Calgary Bay – my Paddy Power Gold Cup long-shot!

Grands Crus puts his reputation on the line in this Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and will need to go very close, if his connections have aspirations for him to go to the very top as a chaser. I suspect first time up is a good time to catch him and he is a worthy favorite but at around 5/2 he is very short and I suspect he will travel best but come up short.

Hunt Ball is clearly a danger for his bullish connections, but weather he will be in quite the same form after his break is questionable and I will be looking for a solid effort in preparation for the King George, when he may pay to follow.

For Non Stop was mighty impressive at Aintree and if reproducing that effort will be a serious player despite the rise. I am surprised he isn’t shorter in the market and double figure odds suggest there is a feeling that Aintree was the time to be on. Both Walk On and Al Ferof are fascinating runners but look priced up about right.

The markets for these races and indeed most handicaps tend to be dominated by the potential improvers, as punters look for an edge. As a consequence the solid older types with no secrets are very easy to back and, for me, are becoming increasingly over priced.

Calgary Bay is 25/1 generally and 33/1 in a place or two,and strikes me as decent e/w value. Hen Knight has handed in her license and now assists close friend and neighbour Mick Channon with the national hunt horses. The early results are very encouraging and I am convinced they will make a potent team. Furthermore the news that Hen does all the schooling and Mick gets them fit strikes me as a perfect combination. Very few trainers could get their horses to jump as well as Knight but there was always a feeling that she wasn’t very hard on them on the gallops. In her recent barren seasons,I lost count of the times her horses jumped well,travelled strongly and then failed to finish their races. Hopefully that will change with Channon getting them that bit fitter and if so he will have inherited some well handicapped horses.

Calagary Bay can not be described as well handicapped here but nevertheless he is no 33/1 chance. The negatives are the absence as he has an average record fresh and that career high mark. The positives are the Channon angle and his ability to jump and travel as I will amazed if doesn’t trade considerably shorter in the race.

There are many more likely winners on Saturday but the market is quite mature and Calgary Bay looks a rick at 33/1 and for me should be more like a 16 chance as he may well reward e/w support.

Good Luck!