POV: What We Learned (William Kedjanyi)

Star Sports’ William Kedjanyi on what Plaid’s by-election win in Caerphilly tells us…

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Overnight, we had another big moment in British Politics as Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly by-election with 47% of the vote in a record turnout (50.4%) – Reform were second on 36% while Labour, suffering their first defeat in the area for 100 years, were miles back in third, down to 11% of the vote.

Here are the results in votes and percentages, with changes from the previous Senedd election in brackets.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid Cymru: 15,961 (+7,750)
➡️ Reform UK: 12,113 (+11,618)
🔴 Labour: 3,713 (−9,576)
🔵 Conservatives: 690 (−4,323)
🟢 Greens: 516 (NEW)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 497 (−290)
🏔️ Gwlad: 117 (NEW)
🟣 UKIP: 79 (NEW)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid Cymru: 47.4% (+19.0)
➡️ Reform UK: 36.0% (+34.2)
🔴 Labour: 11.0% (−34.9)
🔵 Conservatives: 2.0% (−15.3)
🟢 Greens: 1.5% (+1.5)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 1.5% (−1.2)
🏔️ Gwlad: 0.3% (+0.3)
🟣 UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)

Here are a few initial takeaways from the result.

🔵 Reform have lost the battle, but not the war

Reform backers who held prices of 4/7 about Reform before they finished 1/3 in our final betting will be disappointed by the result and perhaps some in the party’s HQ will be surprised by the margin of defeat, overall the picture still looks very strong for them.

Caerphilly is traditionally more liberal than most other Welsh seats. It’s Labour voting history and Plaid’s strong background performance there had told you that (Plaid finished second in this seat in 2021 (28.4%), 2016 (29.5%), 2011 (29.7%) and 2007 (25.8%), and they’d considerably outperformed their national/regional vote percentage each time.

It also has the lowest immigration rate of all Wales’ 22 councils – perhaps meaning that arguments over immigration don’t land as effectively there as they do in England. With a change to a proportional representation system next year for the Senedd elections, this experience under their belt, a big war chest and a new main opponent to target, they’ll feel very confident still about taking the most seats next year.

📊 Tactics, Tactics, Tactics

Our old friend tactical voting is back. Whilst that should not be used to underplay Plaid’s success here and the margin of it, anecdotal evidence suggests that at least some Labour voters switched, knowing the election was a two-party contest. Labour’s vote went down to 11%, whilst the number for the Green Party (albeit one that is now not as close to Labour due to that party’s rightward switch) was just 516.

🥀 If You Want Reform For A Neighbour…. Vote Labour?

On that front, Labour voters have a choice to make. Stick with the party and give the edge to Reform, even in a new List system, or hold your nose to prevent what will be a more potent surge from Nigel Farage’s party next year.

Under the new Welsh Senedd voting system that comes into effect next year, this result would produce an equal number of assembly members for PC and Reform – can Rhun ap Iorwerth squeeze the remaining Labour vote in Wales even more?

🥀 They think it’s all over… it is now!

As had been written on these pages many times before, Keir Starmer’s days as Prime Minister look numbered. With no good news in sight and a nightmare budget still to come, the most unpopular Prime Minister ever needs a miracle to turn things around and any chance of Labour managing to keep even a respectable seat total in future needs them to have success in Wales and Scotland.

Such a devastating loss in a seat that had been Labour since it’s creation (and for over 100 years), confirms what a handful of polls had bene hinting at – even under proportional representation next year, the real choice here is between Plaid and Reform. With that in mind, expect severe pressure on the price for Keir Starmer to be replaced next year.

👀 Oh Yes Prime Minister, to a New Prime Minister?

With that in mind, those who are looking at Starmer’s replacement ought to be doing the exact same in the next Prime Minister market. With a replacement feeling ever more certain before the next General Election, which would come too soon for Nigel Farage and also Andy Burnham, there’s tremendous value in using that market for your next Labour Leader selections, given how open that contest is on paper.

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Views of authors do not necessarily represent views of Star Sports Bookmakers.

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