STAR POLITICS: Gorton and Denton By-Election

Once again, Britain is waking up to a political earthquake in a by-election result, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

The market expected a Green success in Gorton and Denton, but not in such emphatic fashion. Hannah Spencer is the party’s fifth MP, but the real headline of the night is her huge winning margin and the giant swing the party has achieved in one of Labour’s safest seats, with Reform a well beaten second, pushing Keir Starmer’s party into third, in a by-election where the Tories lost their deposit and as expected, only three parties were remotely competitive.

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🗳️ Result:

🟢 Hannah Spencer (Green Party): 14,980 (40.7%) [+27.5%]
➡️ Matt Goodwin (Reform UK): 10,578 (28.7%) [+14.6%]
🌹 Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party): 9,364 (25.4%) [-25.4%]
🔵 Charlotte Cadden (Conservative Party): 706 (1.9%) [-6.0%]
🔶 Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrats): 653 (1.8%) [-2.0%]
🛡️ Nick Buckley (Advance UK): 341 (0.9%) [NEW]
🗳️ Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party): 102 (0.3%) [NEW]
🎩 Sir Oink A-Lot (Monster Raving Loony Party): 159 (0.4%) [NEW]🇪🇺 Joseph O’Meachair (Rejoin EU): 82 (0.2%) [NEW]
🗽 Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party): 45 (0.1%) [NEW]
🚩 Hugo Wils (Communist League): 29 (0.1%) [NEW]

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📝 What did we learn?

🟢 The Greens are a national force to be reckoned with

This is just one by-election which did take place on favourable territory for the Greens – a high Muslim population with wards that had a diverse and younger population than average – but it is also 127th on the party’s target list. The Greens outperformed their Gorton and Denton total in 26 seats, most in London and Bristol, and would be likely to head into the next General Election with a much larger profile, membership base, and quality of candidate than they did in 2024 to boot.

There will be tougher tasks ahead – the party has gone in a different direction to the leadership of Ellie Chowns and Adrian Ramsay, two MP’s who managed to take rural seats and seal Conservative votes, and the Red Wall is an entirely different challenge for them, but many Labour MP’s will be looking nervously to their left and Reform won’t be writing them off either.

🥀 Keir Starmer’s time is nearly up

Keir Starmer has long been a short price to leave office sooner rather than later with starsports.bet he’s 4/11 to leave office this year and 1/8 not to lead Labour into the next election – and this result merely confirms that his departure is a matter of when, not if. On this swing there is no such thing as a safe seat left for Labour and with the Prime Minister’s approval ratings at record lows, the case for some time, it is impossible to see him being given the time to turn things around – or indeed much credit for any wins.

❎ There is a tactical route to stopping Reform….

But it is not just through Labour, whose disinformation campaign of attempting to convince voters the Greens couldn’t win in what was a three party contest backfired massively. Last year in Wales Plaid managed to defeat Reform in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly despite Nigel Farage’s party managing a 34% rise in the polls, and here the Greens managed to defeat Reform on ‘home’ turf. A 30% ceiling for Nigel Farage’s party makes them beatable in a number of areas, although a General Election would prevent a tricky tactical voting challenge – ask people who followed advice in 2019.

➡️ But they remain the leading party to beat

Nevertheless, this was a solid performance for them. They were dominant on the right here with the Tories and Advance UK losing their deposits, their vote rose by 14.6%, and they were simply unable to cope with an effective Green campaign, a high quality local candidate, a flood of activists and a 2-to-1 population imbalance in favour of the Manchester wards (Burnage, Levenshulme, Longsight, and Gorton & Abbey Hey). In 2024, Reform came second in 98 seats (mostly to Labour).

Gorton and Denton was not one of them; they finished third with 14.1%. When all is said and done, there are at least 150 better targets they’ll have on paper and the collapse of the Labour vote leaves The Red Wall at their mercy. This will also have provided more crucial experience for a party which is scaling up at pace – so the mood won’t be too glum despite Matt Goodwin and Nigel Farage’s lash outs this morning at sectarian voting.

🗳️ The next General Election just got further away

When Labour change leader, there will be a clamour for a general election from opposition parties. However, with the government’s image tarnished by nearly everything that’s happened in the 18 months since their election, and so many big problems such as housing, immigration, student loan reforms and NHS waiting lists to deal with, one thing Labour need – and do have, at least in their Parliamentary vote, is time to make progress with delivery. A new Labour leader is likely to need every second of those three years to try and improve the situation, so don’t expect an early election despite the pressure.

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Here’s the major market moves after Gorton and Denton!

