STAR RUGBY PREVIEW: Six Nations 2025 Top Tryscorer

One of the great benefits of the Six Nations is the variety of markets on offer and the puzzle to be top tryscorer offers major value, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

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Top Tryscorer

Betting on the top try scorer market for the 6 Nations is a tempting but tricky challenge; There are good prices on offer, but with just five matches, there are incredibly tight margins – and indeed as the past winners’ column shows there have been three occasions when the award has been shared between one or more players, and ties for the places are also common.

Don’t forget that you can request a player for this market, too – so there’ll be plenty of big prices on offer should you want to take a chance on a flyer.

Thirty-four different players have either been top tryscorer outright or shared the honours in the 25 editions of the Six Nations and just over half (18) of those were wingers, so it makes sense to start there.

This market has changed rapidly in recent days as Damien Penaud – one of the world’s best wingers and certainly the most in-form one, after crossing the whitewash six (yes, six) times against the Sharks to take his tally to ten tries in four Champions Cup matches for Bordeaux, after five tries in last year’s tournament.

It’s a sign of how good France are that he’s 8/1 – and a tempting price at that given the six places on offer with starsports.bet – to give his rivals a game and a beating but the markets and stats suggest he’s missing out on a prime opportunity to get on the scoresheet against Wales and his temporary absence could inject value into an already tight market.

With Penaud absent Louis Bielle-Biarrey has become favourite and he looks worth backing at 7/2 to open the portfolio up. He scored in three of France’s November matches against Japan, Argentina and New Zealand, has five Champions Cup tries this season, scored a brace against Stade Francais away in the Top 14 on his last domestic start, and has one of the quickest turns of foot in the entire Championship.

Whilst we’re on the subject of the French, Antoine Dupont has to be worth a shot at his current price. He’s scored four Champions Cup tries for Toulouse, will be at the centre of all France’s attacking play, and playing alongside Romain Ntamack is sure to make him even more difficult to handle for defenders.

Scotland have one of the best backlines in Europe and both Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe have to be strongly considered. Darcy Graham topped the tryscoring charts for the Autumn Nations Series with five tries and his ability to get involved with early phases of play in the centre – something vital that will be become even more important with Sione Tuipulotu now absent.

Duhan van der Merwe has eight tries this season in all competitions, including scores against Fiji and Australia from the Autumn Nations Series, and if the increased workload for Graham means he’s the last man more often, then 11/1 for the honours is probably too big compared to 9/1 for his compatriot, especially given he tied for this with five scores last year. There would be absolutely no harm in backing both, however.

Ireland can’t be left alone in this market easily and James Lowe and Mack Hansen are one of a number of contenders they have. Lowe scored four tries last year and has to be considered a major contender whilst Hansen has two scores in his last three appearances and got on the scoresheet against Ulster in his last appearance, with 18/1 looking too big for one of Ireland’s starting wingers.

Those who think Italy may have a good championship ought to consider Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane, whilst for England Ollie Lawrence and Tommy Freeman caught the eye at big prices. Both have had exceptional seasons and look likely to be involved in all phases of England’s attacking play. Wales might struggle to create enough for Josh Adams or Liam Williams.

Past Winners:
2024: Dan Sheehan, Duhan van der Merwe (Ireland and Scotland, tied for five tries)
2023: Damian Penaud (France, 5 Tries)
2022: James Lowe, Damian Penaud, Gabin Villere (Ireland, France and France, tied in 3 tries)
2021: Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland, 5 tries)
2020: Charles Ollivon (France, 4 tries)
2019: Jonny May (England, 6 tries)
2018: Jacob Stockdale (Ireland, 7 tries)
2017: Eight players tied for first with three tries (Danny Care, Keith Earls, CJ Stander, Stuart Hogg, Craig Gilroy, Johnathan Joseph)
2016: George North (Wales, 4 tries)
2015: Johnathan Joseph (England, 4 tries)

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Top Team Tryscorers

Those recommended above in the outrights are of obvious interest to take top tryscoring honours for their sides – there will be plenty of interest in Dupont at 7/1 for example for France.. For England, Ben Earl may be a value shout if the Red Rose can get their maul clicking whilst for Ireland some will be keen on their big forward pack taking a role.

Backrows Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier are worth considering for Irish backing value-seekers whilst for Wales Josh Adams could easily take a hold on proceedings in what the market thinks will be a low count and the 9/4 on him could be a good way to support the Welsh.

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RECOMMENDED BETS – Top Tryscorer

BACK Louis Bielle-Biarrey 2 pts at 7/2 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Duhan van der Merwe 1 pt each/way at 9/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Antoine Dupont 1 pt each/way at 14/1 (⭐ ?  CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Mack Hansen 1 pt each/way at 18/1 (⭐ ?  CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Top Team Tryscorer

BACK Josh Adams Top Wales Tryscorer 2 pts at 9/4 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (JAN 2024): +15.84 points

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