STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens

If we are looking for an adjective to describe this matchup then it would be explosive as rookie QB Jayden Daniels and his Washington offence have run and passed their way to the most points in the NFL (155) although their opponents the Ravens are not far behind having already clocked up 147 points, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Baltimore games average 54.6 combined points per game, which is 2nd in the NFL. Washington games average 54 combined points per game, which is 3rd. However, this will be the stiffest test to date for Daniels and the Commanders offence particularly if they want to run the ball.

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The Commanders ride into Baltimore on the back of an unexpected four-game winning streak which sees them at 4-1 and sitting on top of the NFC East. There are a lot of similarities between the two opposing quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson not only due to the style that they play in (both are dangerous runners) but due to the numbers that they are putting up although the comparison is an odd one as Jackson has been in the league since 2018 and Daniels is just five games into his NFL career. However, Jackson and Daniels are the only two players in NFL history to average 200-plus yards passing and 50-plus yards rushing over their careers, it will be a question of whether Daniels can still attain those numbers when he’s as deep into his career as Jackson. So far he’s shown plenty of promise but has had a run of “soft” defences to play against the Ravens will present a tougher task. We haven’t seen Daniels truly play from behind in weeks, as the Commanders have beaten four teams with a combined 6-14 record.

This looks a tougher test for Daniels although he does come up against a Ravens defence that has been struggling against the pass allowing the seventh-most points per game this season (25.2). In fact, no defence has given up a greater percentage of explosive passes than Baltimore’s, which is giving up a big gain on 17.8% of dropbacks this year. Historically though the Ravens have dominated young quarterbacks. Since John Harbaugh became coach in 2008, the Ravens are 23-7 (.767) against rookie starting quarterbacks, which trails only the Steelers (24-5). Baltimore prides itself on how it disguises coverages, which can keep a first-year quarterback off-balance. With Dean Pees joining the Ravens coaching staff this week as a senior defensive advisor (Pees was a former Ravens defensive coordinator) there could well be some new looks that Daniels will face and whilst the Ravens have been easy to pass on, running on them has been a more difficult task. This game is going to lie into Daniels hands, and he’s going to need to beat Baltimore through the air.

Yes, he’ll be able to scramble occasionally, but it’s unlikely he’ll be given the space other defences have afforded him. Since 2022, Baltimore have only given up more than 50 rushing yards to a quarterback once, that came in Week 4 of the 2022 season when Josh Allen put 70 on them.

Washington prefers to attack on the ground and Baltimore has stifled every backfield they’ve faced this season.

Defensively, the Commanders will have to continue their recent improvement if they are to slow down a Ravens offence that is averaging five scoring plays per game, tied for 2nd in the league. Washington’s run defence ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1) and 22nd in yards per game (130.0). The Commanders are coming off their best showing, allowing only 104 yards versus the Browns, but Cleveland are a long way away from the Ravens when it comes to running the ball with the NFL’s leading rusher Derrick Henry in the backfield and the shifty QB Lamar Jackson equally capable of destroying a defence with his legs. The Commanders have allowed an NFL-worst 24 carries of 10-plus yards, while the Ravens own the most such carries (28). Washington are allowing 4.8 runs of 10 or more yards per game, the most in the NFL.

Talking of one mobile QB in Jackson he features in a Star Sports Boosted Specials with another agile QB in the Eagles Jalen Hurts with both players to score a TD boosted from 7-2 to 4-1.

There is no doubt that the Washington offence has been one of the most efficient in the NFL and the “they haven’t played anyone” epithet was firmly put to bed last week when they put 34 points on a Cleveland defence which would still rank in the top 10 in the league. They accomplished that feat while rushing 34 times to just 28 team pass attempts, which has been a consistent theme with this team through the season’s first five weeks. Now they face a Ravens defence which has been one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL, so the burning question is does offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury alter the game plan or stick with Plan A and hope it works.

If they stay with the ground game they are most unlikely to have RB Brian Robinson available who got banged up against the Browns last week and missed all of the second half and has been very limited at practice this week. The fact that Robinson was missing did at least give us a peek at how the Commanders backfield will look against the Ravens as if expected Robinson is absent. It looks as though Jeremy McNichols would assume the traditional RB role while Austin Ekeler would continue to operate as the primary change-of-pace and clear passing down back. Whoever is in the backfield they face a brutal matchup against this Ravens run defence. If there is an area where they are vulnerable to running backs then it’s definitely in the pass game which would bring Ekeler far more into the equation.

The Washington pass game which is going to have to be successful here has multiple moving parts with four WRS and three TEs seeing active service on a weekly basis. Whilst there are plenty of players involved in the Commanders offence it’s very much WR Terry McLaurin who is the one to trust and rely on after a slow start to the season. McLaurin hauled in 4-of-8 targets for 112 yards on Sunday, his third straight game with a solid return.

Deep-ball specialist McLaurin leads the NFL in Air Yards share (57%), while Baltimore has given up the second-most 20+ yard receptions (23), basically the weak spot in the Ravens defence is in the passing game and they are particularly susceptible to the deep ball, it won’t be a surprise to see McLaurin getting on the end of a couple of long bombs from Daniels especially if game script dictates that when they are behind.

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The Ravens should have their way on the ground against Dan Quinn’s defence. Washington are bottom five in both success rate and explosive runs surrendered against designed runs. They are happiest on offence when they can control the game environment through their run game with Jackson and Derrick Henry real threats on the ground. Henry carried the ball 25 and 24 times in Weeks 3 and 4 against the Cowboys and Bills, two defences ranked near the foot of the league in yards allowed before contact and yards allowed per carry when they met. The Commanders run defence presents the Ravens, Jackson, and Henry with a very similar opportunity. Henry ranks third in carries (95) and leads the league in rush yards (572). When given the office Henry can erupt as we saw against the Cowboys (151 yards) and the Cowboys (199 yards). Washington have been tagged by opposition running backs for the following stat line so far 110/581/3 (5.3 YPC).

Five games in, Henry ranks No. 1 in the NFL in rushing yards (572), No. 2 in carries (95), No. 1 in rushing touchdowns (6), and No. 1 in 20+ yard runs (7). Given those numbers it’s no surprise to see Henry feature in another boosted Star Sports Special “RB Bankers” which also features the Eagles Saquon Barkley, and the Packers Josh Jacobs to score a TD and is now 10-3 from 27-10. All three RBs have what can only be called plus matchups on Sunday.

The Baltimore pass game is a difficult one to get a read on. Zay Flowers is the clear top option as after 4 catches for 30 yards in Weeks 3-4, Flowers bounced back to grab 7-of-12 targets for 111 yards on Sunday. Flowers will always get targets as long as the Ravens want to and need to throw the ball but they would much prefer to run the ball and control the game which always leaves the Baltimore WRs and TEs in a state of flux. Even though everything on the surface suggests that Baltimore will run successfully here while controlling the scoreboard, this is also a great matchup on paper for Flowers should there be enough Jackson dropbacks.

If as expected the Commanders control the game through their run game against one of the softest run defences in the NFL and therefore also have a stranglehold on the time of possession it will see the Commanders forced into a situation which they have had to address since Week 1 and that’s playing from behind. We’ve seen the Ravens fail in similarly advantageous spots before, think the Raiders in Week 2 but they appear to have more momentum now and their defence could cause the Washington offence to become very one dimensional here.

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