AUTHOR: Star Sports Content

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (7.45pm ITV)

[dropcap]P[/dropcap]ossession might be nine-tenths of the law but it certainly isn’t when it comes to football.

A classic case was the first leg Champions League semi-final between Real Madrid and defending champions Bayern Munich which somehow ended 1-0 to Real despite Bayern having overhwelming possession throughout the entire match.

I made a mental note that night to back Bayern in the replay and that’s exactly what I intend to do tonight (Allianz Arena, 7.45pm LIVE ITV).

History shows there is seldom little to choose between these two giants of European football:

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Max last 10 only)
Apr 2014 C League Real Madrid 1-0 B Munich
Apr 2012 C League Real Madrid 2-1 B Munich
Apr 2012 C League B Munich 2-1 Real Madrid
Mar 2007 C League B Munich 2-1 Real Madrid
Feb 2007 C League Real Madrid 3-2 B Munich
Mar 2004 C League Real Madrid 1-0 B Munich
Feb 2004 C League B Munich 1-1 Real Madrid
Apr 2002 C League Real Madrid 2-0 B Munich
Apr 2002 C League B Munich 2-1 Real Madrid
May 2001 C League B Munich 2-1 Real Madrid

Another goal for Real would be a nightmare for Bayern with the away goals rule being such an important factor for punters to consider but as it stands I strongly fancy Bayern to overturn the deficit and qualify for another final.

Real are favourites on the ‘to qualify’ market and have been given a boost by the return of Gareth Bale after illness and Ballon d’Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo is also expected to start after a recent hamstring problem.

The early market moves on Star Sports showed weakness on Bayern in the 90 minute market with support coming in for the draw but I’m sticking with Bayern to make it to Lisbon and a final against either Chelsea or Atletico Madrid – more on that match tomorrow.

RECOMMENDED BET (scale of 1-10 points)

10 points BAYERN ‘TO QUALIFY’ at around 6/4 with Star Sports


RUNNING RETURN (APRIL): LOSS 4.42 POINTS

RUNNING RETURN (YEAR): LOSS 94.70 POINTS


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