Reflections for the New Year

The machine, which has turned fearless layers into meek followers and intrepid punters to opinionless lambs, controls the prices throughout the betting industry. I refer, of course, to the exchanges and, in particular, Betfair. The media constantly refer to the bookies shortening selections or reacting to events. Stop it! the punters through the exchanges set the prices and the bookies all fall into line. Opinion is redundant as everybody must go under the machine price and it is all rather tragic. The industry has lost its soul and has become a rather dull place to work.

The two big hurdle races over the festive period have left me a bit bemused. I can’t quite get a handle on Hurricane Fly and struggle to place him in the pecking order amongst the top two mile hurdlers. The punters were clearly impressed with his comeback saunter and have him as favourite for the Champion and I find this amazing as, whilst his win told us he is fit and well, that’s all it did. It was meaningless in terms of form, like must of Hurricane Fly’s victories and, while this is hardly his or his connections’ fault, how can he possibly be favourite on the back of this run?

Darlan was allowed to go off at an amazing price for his comeback as people got rather carried away with Countrywide Flame’s Newcastle win. Good judges were making a very strong case for him and Darlan, who for me is simply a better horse, was opposed. It is difficult to price up races when conditions are likely to dominate but the Christmas Hurdle was a classic example of the new sheep-like mentality. For me Darlan was at least 7 lbs superior to Countrywide Flame. So allowing for conditions and the fitness edge that Countrywide Flame had, I was looking at a 2/1 each of two scenario. On the off the prices of 6/4 Countrywide and 3/1 Darlan were very hard to fathom. In the days before the exchanges any punter who can see and read would have backed Darlan but these days everyone suspects that something is amiss with Darlan or that the mysterious ‘they’ know what’s going on. The best horse in the race by quite a way was allowed to go off at a ridiculous price because the sheep like betting community have giving up thinking for themselves.

The reaction to Darlan’s victory by the punters was also hard to fathom. He beat a field he was fully entitled to beat and was cut dramatically for the Champion. Now as low as 3/1 for an ultra- competitive event with dangers lurking everywhere, he firstly has got to get there and if he does then he must be bigger on the day of the race. The 3/1 quote from one of the leading layers is just wrong and clearly Darlan is the one they want running for them. So both Darlan and Hurricane Fly, generally 7/2 each of two, head the market and, at 5/4 coupled represent a tremendous laying opportunity. It is no certainty that both will make the gig and even if they do, you should be fairly confident of beating those odds on the day.

Finally what is going on at ATR now they have lost Ascot to rivals RUK? The channel have become obsessed with Irish racing and tend these days to give it precedence. I don’t pretend to know its agreement with the Irish Racing authorities but I suspect they get it very cheap in return for full coverage. I can vividly remember squinting at the top corner of the TV screen trying to watch a valuable and prestigious sprint from Ascot as ATR concentrated on a bumper from Clonmel! Amazing, simply amazing and, with that kind of editorial policy, it was only a matter of time before Ascot went elsewhere. I am convinced that their viewers like Irish racing but I am even more certain that they would want British racing to be given precedence. It is an absolute no brainer but sadly, ATR can’t grasp it.

The other issue with ATR are the delays with its satellite feed which are so long that the term ‘live’ really should be removed. I have no idea why this should be so bad but they really do need to try and sort this out. It has got to the stage where you cannot watch with Betfair on as 1.01 is on offer with two furlongs to go. The ATR pictures are as much as ten and on average seven seconds behind reality – which is simply unacceptable. It’s a good job it’s free to watch.