POV: Can Big Ange Save Labour? (Brad, The Politics Betting Club)

In our latest POV column, Politics Betting Club founder and political punter Brad on who might replace Keir Starmer if he’s ousted before the next election. 

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We currently have a Prime Minister whose personal ratings are the worst of any PM from the past four decades after 300 days in office… even outdoing Gordon Brown’s grim numbers. The latest YouGov ratings showed his favorability among Britons is at just 23%. 50% more people disapprove of the government’s record than approve of it, Starmer has a net approval rating of -44 while 44% of Labour voters in 2024 have an unfavorable opinion. If you compare that to Rayner, it’s not looking good either but she actually comes out best compared to the rest of her colleagues in cabinet; only Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham beat her.

It’s only a matter of time before Labour MPs move to oust Starmer or he resigns. 2026 will be a key year with local, Senedd and Holyrood elections due to take place. We have seen his odds shorten significantly over the last few months in all markets. Mainly the 2026 exit date (11/4) and him not being PM at the next general election. Believe it or not, we have a prime minister who won a thumping majority, has only been in office a year and is as short as (8/11) to not be PM at the next general election.

Now with Nigel Farage taking up a lot of the % in the Next PM market (currently 5/2 fav), there is an opportunity here by playing this market as the actual next Labour leader market where Rayner is currently (4/1). Don’t forget, Farage can only become PM after a general election! Many punters who have taken odds on Farage will be hoping Starmer stays.

If a Labour leadership election were called tomorrow, the two most likely contenders are Wes Streeting (right of the party) and Angela Rayner (left of the party). Both are already on manoeuvres and are in prime positions with their current roles in the cabinet. Reeves is now completely out of the picture and Cooper is having a hard time at the Home Office, both two potential outsiders. It’s also quite significant that both Rayner and Streeting are at serious risk of losing their seats if a general election were called today, I would probably have them both odds on to lose. This may be their only and last chance of becoming Prime Minister, and it’s the ultimate golden ticket route (without going to the electorate). They both know this of course, so there may be some sense of urgency.

Labourlist’s latest cabinet rankings see Rayner way ahead of Streeting; she continuously tops all of the members’ polls for next Labour leader, second to only Burnham who is not an MP. There is no doubt about it that she’s the current member’s choice. We had a huge spanner thrown into the works last week when Corbyn/Sultana launched a new party, they are clearly out to do damage. The Labour Party is very vulnerable to an alternative on the left, and now the voters have an option. But this is music to the ears of Rayner backers, after all, she is on the left of the party, I think this benefits her more than hinders her chances of becoming the next leader.

Maybe she could be the one who brings the left together? They certainly need to if they want to beat Reform.

Star Sports are currently (7/1) best price for Angela Rayner to be Next Prime Minister. You won’t get bigger anywhere else, and I still think there is some value left in her price. Wes Streeting is (15/2) and if you back them both against the field, the price is just over (3/1).

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Views of authors do not necessarily represent views of Star Sports Bookmakers.

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