STAR HORSE RACING PREVIEW: The Grand National 2023

A winning second day thanks to Inthepocket and Pic D’Orhy, setting us up nicely for the big one!

It was great to see Davy Russell land a big prize with Gerri Colombe too – a fitting victory for one of the best jockeys of the modern era too.

Speaking of Davy, here’s his blog for today and thoughts on Galvin in the National:

DAVY RUSSELL blog: Grand National Saturday!

Before that, don’t forget to enter our free YES/NO competition for the big race, with the first prize of a £500 free bet up for grabs – just click below!

THE GRAND NATIONAL YES/NO: Win £500 FREE BET!

There won’t be space for all 40 horses in this preview, but if you want to look through the full field then find our Pinstickers’ Guide here:

GRAND NATIONAL: Star Pinstickers’ Guide

Weather/Ground: The rain came yesterday and added with 4-5mm of watering from Aintree, turned the ground soft. A dry National day is expected but the ground looked testing and soft ground performers would start at an advantage.

🏆 5.15 – Grand National (4m2½f (4m2f74y) 🏆

The race we’ve been waiting for! As we have a pinstickers guide, this will focus mainly on my selections – and some verdicts on the other leading contenders.

Don’t forget – especially if you’re backing an outsider – that we offer each/way extra places here, although the standard terms are offering returns on the first six home for each/way purposes.

There’s also our great ‘All Over The Place’ offer, meaning that you can get up to £25 of your place stake back if your horse completes the course but finishes out of the first six, an offer which looks even more generous when one remembers that 19 horses completed in 2017 and 2019, and 15 in the past two years.

Winning back-to-back Nationals is a nearly impossible feat (bar Tiger Roll) but Noble Yeats was having just his eighth chase start when winning as a seven-year-old novice last year and he’s since proven himself to be a graded performer, winning a Listed Chase and the Many Clouds over the Mildmay fences in great style.

Having followed that up with fine runs in the Cotswold Chase (third) and Gold Cup (fourth), he arrives in brilliant form; The worry is his weight – he’s 19lbs higher and carrying 11-11 – but in the modern race it is possible to carry big weights to be placed at least (5 of the first six carried 11-2 or more last year) and he can surely be seriously involved again at the least for each way purposes.

Le Milos has only been with Harry Skelton for three runs, and he’s been transformed, bolting up from a decent yardstick over 3m at Bangor before taking the Hennessy at Newbury, and he shaped well on his prep race when sent for home too soon at Kelso (was well clear after last and tired on run in). Stamina is a minor concern, but it was likely that a lack of conditioning cost him more and he jumps and travels brilliantly whilst the ground won’t be a bother either.

It’s simply impossible to leave out Corach Rambler, who’s the pick of the weights and a two time winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. He’ll need to stalk through the field here which – along with Derek Fox’s troubled prep – isn’t totally ideal, but his form stacks up, he’s a sound jumper and Lucinda Russell knows exactly what this test, presumably the aim for a good long while, takes. At a price of 9/1 with seven places, he has to be included.

For a relative outsider, Velvet Elvis was sixth in the Irish National last year on just his fifth chase start, and after a difficult winter, he’s bounced back with an impressive win at Fairyhouse before a creditable second to Any Second Now in the Webster Cup. He was getting 3lbs from him that day but now gets 20lbs, and he looks to have gone under the radar here on that basis.

Of the others: Any Second Now will go well again but he might be carrying too much weight at his age. Delta Work and Longhouse Poet took to this test brilliantly last term and are well handicapped, although they might need everything to go right to improve their results. Coko Beach could go well for a long way here but Harry Cobden will need to conserve his energy very well and he’s 5lbs higher here.

Mr Incredible is a powerful finisher, although the start is a worry and so is the possibility of him getting too far behind like Delta Work did last year. Late gamble Ain’t That A Shame has a fair mark and is an interesting contender, although he’s been swamped late in two big 3m handicaps this season whilst The Big Dog could well have been shorter here if he’d stood up in the Irish Gold Cup.

Galvin is a great ride for Davy Russell but he’s 7lbs worse off with Delta Work from the Cross Country and perhaps for this test the rain staying away would be better.

Gaillard Du Mesnil has a great profile and racing weight here, although it’s a slight worry that he ended up with so much running to do at Cheltenham in the National Hunt Chase, after which Willie Mullins worried that this could possibly come too soon for him.

Grand National Prediction:

1. Corach Rambler
2. Noble Yeats
3. Le Milos
4. Velvet Elvis
5. Delta Work

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1.45 – Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m (1m7f176y) (Mildmay)

Jonbon completed the Cheltenham – Aintree double last season and has been found a decent opportunity here with El Fabiolo and Saint Roi both absent. Notlongtillmay could try to test his stamina, but Jobon stays 2 miles well and his form is a fair way clear of his rivals, including Calico, Marvel De Cerisy and Fusain.

2.25 – Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (3m½f (3m149y)

A number of horses here reoppose from the Pertemps Final, where Good Time Jonny passed 18 horses between the last two hurdles to win going away. A 5lbs rise for that win appears to be generous and he’s sure to take a massive amount of beating if in the same form. If Mill Green (3rd in Pertemps) is over that effort then he’s also well handicapped here. An Tailliur was sixth there and won’t be too far away although his form is all on decent ground.

