STAR RUGBY PREVIEW Sat: Australia v The British & Irish Lions

After a tantalising build-up, the big event will finally begin when the Lions take on the Wallabies in the first test, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

After opening their tour with a 28-24 defeat to Argentina in Dublin, Andy Farrell’s squad have since won five on the spin in Australia against the Western Force (54-7), Queensland Reds (52-12), NSW Waratahs (21-10), ACT Brumbies (36-24) and an AUNZ Invitational XV (48-0).

For a long time many wondered if the Wallabies, who were knocked out at the pool stage of the 2023 World Cup, and have slumped to eighth in the world rankings – would even be competitive, although the appointment of Joe Schmidt and a domestic revival of sorts are strong positive signs.

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Australia v The British and Irish Lions (Three Test Series)

The Wallabies can also take heart from the fact that the Lions have not blown through their opposition (the international XV apart) in the way the scorelines would have suggested. The Western Force were blown away, but the Lions margin over the Reds came after the break, they struggled with an error-strewn performance against the Waratahs, and the Brumbies pushed them much harder than the markets expected.

Australian rugby has improved in the last year, with the Wallabies having moved on from the nadir of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, led by the Brumbies. They finished the Super Rugby Pacific season in third place (six points clear of the Reds and a further 18 points clear of the Waratahs), with nine wins across the campaign, the highest of any Australian side, and also beat the Hurricanes 35-28 to reach the semi-finals and before giving the top-of-the-table Chiefs a run for their money when knocked out in the semis.

The Brumbies side that outperformed the handicap (30-32 points on average) was missing six members of the Wallaby squad, so Joe Schmidt will have plenty to take from their performance against a strong Lions side that made felt had the look of the first test team at the time.

Australia had a more than reasonable tour of the Northern hemisphere late last year, beating England and Wales before defeats to Scotland and Ireland, with the arrival of Schmidt, who turned around Irish fortunes years earlier, improving the team significantly.

They will need to be much improved on their extremely tight warm-up win against Fiji two weeks ago, when a last-gasp try by captain Harry Wilson saved Australia’s blushes.

Fiji were dominant in the second half in Newcastle, where Australia also lost fly-half Noah Lolesio, and a lack of cohesion (coach Joe Schmidt had referenced that this was Australia’s first game in six months, and they’d had just five sessions beforehand), was evident at points.

There were bright spots with the performances of halfback Tate McDermott, Max Jorgensen, and the midfield of Len Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii – the same pairing that upset England – showing plenty going forward, but the Wallabies will need to find a new level not previously seen under Schmidt if they’re to take series glory.

The Lions have shown moments of quality, and have stamped their class on opponents after the break on occasions through the tour, but bar their performance against the invitational XV they have yet to put two halves together of the same quality on tour so far, even with the strongest sides. Andy Farrell has – as is always the case with the modern Lions – riches to pick from, although he’s suffered some bad injury blows with Blair Kinghorn set to miss at least the first test, whilst the loss of Elliot Daly has hurt versatility, and Tomos Williams’ hamstring injury after an early game was a cruel blow.

A worry for the visitors has been the back row, where penalty counts and disruption from the opposite sides has been a problem through the warm up games bar last Saturday’s easy win. More precision will be needed to keep on the right side of New Zealand’s Ben O’Keeffe, Italy’s Andrea Piardi and Georgia’s Nika Amashukeli in the three tests coming up.

The aerial battle may provide Australia with opportunities. Aukuso Suaalii is a high ball threat all on his own whilst Joe Schmidt is a lineout master who will have plenty of data to work with after six games for the opposition. A slow start also needs to be avoided – before their win against the invitational XV, The Lions have conceded a try inside 11 minutes in four of their five matches – another slow start would spell trouble in the tests, if history is anything to go by.

The first test sides and the rigours of a full tour beforehand should enable the Lions to have more cohesion – on paper – for the first test, giving a crucial head start if odds of ¼ for victory in the opening test with starsports.bet are to be believed.

