Betfair Hurdle

At last we can approach a decent race with the strong possibility of it going ahead. The Betfair Hurdle has been re-scheduled for this Friday and, with the freeze apparently behind us, the homework may not be wasted.

Zarkander heads the market and is looking very well handicapped off 151 given the progress of his inferiors at the top of last year’s novice hurdler ranks. Of course that doesn’t mean he will improve to the same degree himself but he did look the type that is very likely to progress. A perfect 3 from 3 including the Triumph Hurdle didn’t seem to satisfy his trainer, who felt he had more to give and a wind op has been performed.

Whoever has the gig for the wind ops down at Ditcheat is clearly on very good terms with himself. So there we are Zarkander at about 3/1 for Nicholls and Walsh will win, job done. Maybe but the recent vibes from the yard have not been positive and the good old `will come on a ton`, `be happy if we finish in the first four` quotes have been appearing. Yes he is the most likely winner but I will look for bigger price contenders.

Now let’s get the other big fancies out the way.

• Darlan- Trainer thinks he is badly handicapped.
• Raya Star- Tall order to double up after winning Ladbroke at Ascot.
• Final Approach- County Hurdle hero handicapped to the hilt.
• Olofi-Talented and enagamatic. I’m on at big prices, don’t join in now as the value has gone and never wins.
• Soldatino- very likely to pull too hard on reappearance; horse to follow when learns to settle.
• Sire De Grugy- will need lots of rain to figure; keep him on side when that happens.
• Third Intention- Definite player but looks too close to fav at weights on last season’s form.
• Empire Levant- Much higher in weights than last time and got beat then.
• Alarazi- Regular in this sort of event; looks too exposed.
• Sailor’s Warn- well backed for Ascot but didn’t impress.
• Ciceron- will run well but couldn’t deliver off his raised mark last time.
• Get Me Out Of Here- Bound to run well without winning; too high in weights.

Right job done – now we are down to the big prices. Of course dismissing these contenders with throw away one-liners is hardly fair and I could make a case for many but that doesn’t suit my argument on this occasion.

Abergavenny ran rather well in the Greatwood off a 5lb lower mark. His subsequent effort in the Ladbroke at Ascot was poor but I think that race was a farce with no pace whatsoever on bad ground. He showed himself to be in rude health when hacking up in a Jumpers Bumper last Sunday and will like the anticipated better ground. His chance isn’t much weaker or indeed stronger than many but his price 28/1-33/1 is much bigger than many with similar credentials. I think he may well reward e/w support.

Desert Cry gave Celestial Halo a fright last time when receiving 8lb and, given that the winner is rated 165, then Donald Mccain’s Desert Cry may be well handicapped off 143. He has performed well on the whole this campaign, with the exception being that farce at Ascot, and his chance depends on whether he can settle. He will need a strong pace in order to do that but given that scenario he is much too big at 40/1.

Good luck and let’s hope it’s on.