Hold Fire on Those `Good Things`

Hurricane Fly

Hurricane Fly made it 12 from 14 on Sunday for Willie Mullins, in arguably his most impressive display to date. With his main rival Unaccompanied clearly failing to handle the arduous conditions, and the others below genuine top class, you may think he was entitled to win and there has been an overreaction. This betting blog is not so sure as he looked very very good on Sunday and most importantly he settled beautifully.

First run back on that ground with his natural exuberance you may have expected him to blow up coming into the straight – not a bit of it. He followed his jockey’s lead perfectly and quickened on command; furthermore his occasionally sloppy jumping was nowhere to be seen. It was the perfect comeback from a top class horse. He is now top price at about 10/11 for the Champion and with a lack of genuine rivals I guess that is pretty fair.

It is important to remember that this is an ante-post market and the firms that go non-runner no bet make him 4/6. Therefore he is regarded at about 1/7 to get to the race and given his previous fragility I’m not sure I would recommend a big bet at those odds. Furthermore Saturday week sees the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury where last year’s best novice Zarkander reappears. Running off 151 he will need to win and win well to shake up the market but that is entirely possible.

In conclusion the Champion Hurdle this year looks relatively weak and the Hurricane stands out like a shining beacon, but the festival is the most competitive betting jungle of the year with very competitive pricing as all the firms try to get your business. Bookies love to lay short ones at the festival and I can see him being bigger than 4/6 come the day, so a waiting game is advised rather than any hard-and-fast gambling advice here.

Big Buck’s

Big Buck’s made it 15 in a row on Saturday with another pretty convincing display; though not at his very best, he got the job done and underlined his superiority in this division. World Hurdle quotes of 1/2 are again very fair and he is bound to figure in all the ante-post short price multiples. Like the Hurricane he stands out like a shining beacon and is going to have to underperform significantly to get turned over.

Whilst I can’t see him being a much bigger price on the day, I can’t see him being much shorter either. Betting markets these days are very sophisticated and in-running considerations are very important. His tendency to hit a flat spot doesn’t fool most in-running players but you usually get bigger odds – indeed he hit 4/6 on Saturday with his 1/4 sp. There is very little upside to a big bet now as every horse has a price to make the race and although he is very sound, you never know.

Quevega

Quevega is the next `good thing` for the festival at around evens. This mare has won the last two renewals of the David Nicholson and has followed up at Punchestown each time. Again she stands out like a shining beacon in this relatively weak division. Her trainer Willie Mullins is peerless in getting horses right after long absences and clearly knows how to bring this mare to the boil for her limited appearances.

However, even he must get it wrong occasionally and maybe it could happen this year and with VoLer La Vedette seemingly improved again this season and the potential of Unaccompanied turning up, the even money makes no appeal at all at this stage. I am in no way doubting her obvious credentials but would sooner wait for the day before jumping on her bandwagon.

The festival is only six weeks away and there are plenty of juicy ante post prices to be garnered but for me these three `good things` can wait much closer to the day.