STAR FOOTBALL PREVIEW Sun: Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

There was a lot of optimism from the Bears ahead of the season but an 0-2 start leaves them in a tough spot, staring at an 0-3 opening and that sort of record usually condemns you to another year without playoff football, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

New HC, Ben Johnson hasn’t had the greatest start to his career in Chicago and has seen his team blow an 11 point 4th quarter lead in their opening game loss to divisional rivals, Minnesota and then returning to Detroit where the offence that he used to control handed him a 52-21 blowout. The Bears have allowed 73 points in the last five quarters. The 52 they gave up against Detroit were three shy of the franchise record and the most since a 55-14 loss to Green Bay in Week 10 of the 2014 season.

It’s not the sort of start the Bears were looking for under new coach Ben Johnson.

The Bears have gone under their win total now in four straight seasons, the longest active under streak in the NFL. Since 2019, the Bears have a 5-0-1 record against their win total, with their last over coming in 2018 under Mitch Trubisky. Dating back to 2013, the Bears are 10-1-1 to their win total under. Tough times once again in the Windy City, especially as they are in a strong NFC North where the Packers and Lions both look amongst the elite in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

After starting their season with a tough trip to Philadelphia, the Cowboys returned home for a Week 2 matchup with the Giants and got involved in a shootout, in a crazy game that saw 41 points scored in the 4th quarter and Dallas winning in OT with a 46-yard FG from K Brandon Aubrey. The lead changed hands five times in that last quarter.
That win for the Cowboys saw new Dallas HC Brian Schottenheimer record his first win in charge and that will have him breathing a little easier and may even turn up the pressure a little more on Johnson. But Schottenheimer can’t afford to relax and he’s still got to deal with a defence that gave up 450 yards through the air to a Russell Wilson led Giants offence and with Micah Parsons traded away to Green Bay they weren’t able to generate much pressure of front. And the secondary wasn’t exactly locking things down, either.

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So we enter this game looking at two defences that were absolutely torched in Week 2, while this profiles as the best matchup so far this season for both passing offences. All of that means that we could well see this statistic upheld. The Bears and Cowboys have faced off eight times in the last 20 years, and the over is 8-0 in those games, going over the total by 13.7 PPG. One of the two teams has scored 30+ pts in their meetings in 7 of the eight games.

Dallas QB Dak Prescott has started the season well playing at MVP level and the first two quarterbacks to face the Bears defence this season have gone on to earn NFC Offensive Player Of The Week honours. It’s not just the raw numbers, 549 passing yards, which would be more without five drops, either. He is also completing 75% of his passes on third down and 64% of his passes when pressured. Last week against the Giants Prescott completed 38 of 52 attempts (73.1%) for 361 yards with 2 touchdowns (and an interception), adding 17 yards rushing. Dak does well vs. bad teams. He’s 39-12 SU (77%) vs. teams under .500 SU in his career, winning those games by 10.1 PPG. When Dak faces a team that just lost by more than one possession (9+ pts), he is 24-6 SU in those games, including 14-3 SU since 2020. Positive signs for Prescott and the Cowboys offence.
Prescott is seeking his 18th game (and second straight) with 350 passing yards and two touchdown throws. If he achieves this feat, Prescott would pass Tom Brady for second most in the NFL since 2016 (behind Patrick Mahomes’ 21).

Prescott is likely to have plenty of time to throw here also as the Bears can’t rush the passer they are 31st in pressure rate and when they have not gotten pressure, they have allowed a 75.6% completion rate and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. The Bears have had issues defending downfield throws through two weeks. Passers have completed 73.3% (11 of 15) of throws 10 or more yards downfield against them with 3 touchdowns and the Bears secondary this week was dealt a blow when they lost top CB Jaylon Johnson to a potentially year-ending groin aggravation in Week 2.

Although, the Cowboys passing offence has lived up to expectations, the run game has probably exceeded them. Javonte Williams leading the way and their offensive line ranking 10th in the league at 5.21 adjusted line yards per carry. Williams once again held control of this backfield on Sunday, turning 24 touches into 130 yards and a touchdown. He rushed 18 times for 97 yards and a score, catching 6 of 7 targets for 33 yards. He faces a Chicago run defence that has allowed 142 yards and a touchdown to the Minnesota backfield in Week 1 and then 169 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Detroit backs in Week 2.

