The Last Chance Saloon with Somersby 2/2

In Part 1 I made the case for Sommersby for the Victor Chandler Chase this Saturday. In Part 2 I’ll assess the chances of some of the other entrants.

The head of the market is dominated by two exciting chasers, Finian’s Rainbow and Al Ferof. They are potentially very good indeed, too good for this field. However, they have had less than 10 chase races between them as Al Ferof is a novice and Finian’s one race out of that status.

At the distance Finian’s Rainbow is for me the better of the two and he takes high rank in the Champion Chase market. The problem on Saturday is his previous run where he rescued victory from defeat with a terrific late surge. The fact that he struggled at 4/11 worries me and the conclusion is that he isn’t best going right handed. For all that he is unbeaten going clockwise, they were simple tasks for a horse of his ability and if you watch all three of his right handed triumphs he definitely jumps slightly left and hangs a little that way. He is very talented, extremely likeable and unlike Somersby knows how to win but at 7/4 I will have to pass.

Al Ferof has only had the two chase starts but has impressed with his jumping and gets this trip really well. In fact another 4 furlongs or so might prove ideal but provided there is a strong pace he should get away with it. He is priced at around 11/4 making the front two about 4/7 coupled. Again I respect his chance but will look elsewhere. Firstly as a novice he will be asked to jump at a pace he never has before and whether he can find an early rhythm is questionable. Secondly, his all-conquering trainer Paul Nicholls is having his typical early year quiet spell with just one winner in the last fortnight. There is no need for alarm however as Nicholls tends to back off a bit this time of year in his quest for peak well-being come the festivals. He will continue to have winners in this period and has had the last three winners of this event but I wonder if Al Ferof will be at his best this weekend and I think he will need to be.

So what of the rest? Gauvain has a similar chance to Somersby and by winning the Peterborough Chase he proved he could do it away from Cheltenham, but he was well held in this last year and whilst I respect his place claims, I think the Ascot factor favours Somersby.

Wishful Thinking at this stage has been the market buzzer with connections hoping he is settling down after some over exuberant and ultimately disappointing efforts this season. He definitely accepted restraint much better last time but still got beat by Finian’s Rainbow when everything went wrong for the favourite. Just behind Finians last time people obviously think the price differential was too large but he only beat Oiseau De Nuit 1 3/4 lengths and that one is 25/1 this weekend. Getting beaten by an underperforming favourite isn’t my idea of a positive as what chance will he have if Finian’s is on his game. I hope Wishful Thinking gets his career back on track but I can’t see it happening this Saturday.

The Irish challenger Forpadydeplasterer is more frustrating than Somersby and hasn’t looked back to near his best yet this campaign. He may step it up at Ascot but even if he does, a place shout is the kindest summary.

The previously mentioned Oiseau De Nuit did me a massive favour at last year’s festival and if he repeats that effort he would have minor claims. He hasn’t looked the same horse since, however, and even though he hacked up, that was a handicap off 145, a long way below the level required for Saturday.

I’m So Lucky will need to be well named to win this and although he won’t be disgraced the current odds of around 25/1 seem about right.

In conclusion if you look at the figures, consider the course form and assess the prices, then Somersby has to be the call. Then you remember its Somersby and get ready for the usual: jumped well, travelled smoothly, joined leaders 2 out, no extra close home.

Oh well at least I’m on e/w – good luck.