West Balboa won a gruelling Lanzarote Hurdle (only four finished) and the attitude he showed then was highly promising for this test. She shaped as if she’d be worth trying at this trip on that occasion and is hugely unexposed – it’s hard to split her and Good Time Johnny.

Outlaw Peter was a disappointment in the Lanzarote but has picked up the winning thread since and might be well treated off 135 here.

3.00 – Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (2m4f)

A really competitive renewal here where Irish Point could be the answer. He took advantage of generous weight terms when landing a Grade 3 at Naas last time, having finished fourth at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Il Etait Temps, Inthepocket, and Dark Raven the time before. He’d previously finished a creditable second to Champ Kiely in the Lawlor’s Hurdle at Naas, and ran Marine Nationale to a head in the Royal Bond, so he’s got several strong pieces of form here and the ground won’t be an issue either.

Dark Raven was ahead of the selection at Leopardstown but the way he faded after the last in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle didn’t suggest he wanted a step up in trip and that form can be reversed.

Hemes Allen smashed the Dawn Run winner You Wear It Well in emphatic style when taking the Challow Hurdle before disappointing at Cheltenham in the Ballymore. He should be forgiven that effort and looks a major player here. You Wear It Well has had a brilliant season and must be respected although she’ll probably face more pace pressure here and must reverse form with Hermes Allen.

Letsbeclearaboutit shaped really well in the Albert Bartlett and is an interesting contender here if over that effort whilst Crambo has bounced back from a disappointment in the Challow Hurdle with two impressive wins. Katiera and Authorised Speed are respected but they might want better ground.

3.35 – Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m½f (3m149y)

This is a wide open race with a whole host of possible winners. Four of the first five in the Stayers’ Hurdle (Sire Du Berlais first, Dashel Drasher second, Flooring Porter fourth, Home By The Lee fifth) and it’s easy to make a case for any of them here. Home By The Lee’s chances were ended by a terrible mistake at the sixth flight, and if he avoids such a blunder then he can surely get closer to the principals.

Marie’s Rock was a huge disappointment in the Mares’ Hurdle when she failed but if she’s back to the form of her Reelkeel win (beat Dashel Drasher by six lengths, Brewinupastorm well behind) then she’d be a huge player here. Soft ground is no problem for her at shorter distances but over this trip it may be a slight negative for her.

Champ is 11 now but retains a lot of his ablity as shown by his battling win over Paisley Park in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury. That form – and his third in the rearranged Long Walk – doesn’t look as strong now here. However, he has missed Cheltenham and goes well fresh, so has solid each/way claims.

Monmiral is interesting back over hurdles although maybe this trip isn’t ideal and Meet and Greet could be interesting based on his strong Irish form in December and February here, although h does need to reverse form with Home By The Lee here.

4.15 – William Hill Handicap Chase (Registered As The Freebooter Handicap Chase) (Premier Handicap) (3m1f) (3m210y) (Mildmay)

A suitable warm up for the National; an open handicap chase which will take some solving. Cheltenham disappointments Beauport, Midnight Rivers and Nassalam all bring strong pre Festival form to the table but they must bounce back from those poor runs and it’s possible the handicapper has found them out.

Coconut Splash may be an improver at this distance whilst Gold Cup Bailly – one of the bigger improvers in the race – could have a chance if getting onto the front end here.

The three to concentrate on might be Kinodo Kwetu, who’s had a win operation and a tongue tie fitted since his Ascot disappointment, and Eldorado Allen, who’s dropping back in class from Graded company, and Shakem Up’Arry, who ran very well in the Plate to finish third, when he looked like 3 miles could be worth a try.

6.20 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-6yo) 2m1f (2m209y)

A wide-open renewal here and a whole host of possible contenders. Captain Cody will need to settle better than he did at Cheltenham when sixth in the Champion Bumper, but if he does then he sets the form standard and this track could suit him too. He’s beaten stablemate Blizzard Of Oz (clear winner at Cork last time) twice and should go close here if over his Festival effort.

Paul Nicholls has won two of the last three runnings, so his Centara has to be respected and Fergal O’Brien’s Go To War beat a subsequent winner in style at Uttoxeter in October before being saved for this. Gordon Elliott’s had an up and down week but his pair of Pour Les Filles and Samui have to be respected here.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

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RECOMMENDED BETS – Grand National (all with each/way extra)
BACK Noble Yeats 1 pt each/way in 5.15 Aintree at 17/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Corach Rambler 1 pt each/way in 5.15 Aintree at 17/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Le Milos 1 pt each/way in 5.15 Aintree at 14/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Velvet Elvis 1 pt each/way in 5.15 Aintree at 30/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Other
BACK Irish Point 1 pt win in 3.00 Aintree at 13/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Home By The Lee 1 pt win in 3.35 Aintree at 10/3 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Captain Cody 1 pt win in 6.20 Aintree at 6/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (APR 2023): PROFIT 8.82 points

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