Luke’s Super Bowl Wagon Bets

The Best Betting Blog in the World

Its official, I am the worst tipster in the Star Sports office. Good job I don’t do any of our preview evenings, box talks or interviews! I’ll just stick to dispensing gambling advice on this blog.

Running P & L: – £1,274.81 (Not bad for 8 weeks of betting in £25 units!)

Moving swiftly on (or whatever is quicker than swiftly)… Super Bowl Sunday is upon us and, seeing as NFL has been so profitable, I see no reason to stop now (sarcasm detector just blew up).

The New England Patriots will meet the New York Giants in Indianapolis Sunday night for the sports showpiece. When looking for a punting angle, I’ve always thought it’s important not to over-complicate. If someone had said to you at the beginning of the regular season that the Patriots would feature in the Super Bowl would you be surprised? The answer I would imagine is no. On the flip side I would imagine you would have been surprised to know the Giants would feature.

Therefore, the 8/11 about a Pats victory looks the logical bet. Tom Brady is on the verge of greatness and I don’t think he will have any fear or doubts going into the game.

That said, the value looks to be in the total points market. The line at 54 looks far too high. Granted both teams are defensively fragile, and the Patriots secondary is horrendous, but they have been a lot more solid as a defensive unit in the post season. Also, with all the pressure of the occasion, I fully expect the game to be very cagey particularly to start with.

Swimming against the tide is always the punting clue and, although punter land is predicting a shootout, it could very well prove not the case. Under 54 points would definitely be my main bet of the night.

As you may have gathered by now, I am very much in the Patriots camp and, with fitness doubts surrounding star tight end Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady will be heavily reliant on pocket rocket Wes Welker. Welker proved he could handle the big occasion when completing eleven receptions in the Super Bowl in 2008 and the line over 84.5 receiving yards looks like an achievable goal for Mr Welker. Let’s just hope that Brady gives him the ball after the Frank Gore fiasco a fortnight ago.

Welker is also 16/1 to take the MVP and, if Brady at 5/4 doesn’t get the nod, Welker is in with a live shout.

Finally, my favourite Super Bowl market has to be, “Who the MVP will thank first.” Now 9/2 about God seems awfully big to me… let me remind you the Super Bowl is played in America by Americans! I just have to back that; it would be a sin not too!

My Big Bets

Under 54 points @ 10/11 – 6 points win

Wes Welker total receiving yards over 84.5 yards @ 10/11 – 4 points win

MVP Tom Brady @ 5/4 – 2 points win

MVP Wes Welker @ 16/1 – 1 point win

God to be MVP’s first thank you @ 9/2 – 2 points win