National reflections and big race thoughts

I spent about three hours on the Grand National runners and failed to make a compelling case for any of the runners in relation to their price and the winner Aurora’s Encore struck me as a safe conveyance, likely to complete, but very unlikely to get seriously involved. I suppose I should have predicted an upset, as I couldn’t really fancy any of the leading fancies but I couldn’t see this winner however long I spent on the race.

This was very much an old-fashioned Grand National where you can give nearly all the field some sort of chance and although the weights are artificially compressed, those at the top were unable to take advantage. I believe this will probably be a one off and hopefully we will be able to narrow next year’s renewal done to 10 or so with a major chance as this year for me no horse fell in that category. The flat is beginning to get going and I have paid most attention to the early meetings in Ireland as the Ballydoyle juggernaut begins to flex its muscles.

In recent seasons, whether by design or not, Aidan O’Brien’s runners have been badly in need of their seasonal reappearances. I am already hearing  commentators saying how they will come on for the run and are likely to need this etc., and there is a tendency to accept this without question. The vast majority of all horses will improve for their first run and the vast majority of trainers would want it this way but at this early stage of the season some yards are further forward than others. Contrary to what I have been reading and hearing the O’Brien team look nicely forward this year and you can expect decent and successful reappearances. They are all looking and running very well and as the common view is that they will need their runs, we can oppose this and back some overpriced horses. I would however remind you that the market is always the best way to assess the Ballydoyle runners , as they rarely get it wrong. Looking ahead I would expect Aidan O’Brien’s runners to be very competitive at Newmarket next week, but with running plans yet to be finalised, it’s too early to give any recommendations.

It is still a tad early to be confident about the Scottish National but I am drawn towards the Irish challenger White Star Line. This horse represents Dessie Hughes and is a smooth travelling, sound jumping type who is unexposed as a stayer. He has a poor win to run ratio and manages to travel best and find little on a number of occasions but this run style could be ideal for Ayr. He looked a very likely winner in-running at the Festival but came third and you would have to play ew, but Cheltenham showed he is well handicapped and he is very likely to find a nice rhythm at Ayr whatever pace they go. White Star Line is currently 20/1 for the Scottish National and is a likely rather than a certain runner but he should be backed ew with a degree of confidence.