STAR HORSE RACING PREVIEW: Cheltenham Festival 2023 | Day Four

A horror show on Day 3 – the less said the better!

Onwards to the final day, and hopefully a better showing! Thanks to everyone for reading and hopefully you’ve had a good week.

Speaking of tipsters, congratulations to our final four in the knockout competition! See the finalists below:

https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/cheltenham-knockout-tipping-competition/

Don’t forget to check out the final Davy Russell blog of the week either:

DAVY RUSSELL blog: Cheltenham Festival FRIDAY

And last but never least, take advantage of our Every Second Counts offer, which gives you money back (upto £50) as a free bet if you finish second in every Festival race. Very handy or backers of Shishkin and Stumptown, to name two horses on Thursday!

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2023 Cheltenham Festival, Day 4 
Cheltenham Racecourse
Live on ITV 1 HD from 1.00pm, and Racing TV HD from 10.00am with Mark Your Card

1.30 – Triumph Hurdle (2m1f) (2m179y)

Blood Destiny is yet to run in graded company, but he’s shaped like a top-class prospect in two deeply impressive wins, showing a rapid turn of foot to beat dual winner Sir Allen and then dismantling a field which included subsequent Grade 2 Adonis winner Nusret and Tuesday’s Boodles winner Jazzy Matty at Fairyhouse. His jumping wasn’t the most fluent there, but the Closutton team will have worked on that extremely hard since and the New Course will suit his massive engine – and the rain that’s hit Cheltenham has come with perfect timing.

Lossiemouth was extremely unlucky at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Gala Marceau (now hooded) and can reverse the form but there may not be that much between them here especially if Gala Marceau can settle better this time. Ascending and Gust of Wind were well behind there and aren’t expected to reverse the form. Another Willie Mullins runner – Zenta – has an obvious engine, as she showed when beating Hypotenus at Fairyhouse, but her jumping was extremely ragged there and this is a step up in class. However she’s open to massive improvement.

Jupiter Du Gite was sensational on his UK debut at Newbury but lost his head here on Trials Day and has to keep calmer this time whilst this is a huge ask for UK debutant Jipcot.

2.10 – County Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (2m1f) (2m179y)

Willie Mullins has won this six times and could have the answer this year. Two of the last three winners have been lightly raced novices from Closutton and Hunters Yarn was most impressive when landing a Navan listed hurdle, with good novices Imagine and Inothewayurthinkin well beaten. He’ll need to jump better here, but if he can put in a clean round then he should relish this test and he could take some stopping.

Mullins has also won this with experienced horses carrying big weights, and if Sharjah can put his best foot forward then 155 is a very fair mark. He may have been a bit flat in the Red Mills but this big field test should give him plenty of cover and a decent gallop, ideal conditions for him based on all the evidence we’ve seen over the years.

2.50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (3m) (2m7f213y)

Lots of promise in this race which has a rich recent history. Favori De Champdou has hit a new level since stepping up to this trip, impressing when he put four and a half lengths between himself and Letsbeclearaboutit in a Grade 2 at Limerick (2m7f, soft to heavy) over Christmas.

A bumper winner on good to yielding, and a dual winner on yielding to soft, there are no ground worries for him and he should relish Cheltenham too, and has the progressive street fighter profile that often takes this prize.

Henry De Bromhead’s pairing of Hiddenvalley Lake and Monty’s Star in a Clonmel Grade 3 (Hiddenvalley Lake 6lbs better off today) must be seriously respected whilst Corbetts Cross has shown the class to drop back to 2 miles and win a Grade 2, having made light work of a handicap hurdle the time beforehand.

Three Card Brag has been crying out for this trip and received a form boost when Absolute Notions (behind him in Naas Grade 2, when he was runner up to Inthepocket) took second in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, and he is a worthy second favourite. Embassy Gardens relished the step up in trip at Thurles when winning by a wide margin and should enjoy a slog if we get one.

3.30 – Gold Cup (3m2½f) (3m2f70y)

A fantastically competitive renewal with several having a realistic chance. Galopin Des Champs starts out as the one they all have to beat after his wide margin Grade 1 wins this season, and the way he came home in the Irish Gold Cup (Stattler second) suggested hat he won’t lack for stamina. A calmer horse now than previously, it is hard to find faults but this looks a strong renewal of the Blue Riband and he is untested in a slog.

After his sensational week, Henry De Bromhead’s A Plus Tard has shortened up in the betting, which is no particular surprise. If he’s in last year’s form then it will take a stunning effort to stop him, but his preparation (sick when pulled up in Betfair Chase, has not run since) is too offputting to forgive and this race promises to be more of a grind than last year, when – in relative Gold Cup terms – they sprinted home on a decent surface.

Bravemansgame put in a devasting round of jumping when he won the King George (was left clear by the final fence fall of L’Homme Presse, but getting the better of the argument) and Paul Nicholls’s eight-year-old is stronger than ever. He must be a huge each/way player.

