Derby. Rain and O’Brien. Standard.
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]urned out nice again for Derby Day I see.
A deluge has hit Epsom this morning and there are more thundery showers expected throughout the afternoon. A case of when rather than if.
We can’t say we weren’t warned. Andrew Cooper, clerk of the Course at Epsom has done a great communications job via twitter in keeping everyone up to date and the first shower this morning brought a further 5mm.
It could actually end up being perfect racing ground. Last night the going was changed to Good, Good to Firm places so there shouldn’t be too many excuses.
The Derby market has been dominated by Australia since his staying on third in the 2000 Guineas. However, he has been on the drift slightly this morning.
I’d guess that’s for three reasons:
(1) The threat of further rain which will count against him
(2) Punters searching around for better priced options
(3) The form of Aidan O’Brien. He’s had a stop-start season and his last 10 runners have met with defeat.
The Guineas form entitles him to be favourite and he’s getting to around the price I would be interested in (2/1) but I never considered him a bet at the 5/4 level.
He is totally unproven on the distance front. A mile is the furthest he has gone and whilst on the Guineas evidence this 1m 4f trip should be right up his street, how many guesses do you want to be making on a 2/1 shot in a Classic ??
O’Brien also has two other live contenders in Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra – both of whom won’t mind any more rain. If you believe the hype, then Geoffrey Chaucer is the one that has sparkled most at home but I was also taken with Orchestra after his win at Chester and it would come as no surprise to see him run well.
Disappointing to see O’Brien with only three runners this year having had five last year (I AM JOKING!) which included the winner Ruler Of The World ridden by Ryan Moore who is onboard Geoffrey Chaucer today.
It’s the O’Brien second and third string that appeal most and I am backing both of them to deliver a fifth Derby win for O’Brien.
RECOMMENDED BET (scale of 1-10 points)
5 points win GEOFFREY CHAUCER at around 8/1 Star Sports
5 points win ORCHESTRA at around 12/1 Star Sports