I just don’t rate the ratings

The figure boys, rating merchants and times students will all look at the first two classics and fit the results into their theories. They have decided that Dawn Approach (pictured above) is one of the best recent winners of the 2000 Guineas , so they will have to enhance the performance of the rest. Tragic really and for me the downfall of ratings writes Trevor Harris.

I happen to agree with them concerning Dawn Approach but cannot have the inevitable up ranking of Saturday’s defeated rivals. The runner up is not a 115 horse even if you choose to give the winner 126.This is a failure to understand the qualities and to some extent the limitations of the winner.

For me Dawn Approach is a street fighter , a horse who is as hard as nails, finds loads for asking and keeps fighting when challenged. He is unlikely to make you purr with his brilliance and stun you with his speed, but as a total package he is mighty impressive. I honestly believe that if he ran in a 0-100 handicap he would win the same. He wouldn’t cruise up hacking all over his rivals, that just isn’t his style. You have to put the gun to his head to see his true talents. So do you give every 95 horse a 20 lb increase every time he beats them up, no you just try to understand the winner better and concede the numbers don’t always work. Dawn Approach will beat the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Cirrus Des Aigles the same as he beats inferior rivals. He just gets the job done.

Toronado looks the complete opposite of Dawn Approach in that he does everything easily and must work ever so well at home. If I am guilty of being obsessed with any aspect of Horse racing then how horses react to coming off the bridle is it. For me it is the one aspect of the game when we are on a level playing field and even have the advantage of not having any personnel attachment to an animal. We don’t know the good ones from the bad ones and have not seen what goes on at home but we do know that very few horses will be worked so hard at home that they come under pressure. So when the jockey puts the gun to the head we find out what they have got at the same time as connections. Those close to the horse will tend to be forgiving and we can identify a bridle horse quicker than they do.

Toronado is just like how a very good horse is meant to be and Dawn Approach is not. All the recent best horses would be tricky to settle as they find things all too easy and want to go faster. This was certainly true of both Frankel and Sea The Stars and tends to be what we look for when seeking latent talent.The difference between very good and exceptional is decided by what horses find when asked and when they are out of their comfort zone.

I suspect Toronado is very good, as connections insist, but might not reach exceptional because of limitations when off the bridle.

Dawn Approach might be another superstar and clearly there are no fears about what he finds when asked, in fact he looks likely to improve when coming under pressure and the more you ask the more he wants it. These are rare and admirable qualities and he is fast becoming one of my all time favourites.

After laying Hot Snap (pictured, right) for the 1000 Guineas and backing Moth ew , I obviously enjoyed Sunday’s race. The confidence behind Hot Snap was amazing to my eyes as she was massively flattered in the Nell Gwyn , when the cross winds were described as some of the worst ever seen. She got the most cover from those winds and got a dream run up the rail just when her jockey wanted to make his move. She was getting 3lb from Sky Lantern and I got the impression that Sky Lantern was under cooked for the trial and Hot Snap looked ready to run.

Moth looked the Ballydoyle number one and in a race lacking any clear form pick, backing that stable’s main hope at double figures is a sound policy. She performed pretty well and is sure to improve for a step up in trip but at 3/1 7/2 is very short for the Oaks. Yes she is lightly raced and improving fast with a pedigree that screams 10 furlongs + but physically she doesn’t impress and may not have the scope to keep on improving.

As for this week, don’t be surprised if Ballydoyle’s Justification goes very close in the Chester Cup, kept in training as a 5yr old, his mark of 91 might be very lenient. A low draw and the presence of Ryan Moore adds further confidence and at around 6/1 there will be worst bets.