This should be run at a faster pace than last year, so proven strong stayers have to be given extra consideration. Last year’s Grand National winner Noble Yeats didn’t travel through the Cotswold Chase when behind Ahoy Senor and Sounds Russian, but he was conceding 3lbs and 6lbs respectively to the pair and was never better than in the final furlong. He’ll probably need to keep in touch better today but it’s interesting that cheekpieces have been refitted, soft ground is no issue for him, and if he gets a proper pace then few will finish more strongly. The worry is if he enjoys Cheltenham, and whether he can stay in touch to be close enough.

Stattler couldn’t lay a glove on Galopin Des Champs last time out but that race developed into something of a sprint thanks to a canny ride from Davy Russell on Fury Road upfront, and he finished well to take second on the line. As a National Hunt Chase winner, this ought to be much more suitable for him and a real pace to run at (which he hasn’t enjoyed the last twice) should bring him into place contention at the very least here. He was giving 8lbs to Minella Indo when just beaten over 2m6f in the New Year’s Chase at Tramore and should reverse that form fairly easily.

Conflated has not been a top class chaser for long – he was a shock winner of the Irish Gold Cup last year – but he’s been a high class horse since then, finishing a creditable second in the Betway Bowl at Aintree and landing the Savills Chase with ease at Christmas. Runner up Kemboy is not the top level force of old but third Fury Road gave Galopin Des Champs something to think about at the Dublin Racing Festival and it’s possible he’s going under the radar here, all things considered. He shapes as if the trip won’t be an issue and there’s no major ground worries for him; 12/1 could be big.

Protektorat was a creditable third in this last year when perhaps a little weak and unsuited by the way the race played out, and he was apparently underdone when fourth in the Cotswold Chase. He must produce a career best here however, as he won a weak renewal of the Betfair Chase in November and might have a bit to prove. The rain has come for Royale Pagaille who shouldn’t be underestimated, but he was 14 lengths behind Bravemansgame in the King George and must find a career best to get involved.

Hewick is a grand horse for connections but surely wants better ground, and with resldorado Allen doesn’t look good enough.

4.10 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup (3m2½f) (3m2f70y)

There are several possible angles into this, most starting with Vaucelet, and Billaway, the two leading hunter chasers on the Island of Ireland. Many believe Vaucelet would have beaten Billaway at Punchestown in their Champion Hunter last April but for smashing into the last fence, and the young horse is favourite here after overcoming a slow pace to beat Dorking Cock at Down Royal. His chances are obvious although he may be short in what appears to be a deep field for the contest.

Yours truly doesn’t have enough point to point knowledge to put up a selection here, but the two that caught the eye were Famous Clermont (has demolished smart hunter chasers the last twice) and Chris’s Dream (high class for Henry de Bromhead, won two points with ease).

4.50 – Mares’ Chase (2m4½f) (2m4f127y)

Allegorie De Vassy has looked a powerhouse in her two chasing starts but she faces a very solid match in Impervious, who had too many gears for the smart Dinoblue (second in Grand Annual on Wednesday) before getting the better of the smart gelding Journey With Me in the Madigan Group Novice Chase last time. That form looks excellent here and she has rock solid claims.

Jeremys Flame has improved hugely this winter and is a major threat whilst Riviere D’etel would be much shorter if at her best and could be an each/way price if one can forgive her flop last time at Carlisle. Elimay won this last year but hasn’t raised a gallop in three starts since and perhaps has seen her best days whilst Zambella was no real match for Jeremys Flame at Huntingdon in January.

The free going Magic Daze is very talented but this trip would be a major worry for her chances.

5.30 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (2m4½f) (2m4f56y)

The closing contest and one with a touch of class – six winners of this race have turned out to be graded horses, most being over fences. It often takes a strong stayer here with plenty of class and Cool Survivor could be just the horse. A listed winner at Cork over three miles, he had no answer to Hiddenvalley Lake but he ran with credit when fourth in the Nathaniel Lacy at the Dublin Racing Festival, and the stamina he showed there (and on previous start) suggests he should relish the climb upto the hill here. Sam Ewing is also a great booking.

It was hard to turn down Imagine, whose form with Inothewayurthinkin and Hunters Yarn reads well, whilst Might I is well handicapped and Irish Hill has been extremely progressive. Spanish Harlem is open to lots of improvement whilst No Ordinary Joe is a fascinating contender if bouncing back from his Betfair flop considering his fine efforts in the past.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

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RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Blood Destiny 2 pts win in 1.30 Cheltenham at 6/4 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Hunters Yarn 1 pt win in 2.10 Cheltenham 1 pt 9/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Sharjah 1 pt win in 2.10 Cheltenham at 8/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Favori De Champdou 1 pt each/way in 2.50 Cheltenham at 9/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Conflated 1 pt each/way in 3.30 Cheltenham at 12/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Stattler 1 pt each/way in 3.30 Cheltenham at 11/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Impervious 2 pts win in 4.50 Cheltenham at 7/4 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Cool Survivor 1 pt win in 5.30 Cheltenham at 9/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (MAR 2023): LOSS -21.98 points

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