STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Both teams will be going all out here with the Seahawks vying for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the Panthers only one game ahead of the Bucs in the NFC South, and this really is a game with playoff connotations and plenty on the line for both teams, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Both teams will be going all out here with the Seahawks vying for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the Panthers only one game ahead of the Bucs in the NFC South and this really is a game with playoff connotations and there is plenty on the line for both teams.

The Seahawks gained a massive advantage in the NFC West by beating the Rams in a controversial overtime thriller which saw their defence on the field for an energy-sapping 88 official plays. In their win against the Rams, the Seahawks had the largest fourth-quarter comeback by any team versus an opponent eight games over .500 since the 1970 merger. The Seahawks’ win gave them the inside track on the NFC West title and the conference’s top seed. But if Seattle don’t win on Sunday, they might have to head back to Charlotte in the wild-card round. They play the 49ers next week in a game that could have major implications within the division and the conference.

Hope and belief are two elements that have driven the Panthers’ season and they won’t enjoy being the underdogs again, especially at home but this season the Panthers are 8-5 SU as underdogs and 0-2 as favourites, so maybe, just maybe that underdog tag works for them. All 8 of the Panthers’ wins this season have come as underdogs — their 8th win as a dog is tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era – a record they could break this week. The Panthers are currently leading the NFC South despite being outscored by 50 points. Only 9 teams have ever made the postseason with a point differential of -50 or worse.

In the series, the Seahawks lead 9-4, with the last meeting between the two franchises seeing Seattle win 37-27 back in September 2023. We may be lucky to get such a shootout this time, although since January of 2015, the Panthers and Seahawks have faced off a total of eight times and the over is 8-0, going over the total by 9.8 PPG. Hope springs eternal that the scoreboard will be kept ticking over, although that particular outcome will be a large extent decided by the game flow and how the two QBs, Sam Darnold for Seattle and Bryce Young for the Panthers play.

Darnold certainly has plenty to play for, first of all in a team sense with the Seahawks pushing for the playoff but also personally. As with many NFL players, Darnold has monetary incentives attached to his contract and in his first contract with the Seahawks, Darnold has a host of performance, and team-based incentives. Darnold can make an extra $500,000 with a 100.0 or higher passer rating this season, plus another $500,000 apiece with 28 or more passing touchdowns, 4,000 or more passing yards or a 67.5% or higher completion percentage. Darnold’s bonuses are also tied to the Seahawks performance. If they finish in the top 10 in the NFL in total offence, Darnold gets an extra $500,000. He’ll get the same amount if they make the playoffs, which they have already clinched.

There are plenty of other incentives attached to the post season for Darnold and he certainly has a shot at maximising some of those escalators. Darnold currently has a passer rating of 100.6 with 24 touchdown passes, 3,703 passing yards and a 67.2% completion percentage. The Seahawks are eighth in total offence and they have scored 85 more points than their implied team totals, the most in the league. Darnold is 30-10 SU in his last 40 starts overall since start 2022 and the most profitable QB on the Moneyline in the NFL.

Bryce Young, the Panthers QB has no such financial incentives, but if he can get the Panthers to the playoffs in just his second season, he will gain plenty of kudos. He strained his ankle in last Sunday’s win against the Buccaneers but is expected to play. To his credit and he may have to do this again Young has 12 fourth-quarter or overtime game-winning drives since coming into the league in 2023, the most of any QB in the league. Under second-year HC Dave Canales, the Panthers are 11-5 in one-score games, tied for the fourth-best winning rate in the league since 2024. Carolina is 4-1 in overtime games under Canales.

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Seattle can clinch the NFC West this weekend with a win and a Rams loss or tie against the Falcons, as well as a 49ers loss or tie against the Bears. The Seahawks have 12 wins in their first 15 games for the first time since 2019. Seattle went 10-7 last season and hasn’t had a losing season since 2021 when Pete Carroll was HC. The Seahawks are 7-3 against NFC foes this season and HC Mike McDonald needs one road win to move into second place for the most road wins by a head coach in his first two seasons in NFL history with 14. The Panthers can wrap up their first NFC South title since 2015 with a win and the Tampa Bay loss to Miami, so both sides have plenty to play for.