The 5/6 for a 3-0 Lions win is tempting but Australia can be expected to improve significantly for the first test and the return of key figures in the pack, and it’s not impossible Schmidt can find the progress needed to take a win in either of the two tests, especially if the Lions do have breakdown and high ball problems.

The series top tryscorer market is of interest, with Lions dominating the betting. Dan Sheehan’s excellent tryscoring form makes him of interest but Tommy Freeman has had a breakout year and the supply chain of Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu, and Huw Jones could give him plenty of opportunities in the first test and beyond.

Freeman, who scored scoring a try in every match for England during this year’s Six Nations, landed a double against the Reds and has enjoyed being able to look for the ball and come off his wing. If the first test markets are to be believed, then the Lions could be at their most dominant there and even one try may give him the platform for an advantage.

Huw Jones has impressed all tour and has a strong each/way chance, but a flyer at a much bigger price is taken on Jamison Gibson-Park at 25/1 with starsports.bet. He’s yet to score a try on tour but he had an injury issue beforehand, so has needed time to get upto speed, and with Andy Farrell going for power in the first test, he could get a couple of chances to cross the whitewash. In 2021 no player scored more than one try in the test series, and Rieko Ioane’s two tries were the most of any player on either side in New Zealand four years ago. George North and Israel Folau tied with two in 2013 when the Lions last visited. Just a couple of tries could take this market and with four places on offer, it’s worth the chance.

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Australia v The British and Irish Lions, First Test (11am, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane)

The teams for the first test are a tale of two stories; for the Australians, a what could have been with some crucial absences in key positions, and for the visitors, key late calls that supplement a side without a Welsh member in the 23 for the first time since 1896, despite the brilliance of Jac Morgan in a crumbling Welsh side and on the tour so far.

The hosts have suffered a savage double blow in the pack, with back-row Rob Valetini and lock Will Skelton both missing the clash due to respective calf injuries, and to add salt in those wounds for Joe Schmidt, Langi Gleeson, who started in place of Valetini in the back-row for Australia against Fiji earlier this month, has also been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.

The serious neck injury that took out fly-half Noah Loesio is another major absence, given that Schmidt handed him the 10 jersey for 12 of his 14 tests as Wallaby coach, and replacement Tom Lynagh, who hasn’t played for almost five weeks due to a broken thumb, has only featured in three Tests so far in his career, all as a replacement for a combined total of 60 minutes.

On the other hand, the Lions – powered by a core of eight Irish players, seven of whom ply their trade for Leinster, and with a Scottish 10/12/13 axis that includes the superstar ‘Huwipulotu’ centre combination alongside Finn Russell – ought to be much more gelled, and the Wallabies will do well to overcome that advantage even infront of their own supporters.

With such big gaps in personnel and cohesion, the visitors can’t be opposed for the first test, and indeed, they might be at their strongest. The Lions have started slowly and finished strongly, but with the Wallabies having to make key changes, they could also struggle to find their strid,e and Andy Farrell’s men can win both halves if able to reach the break in front. Take them to pass a nine-point handicap for smaller stakes, and to win by 11-20 points before what’s likely to be a more competitive outing next week.

Teams:

🇦🇺 Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Tom Lynagh, 9 Jake Gordon; 1 James Slipper, 2 Matt Faessler, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 4 Nick Frost, 5 Jeremy Williams, 6 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 7 Fraser McReight, 8 Harry Wilson (c).

Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Tom Hooper, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Andrew Kellaway.

🦁Lions: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 James Lowe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 5 Joe McCarthy, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Jack Conan.

Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Ben Earl, 21 Alex Mitchell, 22 Marcus Smith, 23 Bundee Aki.

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RECOMMENDED BETS – 1st Test
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BACK British and Irish Lions to win by 11-20 points inclusive 1pt at 14/5 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (JUL 2025): -12.80 points

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