STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are several games of this ilk in the NFL Week 18 maelstrom where the season ends, or has ended for some of the teams, while others are searching for that one last win that will propel them into the playoffs and next week’s Wild Card Round, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

In this case the two protagonists are the Saints in the role of the end of the road side, their season having been virtually over for the past few weeks, with the Buccaneers, looking to gain that one last win which will keep their season and hopes and dreams alive.

A victory  on Sunday over struggling NFC South rivals New Orleans would give the Bucs (9-7) a fourth straight division title and ensure the team begins postseason play with a home game. Winning and securing a playoff berth is clearly the No1 priority for Tampa Bay but there are a few alternative narratives that deserve highlighting with the game. The first is getting WR Mike Evans to some significant reception and receiving numbers. Alongside the win the surging Bucs would also like to see Evans match Hall of Famer Jerry Rice’s record with an 11th consecutive season with 1,000 yards receiving. Evans, the only player in league history to begin a career with 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons, would also a break tie with Hall of Famer Randy Moss for the second-most 1,000-yard seasons receiving all-time. Rice is first with 14. Despite missing three games and most of a fourth with a hamstring injury, Evans enters Tampa Bay’s regular-season finale with 915 yards.

Alongside the record is also a financial incentive for Evans who will cash a $3M bonus if he hits 70 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving and there is no doubt that Evans represents the best chance the Buccaneers have to do damage in the passing game.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield said it’s important to try to help the team’s career receiving and scoring leader keep the impressive streak alive and Mayfield himself has had an impressive season with plenty of financial rewards within easy reach.

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Mayfield’s contract awards $500,000 for finishing either top 10 in the league or top five in the NFC in each of the following categories:

– Passer Rating (Currently 4th)

– Passing Touchdowns (Currently 2nd)

– Passing Yards (Currently 2nd)

– Completion % (Currently 2nd)

– Yards per Attempt (Currently 5th)

It looks very likely that Mayfield will be bring home the entire $2.5M haul against a porous Saints defence that has had trouble against the pass all season long and may lack the motivation to stop either Evans or Mayfield.

The last time these two meet the scoreboard was on fire, with Tampa Bay winning 51-27 in New Orleans, scoring the final 27 points unanswered. Last week’s 48-14 win over the Panthers suggests Tampa Bay may be peaking at the right time.

Mayfield doesn’t only have Evans to work with on the offence and in fact it’s quite scary to think what the Buccaneers offence could have been like if all the weapons had been healthy all year long. For all that, the passing game may be the focus of the game this time Tampa Bay also have a strong ground game with RB Bucky Irving looking to now looking to be the one who is controlling the backfield. Irving notched 190 yards on 24 touches Sunday. Coming out of the bye in Week 12, Irving has handled 18, 28, 17, 19, and 24 touches in his healthy games played and Irving has handled 65.2% of the backfield touches in his past three games without restrictions. The Tampa Bay backfield combined for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns when these teams played in Week 6. Running backs have scored 51.4% of the touchdowns scored against New Orleans, the highest rate in the league. As much as the Buccaneers value the contribution of Irving it may be the case that they can save him a little here for the post season.

Looking at the Saints they are hobbling into Week 18 at 5-11 having started the season 2-0 just falling apart since then, adding a miserable three wins. To be fair, they have been riddled with injuries losing plenty of key players for whole portions of the season. Quarterback rookie Spencer Rattler who has replaced the injured starting QB Derek Carr has looked far from comfortable although he actually has a matchup here that should favour him. The Bucs have been one of this year’s premier pass funnels, as their opponents have regularly chosen to avoid their run defence and attack their weak secondary. It’s hard to see the Saints generating much on the ground via the plodding Jamaal Williams and with Rattler providing the bullets for their wide receiver corps that is decimated by injuries the hopes of them testing the Buccaneers defence even at their weak point is limited.

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If there is one “bright spot” for the Saints offence it may come via WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling who has various monetary incentives that he has a shot at in this game. Two of them look unlikely as he needs 11 catches more to hit the 25 he needs to bag $250,000, likewise the 172 yards that he needs for the same amount of money looks out of reach. He could though attain the one TD that he needs to earn $250,000 – MVS earns $250,000 at 3, 5, and 7 TDs. Currently, he has 4.

This game is almost certain to be a win for the Bucs. It’s tough to know how badly a team will run it up in a game they easily control, but it would make sense for the Bucs to take their foot off the gas and rest their key players if this game looks like it’ll be a walkover. The Saints have been held below 20 points in five consecutive games entering Sunday and a sixth such game would break a tie for their longest such single-season streak since a nine-game streak in 1996. Over the last two weeks, the Saints have been outscored 10-59.

This looks an ideal situation for the Buccaneers to seal the division and enter the playoffs as the No4 seed and host either the Vikings or Lions the following week.

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