The Seahawks have developed a clear way of playing on offence using plenty of play action passing to hurt teams through the air but a lot of what they do offensively has a lot to do with how dominant and aggressive their defence is. As a defensive unit they are holding opponents to the eighth fewest yards per game and second fewest points per game.

We have already touched on Seahawks QB Sam Danold but while the Panthers’ defence isn’t a formidable one they do have some talent on that side of the ball and they have been good at slowing down the type of things that the Seattle pass offence is good at. The Panthers have allowed a league-low 5.3 yards per attempt on play-action passes this season with a first down or touchdown on a league-low 27.9% of those passes, and Darnold and the Seahawks offence do use play action a lot.

Much of what they are able achieve through the air is predicated on their ground game although the backfield continues to be as close to a true timeshare as possible, with Kenneth Walker the more explosive running back and Zach Charbonnet better suited for short yardage and passing situations and it’s Charbonnet who is likely to “steal” the TDs in goal line situations. The Carolina run defence has slipped of late after starting the season as one of the league’s better units, now allowing a robust 4.5 yards per carry of late and there will be opportunities for both Walker and Charbonnet depending on the game situation. Charbonnet, in fact, needs one touchdown to become the first Seahawks player since Marshawn Lynch (2014) to have double-digit rushing touchdowns in a season.

The real playmaker on the Seahawks’ offence is WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba who leads the NFL in receiving yards this season and needs 90 yards to become the second player in NFL history with at least 90 receiving yards in 14 games within a season, joining teammate Cooper Kupp (16 games in 2021 for the Rams). You can see by the numbers that JSN has put up this year that he’s pretty much matchup proof, although here he will face two of the league’s better cornerbacks in Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. The long and physical Horn was selected as a Pro Bowler for his second straight season. The Panthers normally don’t rotate Horn to the opponent’s best receiver in large part because they have confidence in Jackson’s ability to cover out on the island. That pair versus JSN is going to be one of the key elements of this game. Backing up JSN are Rashid Shaheed who is a dangerous customer on a deep ball and more of a safety blanket for Darnold in Cooper Kupp. With plenty of injuries to the other Seattle TEs AJ Barner has been left with a near every-down role and he’s set single-season career highs in receptions (47), yards (462) and touchdowns (five), although he hasn’t go over 50 yards in a game since Week 11.

With Bryce Young at QB, the attitude of HC Dave Canales has very much been run first and to only use the passing game when he has to or the opposition, as with last week against Tampa Bay demands that you should pass first. Young has attempted more than a modest 30 passes in just two of his previous 12 games. That game plan has kept the Panthers relevant in the NFC South, currently leading the division with two games to play. It’s fair to say that Young and the Panthers offence have struggled to produce explosive plays this season and as a team they are massively outperforming expectations, highlighting what a good job Canales has done so far especially when it comes to getting home in close games.

Rather like the Seahawks backfield, the Panthers have a “dual personality” via Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. Dowdle had 13 touches for 43 yards on Sunday, while Chuba Hubbard turned 7 touches into 34 yards. Dowdle played 31 of 43 early down snaps while Hubbard played all 11 third-down snaps. This running game remained ineffective, and life doesn’t get any easier here against a Seattle defensive front that has been shutting down running games all year with Seattle allowing a league-low 3.5 YPC to running backs.

Canales may be forced to move away from his run-first policy given those statistics and the matchup but he and Young may run into another problem if they turn to the passing game. The Seahawks generate pressure at the league’s fifth-highest rate while blitzing at the sixth-lowest rate, which is a recipe for disaster for one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league. Young averages a lowly 50.3% completion rate and 5.88 yards per attempt when pressured this season. That leaves the Panthers’ pass catchers apart from maybe rookie Tetairoa McMillan as unappealing options. The Seahawks have given up the league’s seventh-fewest yards (1,807) to wide receivers. Macdonald’s unit has been susceptible to tight ends, but Carolina deploys a three-way TE three-way committee and that is a hard group to figure out.

The Panthers have been terrific in close games this season and that’s been very much their modus operandi to keep the game close and try to win it in the 4th quarter but regression to the mean usually catches up with you in those situations and that could well be the case here. Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks are now 10-4-1 ATS on the road, including 6-2-1 ATS when playing on the East Coast. Seattle have scored at least 23 points in each of the past six meetings and it’s not hard to see them doing the same again, winners of nine of their last 10, the odds are the Seahawks take care of business on the road and march towards the playoffs.

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