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Polling Day is well underway for a three-way shootout between Labour, The Greens and Reform UK for a showdown that is set to go down to the wire according to the only two polls we’ve had in the constituency. A win for the Greens’ Hannah Spencer would be the ultimate confirmation of the progress they’ve made since Zack Polanski took over. A victory for Angeliki Stogia would give Sir Keir Starmer a real shot in the arm, especially after he blocked Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing, citing the Mayoral contest needed to replace him should he have been successful (very likely the case, although we won’t find out now). This will be a strong test case for Reform’s Greater Manchester appeal – if Matt Goodwin was to win it would service another big notice after the party took victory in Runcorn by just six votes last year.

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🗳️ We’re into the final stretch here – after an evening in Denton, here’s how I see things:

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🗳️ It’s 4pm on Polling Day – this is the current state of play as I see it. Expect more updates as the hours pass!

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For betting strategy, please do enjoy the Bet The House preview, with Nick Luck, Neil Channing and myself – find it below!

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🗳️ The demographics of this constituency will have a key role to play in tomorrow’s outcome – here’s a film on the voter populations of this seat:

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❓ What’s the latest state of play? I ran through the contenders last night:

🗳️ Gorton and Denton: Factguide

Wards and Demographic Appeal
The constituency is a “seat of two halves,” with a sharp cultural and demographic divide between the Manchester and Tameside wards.

Manchester City Council Wards:

Burnage: High student and graduate population (approx. 42%). High appeal for 🌹 Labour and 🟢 Green Party.

Gorton & Abbey Hey: Diverse working-class area. Historically a 🌹 Labour heartland, though seeing significant pressure from ✊ Workers Party and 🟢 Greens.

Levenshulme: Rapidly gentrifying with a large young professional and student community. Strongest appeal for 🟢 Green Party.

Longsight: Large Muslim community (approx. 53%). Strong appeal for 🌹 Labour, though ✊ Workers Party made major gains here in 2024.

Tameside Council Wards (Denton):

Denton West, South, and North East: Predominantly white (90%+), older demographic with high home ownership. Historically 🌹 Labour, but now seeing the highest appeal for ➡️ Reform UK in the constituency.

Demographics & National Comparison

Average Age: 46.5 years (UK Average: 49.6)
Ethnicity (White): 57% (UK Average: 83%)
Ethnicity (Asian): 27% (UK Average: 9%)
Degree Level Education: 28% (UK Average: 34%)
Home Ownership: 51% (UK Average: 64%)

2024 General Election Results:

🌹 Labour: 50.8% (18,555 votes)
➡️ Reform UK: 14.1% (5,142 votes)
🟢 Green Party: 13.2% (4,810 votes)
✊ Workers Party: 10.3% (3,766 votes)
🔵 Conservative: 7.9% (2,888 votes)
🔶 Liberal Democrat: 3.8% (1,399 votes)

🗳️ Candidates:

This by-election follows the resignation of Andrew Gwynne. There are 11 candidates on the ballot:

🟢 Hannah Spencer (Green Party) – currently ? with starsports.bet

➡️ Matt Goodwin (Reform UK) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🌹 Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party)- currently ? with starsports.bet

🔵 Charlotte Cadden (Conservative Party) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🔶 Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrats) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🛡️ Nick Buckley (Advance UK) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🚩 Hugo Wils (Communist League) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🗽 Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🎩 Sir Oink A-Lot (Monster Raving Loony Party) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🇪🇺 Joseph O’Meachair (Rejoin EU) – currently ? with starsports.bet

🗳️ Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party) – currently ? with starsports.bet

📊 Constituency Polls
We’ve had the benefit of not just one, but two constituency polls! Both of these are within the margin of error for the big three, which is larger for this type of polling than others.

Poll 1: Opinium (Feb 2026)
🟢 Green: 30%
🌹 Labour: 28%
➡️ Reform UK: 28%
🔵 Conservative: 6%
🔶 Liberal Democrat: 5%

🗓️ Fieldwork Dates: 16 – 24 February 2026
📊 Sample Size: 401 residents
📝 Note: Figures usually cited (Green 30%, Labour 28%, Reform 28%) are based on the sub-sample of 339 respondents who confirmed they are “likely to vote.”

Poll 2: Omnisis (Feb 2026)
🟢 Green: 32%
➡️ Reform UK: 29%
🌹 Labour: 26%
🔵 Conservative: 4%
🔶 Liberal Democrat: 3%

🗓️ Fieldwork Dates: 20 February 2026
📊 Sample Size: 452 residents
📝 Note: This poll utilized a mix of phone and online responses. The headline figures (Green 32%, Reform 29%, Labour 26%) represent “decided voters” only.

Local Election Context:

Manchester Wards (2024): Solidly Labour-held, though the Workers Party and Greens saw a surge in Longsight and Levenshulme.

Tameside Wards (2024): All three Denton wards returned Labour councillors, but Reform UK displaced the Conservatives as the primary opposition, taking second place in Denton West and South.

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