise if they sing badly, they drift far too much.

People make the fatal mistake that the show is a singing competition. It isn’t- it’s a weekly entertainment show that boils down to a popularity contest with the public (a friend described it as musical WWE). This year, Misha B is clearly the most talented performer yet she’s consistently in the bottom two as the public don’t warm to her. This is one reason why so many X-Factor contestants do so badly once the show ends. Last year’s winner, former painter and decorator Matt Cardle, has been booked to decorate my flat rather than getting Number One singles because, whilst he was popular every Saturday night because of his rugged good looks, people have realised when it comes to selling singles, he’s about as entertaining as watching his previous decorating work dry.

My Big Bets

This year, I’ve backed Janet at 4/1 (out), Jonny at 66/1 (out), Frankie at 14/1 (out), Misha at 14/1 (still in) and Little Mix at 60/1 (now 5/4 favs, after-timing aye aye) and also laid Craig at 5.4 (out) and The Risk at 3.15 (out). I think Little Mix look home and hosed; the reason they were such a big price at the start is that everyone said girl bands couldn’t win the show as they’d never won before. This was because the girl bands that have been on before were a combination of being dire and/or being attractive and thus being threatening to women. Little Mix are actually quite good, very entertaining and are tiny 18 year olds who wouldn’t say boo to a goose. I only see Marcus as the danger to them but I suspect he may start to bore the public in the final two shows.

To Be Eliminated

Regarding this week’s elimination, Misha B has been backed into 8/11 favourite to be the 13^th act to be eliminated but I actually think Amelia (13/8) is more likely to go. It’s very very likely that Kelly’s two girls will be in the bottom two but Misha seems to remain very popular with the judges and, when it comes down to their decision, I suspect they’ll save Misha as she is clearly the most talented contestant. Boylesports also offer 4/6 that Misha and Amelia are the bottom two this week and I’d probably say that represents value given Little Mix and Marcus are both sub 2/1 to win the competition and seem very popular with the public.