3/1 De Sousa Value to Claim Jockey’s Crown

Gambling Advice – Jockey’s Title

The 2012 champion flat Jockey’s title is a market that I have been monitoring in recent weeks. There are some mystifying quotes and a failure by some compilers to understand what is required. Strong backing from powerful connections is important but the main factor is wanting to win it and being prepared to sacrifice everything else to do so. By defination being young and hungry is the key with the pursuit of quantity over quality accepted.

Moore

In recent seasons Ryan Moore, arguably the best jockey riding, has been odds on to win the title but people have woke up and smelt the coffee and realised that Moore isn’t that bothered. Sure if he is in contention come September he will give it a go, but he would rather win group races and links with Ballydoyle mean that he will be riding in Ireland more often. Basically when not required by Sir Michael Stoute, Aiden O’Brien will have his services and as an international operation he will less able to pursue any title aspirations than in previous years. This season’s quotes of around 7/2 are much more realistic but still don’t look great.

Hanagan

Paul Hanagan has won the Jockey’s crown for the last two seasons and is 3/1 to go in again. is not the worst quote by any means as every year he seems to get off to a flyer. Hanagan will no doubt claim that he isn’t going to put his family or his body through that again but when ten clear through April he may see things differently. I do think he is sincere in his desire not to have such a draining campaign and his focus must be on going to the next level. That means securing more top rides in the top races and sacrificing quantity for quality.

Hughes

Richard Hughes definitely wants the title and will get powerful support from Richard Hannon and the 6/1 available is a little too big. I just wonder whether he has missed his chance and while he is highly likely to ride 120+ winners I think he will have difficulty keeping up with my fancy.

De Sousa

That honour goes to Silvestre De Sousa who I believe is a good thing. Runner up last year the brilliant Brazilian looks to have the stable jockey job at Mark Johnston’s in all but name. Johnston doesn’t appoint a stable jockey nowadays claiming he picks the best inform option at the time. But there is no doubt De Sousa is his main man and he would be well advised to secure his services before someone else does. De Sousa wants to be champion and is prepared to make the sacrifices, will ride for the most powerful stable numerically in the country, will have around 1000 rides and if staying injury free and adapting to the whip rules is a very likely winner. I have burgled the 4/1 and 7/2 and think he is a 2/1 chance tops so at 3/1 he still rates big bet material.

Now stand by for some pretty ordinary odds compiling. It is amazing when Betfair don’t have a market how inept some leading firms are at thinking for themselves. The 7/2 about Keiran Fallon is fairly general and is frankly laughable. I had to check whether this was the price for a special senior Jockey’s market but no it is for the main event. The 47 year old Irishman made a good fist of it last year but finished the season completely cream crackered. The effort took its toll and if he has any sense he will try to preserve his powers for another few seasons. I doubt he will declare himself a runner and even if he does for me he has little or no chance. He is unlikely to enjoy the patronage he got last year from Mark Johnston and riding for Luca Cumani and newcomer Jason Tate is hardly likely to provide the necessary firepower.

Others

The 50/1 about Joe Fanning is staggering and at least 2 extra 0′s wouldn’t go a miss. There are worse bets than the 50/1 about Jamie Spencer as he seems to have got his hunger back but he lacks the necessary support. Luke Morris is fast moving up the ranks and will probably have as many if not more rides than anyone else and at 100/1 he is over priced. If you can get three figures when the exchanges go up he could be a back to lay proposition but lack of support from a major stable means he is unlikely to oblige. I wouldn’t mind a match bet with Joe Fanning but I doubt anyone will oblige me.

In conclusion De Sousa looks to have all the boxes ticked and can be a major contender for this season and the next few season’s ahead.