STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams

The Lions may be at 8-5 (3-3, away) but they are still on the outside looking in with regard to the NFC playoff picture, whereas the Rams are 10-3 (5-1, home) and very much in the running for the No1 seed in the NFC, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Of course the main narrative that binds these two sides together is the one that nearly five years ago saw the Rams dump their then quarterback Jared Goff to the Lions with Matthew Stafford travelling in the opposite direction. To all intents and purposes the deal worked out well for all parties, something that is rare with trades of that magnitude in the NFL.

Stafford ultimately led the Rams to a championship, and although he is approaching the veteran stage of his career at 37 he’s arguably playing his best football and is a strong contender for the MVP award at the end of the season. He leads a potent offence and one that has 19 more plays of 20-plus yards than their opponents, the league’s largest margin, they also have 14 more plays of 30-plus yards than their opponents, 1st in the league. Stafford has already thrown 35 touchdown passes and only five turnovers and he could well be pushed into a game that lights up the scoreboard on Sunday.

Goff has played an integral role in the resurgence and rebuilding of the Lions and like Stafford he has a powerful and effective offence at his control, although due to the loss of Sam LaPorta and the shrinking role of David Montgomery it has become a more condensed one than in the past. While Stafford with his statistics is very much in the MVP conversation, Goff has a higher completion percentage and more yards per attempt.

With a victory Sunday against the Lions, the Rams can clinch a playoff spot. The Rams also have a 46% chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to ESPN Analytics. With a win against the Lions, that jumps to 60%, and with a loss, it falls to 27%. The Lions have the second most to gain or lose this week, their current playoff chances are 54.9%, which rise to 72.7% with a win and fall to 41.6% with a loss. However, December football has been good to the Rams HC Sean McVey and he has the numbers to prove it as a head coach, McVay is 27-11 SU and 26-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 9 in a row outright. Since the start of 2021, McVay is 16-3 ATS in December now.

The Rams and Lions are facing each other for the fourth time in five seasons since the trade, thanks to NFL scheduling quirks and the playoff matchup two seasons ago. These two historic NFL teams haven’t faced each other this frequently since meeting in four straight seasons from 1980-83. The Rams have lost two straight nail biters against the Lions since the calendar flipped to 2024 about two years ago, losing by just 6 pts and 1 point in each game.

This is a game though where we see two of the top offences take on each other with since Week 8, the Lions averaging a league-high 6.5 yards per play and the Rams are not far behind coming 2nd over that span, averaging 6.3 yards per play. It doesn’t take much foresight therefore to see why the total for this game is up around the 55 point mark especially as this matchup stands a solid chance of producing the most plays. Since Lions HC Dan Campbell took over the play calling on offence the of the Detroit offence has been ramped up and on the other side Stafford won’t need to be asked twice to air the ball out against a depleted Lions secondary. Stafford has averaged 45 attempts for 325 passing yards in two career games against his former team. When the Rams are pushed which has happened on a few occasions since their Week 8 bye and could well happen here it usually results in plenty of points and plays. The Rams have scored a touchdown on a league-high 35.6% of their drives. The Lions have scored a touchdown on 32.9% of their drives, 2nd in the league.

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It’s clear that even with an 8-5 record the season hasn’t gone as planned for the Lions and with the Packers and Bears ahead of them in the NFC North the way to the playoffs looks to be via a wildcard spot. Looking at their remaining schedule, the Lions are almost certainly in playoff mode already. They come into this game having scored 44 points against Cowboys averaging 7.2 yards per play with Goff easily going over 300 passing yards, although the majority of the touchdowns came on the ground. It might not be as easy here as the Rams have a solid pass defence and the last time that Goff squared off against a Rams defence they sat back in Cover 3 and told Goff to beat them. Pressure is also important and if the Rams can get pressure they can certainly unsettle Goff and the Lions do look weak on the left side of their offensive line an area that the Rams are sure to attack.

The Rams run defence is their strength but it won’t be a case of the Lions abandoning the run and the Lions will look to stay balanced and it should also be remembered that the run game sets up their play action passing game, they rank 4th in the league at play action rates. Whilst Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery used to give them a very healthy 1-2 punch on the ground it’s very much Gibbs in the bell cow role now although he is being used a lot more in the passing game and it should be noted that several running backs have had success against the Rams via the pass. Gibbs has been used far more since Campbell took over the play calling especially in the passing game and over the past five games Gibbs has 29 receptions for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Defensively, the Rams run zone heavy coverage scheme which can leave them vulnerable in the intermediate areas of the field and that was noticeable last week when Michael Wilson of the Cardinals had a massive game against them. Amon-Ra St.Brown would be a very similar type of receiver and running many of the same routes and he could be in for a big game. Jameson Williams, like Gibbs has seen an upturn in his usage since Campbell was calling the shots on offence and he is a more than capable deep threat who the Rams will need to contain on the deep ball. The Rams are a very good defence, but they also play a style that allows opponents to move the ball and have some vulnerabilities and the main focus for the Lions will be to get the ball to the likes of Gibbs and St.Brown in space and let them move the ball from there.

Any game for a team in the playoff positions is an important one but with the divisional rivals the Seahawks on the horizon next week in a game that has substantial playoff implications this contest takes on some extra kudos. The Rams have a veteran-laden team and will be well prepared for this huge matchup with the potential to deal a huge blow to a Lions team that every NFC team would be happy to see not make the playoffs.

The main part of the Rams’ offence is without doubt their passing game which runs through Stafford and his two main WRs in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua is most definitely the one who puts the yards in the box score whilst it’s Adams who puts the points on the scoreboard via touchdowns.

Amazingly last week was the first time in his career that Nacua had scored two TDs in a game. Adams is the one who has dominated in the red zone and leads all NFL wide receivers with 25 end zone targets and has scored 14 touchdowns this season, so far. These two are the core of the Rams’ offence and are in a great spot this week against a Lions secondary that has been battling injuries and just lost their leader and elite slot coverage man, Brian Branch, for the season. Nacua is the moveable chess piece in this offence cropping up all over the line, whilst Adams is a physical presence who is an elite route runner and is almost impossible to shut down in single coverage. In this matchup and with Stafford providing the ammunition, that pair are going to be hard to stop.

The backfield has turned into a true committee thanks to the elite play of Blake Corum. The Rams still view Kyren Williams as their top option, but Corum is simply playing too well to ignore right now although they face a Detroit run defence that has been stout and has limited every running back to less than 90 yards. Expect the Rams to stay committed to the run in this matchup as like the Lions they love to run their pass game out of a play action design and they rank third in the league in pass rate over expectation for the season.

Although the total is a high one here, all the signs point towards this being a game where points will be scored as they are two well-coached teams who have explosive players and dynamic offenses, both of which match up well with the schemes of the opposing defences. We could see some explosive plays from the Rams while the Lions will be relying on getting the ball to their receivers in space and gaining yards after the catch.

Any way you look at this game it looks like the best game of Week 15 and has the potential to be one of the best of the season. The last two games between the pair have been close with totals of 46 and 47 points with both sides topping the 20 point mark on each occasions, it’s not hard to see those sorts of numbers being surpassed this time in another Week 15 game that has real playoff implications.

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BACK Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER +79.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Amon-Ra St. Brown to score 2+TDs 0.5pt at 8/1 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Jahmyr Gibbs to score 2+TDs 0.5pt at 3/1 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Davante Adams to score 2+TDs 0.5pt at 3/1 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (DEC 2025): +6.38 points

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