STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals

Many thought that the Lions defeat by the Packers on the opening weekend of the season signalled a downturn for a side that offensively had scored points for fun over the past couple seasons, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Well, those that thought that have been brought back down to earth as since that opening defeat, the Lions have scored a touchdown on 35.6% of their drives, second in the league and won three straight games to take them to a 3-1 record. Detroit arrive in Cincinnati as double-digit favourites against a Bengals side that has had a tough start to the season especially when losing starting QB Joe Burrow for the season, once again.

The Lions offence has been humming since an embarrassing season opener in Green Bay, averaging 41.3 points per game over the last three weeks and they have all the momentum coming into this facing a team that has lost their last two games by a combined score of 76-13. Detroit have outscored three good teams Chicago, Baltimore and Cleveland by 20 points on average and will be keen to keep moving forward. The Bengals have allowed a touchdown on 29.5% of opponent drives, 26th in the league and the Lions certainly have the offence to exploit that even taking into account the fact that QB Jared Goff can have his blips on the road, especially when playing outdoors.

Cincinnati, since losing Joe Burrow in the Week 2 win over Jacksonville have suffered two heavy losses, 48-10 in Week 3 to the Vikings (a franchise record defeat) and then looking totally out of their depth versus the Broncos on Monday Night Football when they were dominated to the max, losing 28-3. Many observers of that game questioning whether the Bengals “quit” with the offence looking more than just missing Burrow since Jake Browning took over at QB. Browning since he’s been in control of the offence has thrown five interceptions and the offence is averaging a league-low 4.13 plays per drive and gone three-and-out on 12 of its 23 drives, while the defence has been on the field an average of 34:27 the past two games. If they are on the field for that amount of time versus the Lions the scoreboard will be showing a very healthy Lions total.

To illustrate how below-par the Bengals have been on offence take a look at these numbers. 24.4% of the Bengals’ yardage gained has been via rushing, which ranks 31st in the league. The Bengals are averaging 85.8 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponents, the worst margin in the league. The Bengals are averaging 1.39 points per drive, ahead of only the Browns (1.22) and Titans (1.16). The Bengals offensive line is among the worst in the NFL, showing an inability to get any sort of a push in the running game or stand up to opposing pass rushes. Bengals wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase have been rendered irrelevant since losing Joe Burrow. It’s not as though the schedule gets any easier for Browning and the Bengals after this meeting with the Lions as next week they go to Green Bay to face the Packers fresh off a bye week.

To encapsulate how hard it’s been for the Bengals on offence digest this statistic. In each of their last 2 games, the Bengals have: lost by 25+ points, had under 200 total yards, had under 60 rushing yards, been outrushed by 100+ yards and taken 3+ sacks – no other NFL team in the Super Bowl era has done that in back-to-back games.

The Bengals are also looking to break a losing streak that has lasted now a generation. Cincinnati have lost seven straight games against the Lions, with their last victory coming back in 1992, that includes four of the 7 losses coming as favourites for Detroit in this span.

There’s no doubt that it’s been a tough start for Bengals QB Jake Browning in his second spell as the starter having to go on the road against the Vikings and the Broncos both having defences that like to bring pressure. Browning has been pressured on 45.8% of his dropbacks these past two weeks. When pressured, Browning has been the league’s worst quarterback, posting a 25.8 rating. Here. He gets to start at home with a marginally easier matchup here but he’s still operating behind an offensive line that has issue run and pass blocking. Detroit have a 36.9% pressure rate (15th) and a league-high 10.6% sack rate but Browning can expect to feel the heat again.

Much was expected of RB Chase Brown this season and his role is an elite one, it’s just a pity that the production from that role is far from elite. Brown has rushed for 2.3 yards per carry, the lowest rate in the league. He is averaging 0.21 yards before contact per rush, 42nd out of 43 running backs with 25 or more rushes. In truth it’s hard for Brown to generate much more than he has behind an offensive line that is porous to say the least. He has one run of 10 or more yards on 57 attempts and the Lions run defence has been elite and given the scenario that Brown faces here it’s hard to see him improving his numbers in this game.

The state of the offensive line means that the Bengals consistently allow free rushers and that has to upset the QBs timing and ability to distribute the ball efficiently and the frustration from the main wide receiving duo of the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is palpable.

That pair are really the only hope that Cincinnati has of staying in this game. Chase, in particular, is likely to be peppered with short area targets while Higgins will be given the opportunity to make plays in contested catch situations. The Lions secondary is a little depleted so there is a glimmer of hope for the Bengals if Chase and Higgins can be fed the ball but on current form that’s easier said than done.
Goff for all his past tribulations on the road does have a full set of weapons to work with here and faces a Bengals defence that are 28th in pressure rate (29.1%) and 27th in sack rate (3.8%) and they have allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt (21st) and a 5.2% touchdown rate (20th). Goff always at his best since being allowed to operate from a clean pocket hasn’t been sacked since Week 1.

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The Bengals have been particularly vulnerable to the run and with the Lions having the 1-2 punch on the ground of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery they could be in for another tough day on the ground. The Bengals have allowed a league-high 303 rushing yards on missed tackles, not a good trend going into a game against a duo that’s one of the best in the league at making defenders miss. Detroit are likely to consistently move the ball on the ground not only efficiently, but explosively and it’s just a question then of who is going to make a bigger impact on the game, Gibbs or Montgomery, although it may be worth remembering that the latter will be playing in his hometown for the first time in his NFL career. Gibbs looks likely to provide the explosiveness and his performance against the Browns who had bottled up some good rushing attacks this year augurs well for his outlook here. The Lions should be able to impose their will on the ground, setting up close-in scoring chances. Montgomery has five carries inside the opposing 5-yard line, fourth most in the NFL and it being a homecoming game it won’t be surprise to see him given the chance to score in short yardage situations.

If the likely success in the run game persuades the Bengals to put more defenders in the box to slow down the Lions run game then if they don’t get pressure on Goff he has the arm and receivers to hurt them downfield. The Lions passing game operates first and foremost through Amon-Ra St.Brown who has six TDs over the past three games, catching at least 7 passes in each game. St. Brown leads all wide receivers with 10 red zone targets, 50% of the team total.

This may also be a situation where the Lions can get the speedy deep threat Jameson Williams going and he’s certainly one to look at in terms of having a long reception which could go for a touchdown. TE Sam LaPorta gives Goff another passing threat to work with and although he’s been quiet the past three weeks, this week he draws the most favourable matchup he has had to open the season. Teams have targeted their tight ends 26.9% of the time against the Bengals (7th highest). On those targets, the Bengals are allowing 6.8 receptions (29th) and 61.0 yards (24th) per game.

All of the above really points to a scenario where the Bengals will do well to keep the score respectable especially if they can’t maintain their drives and keep the potent Lions offence off the field. Detroit’s run-based offence will keep the clock running, but the big plays they are likely to hit should keep their drives from being overly drawn out and it’s not hard to see a world where the Lions take control and if thy do they rarely take their foot off the gas.

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