Arsenal v Bayern Munich. Finding value.
[dropcap]P[/dropcap]rice. That’s always the dilemma isn’t it ?
The thing is, I fancy Bayern to win tonight, but the price has got too short – in my opinion.
Punters have one big advantage over bookmakers – they don’t have to play. If the prices are wrong, in your opinion, you have the option to say ‘no thanks’. Bookmakers, including Star, are obliged to price up a multitude of markets on every match and sporting event of the day.
Everything has a price – whether it’s a bet or a shopping purchase. You might fancy a new pair of jeans and more than happy to pay £50, but what if the price is £75, £100, £200 ??? at what point do you say no. It’s the same in punting, at what point is the price not appealing ?
Bayern are around 7/10 – and I wanted evens. Call me greedy, but I’m not stepping in at that price because I know in the long term it’s bad punting strategy on my side. In exactly the same way that I don’t want to take 10/11 about the flip of the coin being heads.
Of course in the short term, the coin will probably land heads, Bayern will win and critics of the value debate will trot out the line “a winner’s a winner” but I’m in the game for the long haul and I can’t bet regardless of price. So many punters look at the prices and then find a bet. Just try, working the other way round. Make a form assessment of a match, race, event and give each eventuality a percentage chance of success. Convert these percentages to prices and THEN compare to the market. (100 / percentage) – 1 = your odds. Example a 50% chance is even money.
Apologies for the math lesson – but it’s important.
So, on the basis I can’t back Bayern at around 7/10 is there another bet in the match. Of course, there are a whole host of markets.
HT-FT is always an active market and on the basis I think Bayern are 50% likely to win the match, and not afraid to score goals – then the 7/4 for them to win at HT and FT does make some appeal. The same fixture finished 3-1 to Bayern last year and although 1st leg games can be cagey (as we saw last night at the Etihad) Bayern are never afraid to play attacking football and come here in great (understatement!) form winning 20 of their last 21 matches !!!!
HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Max last 10 only)
Mar 2013 C League B Munich 0-2 Arsenal
Feb 2013 C League Arsenal 1-3 B Munich
Mar 2005 C League Arsenal 1-0 B Munich
Feb 2005 C League B Munich 3-1 Arsenal
Mar 2001 C League B Munich 1-0 Arsenal
Dec 2000 C League Arsenal 2-2 B Munich
Arsenal might just be starting to feel the effects of a tough domestic season where they are still very much involved in the title challenge. However, they struggled to get past Liverpool in the FA Cup on Sunday (and to many minds were lucky) and previously were thrashed 5-1 by the same rivals at Anfield in the League.
RECOMMENDED BET (1-10 points)
6 points BAYERN HT/FT at around 7/4 with Star Sports