With Prescott in full control of his offence they may this week be able to unlock the one part of the offence which has so far stalled a little – explosive deep throws, but with time to throw and a run game that will keep the Bears defence honest this could be the week we see Prescott take some deep shots. Prescott has a fair cast of pass catchers at his disposal with WR CeeDee Lamb always looking a threat. Lamb has gone over 100 yards in each of the opening two games, and with the Bears not only missing their No1 CB Jaylon Johnson, they are also without slot corner Kyler Gordon and therefore Lamb will have matchup advantages from both slot and boundary alignments. And if the Bears do roll with a more zone-heavy script, look for Lamb to find open grass as a catch-and-run target for quarterback Dak Prescott. It’s not only Lamb that will prove a threat though as the Cowboys also have WR George Pickens and TE Jake Feguson ad Prescott targets and the TE Ferguson is a favourite target of Prescott, including playoffs Ferguson has caught at least five balls in eight of his last nine games with Prescott. Ferguson got back on the right track Sunday, collecting 9 of 12 targets for 78 yards. The game script and overtime boosted all of the Dallas counting stats, but Ferguson has had two games where he has been an integral part of the Dallas pass offence.

One of the other narratives to this game is the return of former Bears HC Matt Eberflus to Chicago after he became the first ever head coach of the Bears to be sacked during a season. Now the DC in Dallas there will be nobody better knowing their offence and more specifically their rather enigmatic QB Caleb Williams who continues to frustrate and delight the Bears fanbase in equal measure. At the end of the day, Eberflus’ Dallas defensive personnel may simply be too deficient to cause Chicago’s offence an array of problems, but there’s little doubt this game matters to Eberflus more than most.

It’s fair to say that HC Johnson has not been impressed with his teams attitude or work ethic so far and went public on that fact this week, calling out the team’s practice habits and on-field effort and also hinting that may lead to some changes with playing time for certain personnel. Against that backdrop he has to deal with a QB in Caleb Williams who has been more miss than hit so far. Williams has opened the season completing fewer than 65% of his passes for fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in each of the opening two games this season. Pressure has been his undoing early on. Under pressure, Williams has completed 43.8% of his passes (23rd) for 4.4 Y/A (27th) with an interception and 6 sacks. He will be facing a more passive defence here as Dallas are 23rd in pressure rate and 26th in blitz rate. Dallas have struggled when they have not gotten to the quarterback as was shown when Russell Wilson ripped them apart last week. This is a get right spot for Williams but given his past form it is a leap of faith to support him apart from with his legs where faces a defence has allowed a league high 78 scramble yards this season. Williams has 85 yards on the ground this season on 11 carries and he’s dangerous as an open field runner.

Overall the Bears run game has been ineffective and although the Bears lead the NFL in yards before contact per rush attempt (1.89), they are 31st in rush EPA (expected points added) and 32nd in rushing success rate. All of that means that the offensive line is blocking well but main RB D’Andre Swift is operating very inefficiently. Here Swift faces a Cowboys run defence that has held Eagles and Giants running backs to a combined rushing line of 41/160/2.

The inefficiency of the run game puts the pressure on Williams to get the pass game going and fortunately he has found a wide receiver who he has real chemistry with in Rome Odunze. Odunze was a big hit in Week 2, catching 7 of 11 targets for 128 yards with a pair of touchdowns and he’s clearly emerged as the No1 WR in this offence. Given the deficiencies and porous nature of the Dallas secondary Odunze could have a field day here and it’s not hard to see him being used in a variety of roles and looks a real threat on the deep ball against a Dallas secondary that have allowed a league-high 8 receptions on throws of 20 or more yards to wide receivers. The emergence of Odunze has rather seen D.J. Moore take a step back down the pecking order but he’s still a dangerous player in this situation and this is a very friendly matchup.

This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth shootout; it is just a matter of how we get there. Each offence has a lot of playmakers and well-designed schemes and route concepts, while both pass defences are reeling. Also helping the thought that this could be a contest where the scoreboard is on the move is that both teams like to play at a fast pace. Elevated pass rates, mediocre running games, defences who fail to pressure the quarterback, and secondaries with glaring holes all combine to make this a game where it will be a shock if we don’t see points making prizes.

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