STAR CRICKET PREVIEW: The Ashes 2023 | Fifth Test

England’s hopes of an Ashes comeback were heartbreakingly ended by rain that left the fourth Test as a draw and ensured Australia retain the urn, but they can take some sort of revenge and end the series in style with a win at The Oval in the fifth and final test.

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England v Australia
5th Men’s Test, Ashes Series
The Oval, London
Thursday 27th July – Monday 31st July
Live on Sky Sports Cricket HD from 10.15am Thursday

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The discourse around Australia’s retention of the urn is already well underway, but there’s little doubt the hosts had been in the ascendancy since the second test. England, rejuvenated by the addition of Chris Woakes and Mark Wood at Headingley, were comprehensive winners of the third test and were dominant for three days at Old Trafford, where Australia were 61 runs behind the hosts in their second innings with just five wickets left.

Despite an excellent pitch and largely favourable early conditions, England’s attack limited Australia to 317 in the first innings before dismantling the Australian attack in the second, with Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins conceding 392 runs between them at an average of 5.22 an over.

Pat Cummins in particular crumbled under the relentless assault of Zak Crawley and Joe Root as England put their foot down in the first innings, with Australia’s fielders increasingly ragged and unable to decide between trying to prevent the flow of runs or field aggressively to take wickets.

Cummins’ captaincy has been under the spotlight over the past two tests and there has to be a worry about fatigue on his part as well – he is the only quick to have played all five Tests so far on a tour that began with the World Test Championship final against India – and even a nine-day break between tests didn’t look to have refreshed him at Old Trafford, albeit in conditions just perfect for batting.

With Scott Boland ineffective and Todd Murphy unused at Old Trafford – leaving Travis Head to go for 52 runs in just seven overs – the Australian attack now looks the weaker of the two whilst a long batting line-up at Old Trafford didn’t pay off, with no batter able to pass 51 and Australia conceding a 275 run first innings lead.

On a decent pitch with reasonable conditions that was a worrying effort and whilst Marnus Labuschagne and Mitch Marsh had strong tests with the bat, Alex Carey and Cam Green have struggled badly at the crease since the opening test and unless they improve the Aussie batting line-up appears weaker than English one now.

Thanks to having Josh Tongue and Ollie Robinson as possible swaps for James Anderson or Stuart Broad – not to mention the benefit of two spin options – Ben Stokes has options with the ball that should keep England fresh, and they look the best bet to end up on top.

The weather ruined our England wager at Old Trafford and will play a part at The Oval, with showers forecast for each of the days at the time of writing, but there is much less rain set to hit The Oval than Old Trafford and there should be enough time for a result. In addition, cloudy overhead conditions will be a boost to an England bowling attack with looks in better shape than Australia’s.

After the disspointment of #TheAshes washout at Old Trafford, how's it looking for the final test at The Oval?

Low pressure close to the UK will bring threat of showers but there should still be a good amount of dry weather for play each day.https://t.co/n9xEz1gjUl | Simon pic.twitter.com/hy88SDrhpj

— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) July 24, 2023

To guard against a washout, take the 4/5 on England draw-no-bet.

Batters

England’s batters cashed in when Australia’s didn’t last week when the sun came out on a great pitch, and generally speaking The Oval’s pitch has been a helpful one for batting first before becoming harder in the second innings with variable bounce and spin. Australia made 469 in the first innings when winning the World Test Championship thanks to monster scores from Steve Smith (121) and Travis Head (163), and then 270/8 declared with Ravi Jadeja taking 3 wickets as the surface offered more turn.

It would be no surprise if the middle-order batters made hay again especially if the new ball bowlers get as much assistance as the weather suggests, so Ben Stokes and Mitch Marsh make appeal. Stokes has been in fine touch since the first innings at Lord’s with scores of 155, 80, 13, and 51 whilst Marsh has scored 118, 28, 51 and 31no since his return to the squad. He edges out Travis Head on value grounds to be the top first innings batter.

Bowlers

A competitive heat for both sides here. Chris Woakes and Mark Wood have made the difference for England since their arrival in the squad, but Woakes reportedly was complaining of quad stiffness (having pulled up extremely sore after bowling 35 overs at Headingley) whilst Mark Wood would be playing a third match in a row if selected.

With Stuart Broad having four tests in the legs that could open things up for Ollie Robinson, but maybe that market is best watched.

For Australia, Josh Hazlewood could be the key figure. Hazlewood took 5/126 at Old Trafford when others struggled, following on from 3 wickets at Lord’s from 18 overs (compared to 21.3 for Starc and 25 for Cummins), and he could be in the best physical shape to end this tour on a high given the burden Cummins has carried through the series, whilst Starc may be feeling his efforts too. Hazlewood isn’t injury-proof either – he’s been managed through the series – but the fact he only bowled once at Old Trafford should keep him fresh.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

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RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK England Draw No Bet 5 pts at 4/5 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Ben Stokes Top England Run Scorer (1st Innings) 1 pt at 6/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Mitchell Marsh Top Australia Run Scorer (1st Innings) 1 pt at 11/2 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Josh Hazlewood Top Australia Wicket Taker (1st Innings) 1 pt at 3/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (JULY 2023): LOSS -48.61 points

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