PRESS RELEASE: Nigel Farage 87.5% likely to be re-elected as Clacton MP

Nigel Farage is the overwhelming favourite to win the Clacton by-election, priced at 1/7 with Star Sports, implying an 87.5% chance of victory, after announcing he will resign and run again in the ensuing by-election.

The Conservatives are next in the betting at 5/1, followed by Restore Britain at 10/1, Labour at 12/1, and the Green Party at 20/1. No other party is priced shorter than 200/1.

Farage is 7/4 to be replaced as Reform leader this year, with Zia Yusuf emerging as the 5/2 favourite to be the next head of the party, ahead of Robert Jenrick at 10/3.

Flynn Goward, Managing Director at Star Sports, said: “Following Nigel Farage’s announcement that he will resign as MP for Clacton, triggering a by-election in which he says he intends to stand again, the betting suggests punters expect him to have little trouble holding onto the Essex seat.

“At just 1/7 with Star Sports, Farage is an overwhelming favourite, with the odds implying an 87.5% chance of victory. The Conservatives are the nearest challengers at 5/1, followed by Restore Britain at 10/1, with Labour (12/1) and the Greens (20/1) further back.

“Based on the current market, bettors clearly believe Farage remains in a commanding position in Clacton, and it would take an upset to deny him victory in the by-election.

“However, we make 2026 favourite at 7/4 to be the year Farage is replaced as Reform leader. Should Farage depart, Zia Yusuf (5/2) currently leads the market to replace him with Robert Jenrick (10/3) close behind.”

Star Sports – British Politics

To win seat as MP for Clacton:

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