STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Wind the clock back and it’s eight months since these two met in Super Bowl LVIII and Mahomes and the Chiefs ended victorious with a walk-off touchdown in overtime, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Much has changed for both franchises since that game that gave the Chiefs back-to-back Super Bowl victories and the chance to bid for an unprecedented three-peat. At 5-0 Kansas City have made a good start in that quest and remain the only undefeated team in the AFC and by the time the game starts, depending on the result of the earlier Lions/Vikings game be the last undefeated team standing.

Despite the changes for both franchises the Big Three players on each side remain The Chiefs with Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones and their counterparts from the 49ers, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa. Kittle and Kelce who could both play big parts in this game feature in a Week 7 Star Sports Player Special which offers the pair at 11-5 to combine for 150+ receiving yards.

But it’s the changes, for the Chiefs especially that look to be an important part of this rematch. The Chiefs offensively are very different, yes Mahomes and Kelce remain but their wide receiver corps is a very changed animal and possibly the biggest change has come at left tackle (responsible for protecting the blind side of Mahomes) where the Super Bowl LT Donovan Smith hasn’t played a snap since. That’s left tackle spot is now the responsibility of the second-year player Wanya Morris.

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For the 49ers, it’s the changes on the defensive line that are the most striking with three of the four that started the Super Bowl now with other teams, it’s just Bosa that remains. The other major loss/change is the fact that the 49ers offence has operated all this year without RB Christian McCaffrey, CMC was THE major factor in the San Francisco offence and his absence has meant their efficiency and the way they have approached games offensively has changed through the first six weeks of the season.

The Chiefs are the 10th defending Super Bowl champion to start 5-0 the following season and they will be looking to continue their dominance over the 49ers here. The Chiefs have won all four meetings between the teams since Kyle Shanahan took over as coach in San Francisco in 2017, including wins in the Super Bowl following the 2019 and 2023 seasons. The Chiefs are seeking their third 6-0 start in franchise history after previously doing it in 2003 and 2013. One factor that the 49ers will be aware of is the record of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid when coming off a bye week which stands at 21-4. Give Reid extra time to prepare for a game and it’s almost certain that he’ll be at the top of his game and it must be remembered that the 49ers are seeking their first back-to-back wins in a season that has so far gone WLLWLW and they would have expected to be better than their 3-3 record.

Both sides have had their struggles on offence this year, Kansas City have converted 38.9% (7-of-18) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, 29th in the league, while the 49ers are not much better on that same metric having converted 44.4% (12-of-27) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, 25th in the league. Kansas City have won 11 straight games, playoffs included, while scoring 27 points or fewer in each game. The only team to do that in NFL history is the 1928-29 Packers.

The bulk of the scoring problems that the Chiefs have had render them a very different side from the one of several years ago which was a high-powered offensive affair and that’s not the case anymore. The Chiefs game plan is now built on defence that can control the game with the offence being rather more measured and one that picks it’s places to attack and attack they will if the game is close in the 4^th quarter. Of course they still have the best quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes but his rather depleted (the Chiefs have had plenty of offensive injuries already this season) and changeable personnel have rather tempered Mahomes usual production. This week against the 49ers, the Chiefs are likely to be pushed to score points more than they have been in the past few weeks, the 49ers have scored 23 or more points in five of their last six games.

Mahomes is of course capable of raising the level of any offence and his efficiency can’t be called into question and he faces a 49ers defence that has been rather hit-and-miss this  season and Mahomes in the past has enjoyed playing against the 49ers. He has faced the 49ers four times in his career (4-0) and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all four games. He has had 314, 423, 286, and 333 yards passing in those games.

With Isiah Pacheco lost through injury the Chiefs run game looked as though it was going to descend into a three-man RB committee but returning Chief Kareem Hunt has distanced himself in that competition and now has control of the KC backfield. Against the Saints Hunt continued his Chiefs revival turning 28 touches into 117 yards and a touchdown. San Francisco have played the run well in general but they do look vulnerable through the air to RBs and Hunt could well exploit that angle.

Alongside Hunt, it will be Kelce and another blast from the past JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is on his third period with the team who are expected to provide most of the offensive production. Smith-Schuster caught 7-of-8 targets for 130 yards back in Week 5 before the bye, which included a 50-yard catch and run. It was Smith-Schuster’s first 100-yard game since Week 7 of the 2022 season. After a quiet start to the season Kelce has gradually seen his production and target share increase catching 9-of-10 targets for 70 yards in Week 5 against the Saints. The injuries and lack of reliability in the Chiefs wide receiver corps has certainly forced the Chiefs to use Kelce more and they will be encouraged to do the same here with Kelce’s last three stat lines with the meeting providing plenty of encouragement as Kelce has gone 9/93/0, 6/43/1, and 6/98/0.

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The loss of a player of the importance level of Christian McCaffrey would have derailed plenty of NFL offences but it has to be said that despite the red zone travails the 49ers offence has been operating at a fair level. A lot of the credit for how the offence is running has to go to QB Brock Purdy who came through a rather insecure performance against Arizona two weeks ago in a game the 49ers managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to throw for 255 yards and three TDs against Seattle. He faces another tough task here though against a Steve Spagnuolo coached Chiefs defence that has allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt (13th) and has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just two games to open the year. It will be interesting to see how Spagnuolo and his D approach this rematch. The Chiefs blitzed Purdy on 46.3% of his dropbacks that night and he did better against the blitz than when the Chiefs didn’t blitz him, they have blitzed at a much lesser rate this year though so it will be interesting to see what Spagnuolo’s tactics are this time around against Purdy.

Without CMC the 49ers run game could have been expected to suffer but Jordan Mason has stepped in admirably before he was forced out of the Seattle game with a shoulder injury. Mason is expected to suit up this week but he’ll face a tough task against the Chiefs coming in off the injury. The most rushing yards a running back has against the Chiefs this season is 46 yards while facing Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson. If Mason were to miss the 49ers do have some adequate cover in the backfield department and we know that they will remain committed to running the ball no matter who the RBs but to put scoreboard pressure on the Chiefs offence they are going to have to make things happen through the air with the passing game.

With Mason, if he does play, still having doubts about his injury that could force the 49ers to use WR Deebo Samuel even more out of the backfield with his ability to add yards after the catch a vital one and he’s shown that he still has that explosiveness that can break a game apart. WR Brandon Aiyuk has been rather boom-or-bust this year and it may well be that TE George Kittle will be the most important cog in the 49ers offensive wheel. Kittle has been Purdy’s favourite target in the end zone this season and Kittle has found the end zone in four straight games now. Kansas City have struggled against TEs this season and the Chiefs have allowed the most catches per game (7.4) to opposing TEs and the most yards receiving (81.8). It would not be a surprise to see Kittle have another big game here.

Overall this match shapes up like a giant chess match where ball control and field position are going to count for plenty as is the ability to make the most of red zone chances with both sides having struggled to convert their numerous chances in that part of the field this season. The Chiefs due to their lack of real elite playmakers can’t let this game get away from them while the 49ers may well have to move to a more pass orientated offence to land a punch that would knock out the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 25-8-1 ATS (76%) in games where he closes as an underdog or favourite of 3 or fewer points and his performance could be the difference in the Chiefs maintaining their unbeaten record in another Chiefs/49ers game that shapes up to be as close as Super Bowl LVIII was, maybe we even get overtime again.

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