PRESS RELEASE: Starmer given less than 50% chance of surviving beyond May elections

Keir Starmer is given less than a 50% chance of remaining as Prime Minister following May’s local elections with Star Sports after seeing his Labour party humbled in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

Starmer is 10/11 to stand down before July 1st and 2/7 to be replaced as leader this year.

The victorious Green Party, meanwhile, have climbed above the Conservatives in the Next General Election market, now 11/2 to claim most seats (from 10/1).

After losing their position at the front of the market earlier this week, Reform have returned to favouritism (15/8), with Labour drifting back to second (21/10 from 13/8).

There is now a 60% probability (4/6) that there will be no overall majority following the next General Election.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski has seen his chances of becoming the next Prime Minister double – he’s now 25/1 to replace Starmer in Downing Street (from 50/1), the same price as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

William Kedjanyi, Political Betting Analyst at Star Sports, said: “Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer’s convincing by-election win in Gorton and Denton marks a breakthrough moment for her party, and a major blow to Keir Starmer’s government.

“We make it a toss-up now whether Starmer stays in Downing Street beyond the May election – 10/11 to last beyond July 1st and the same price to leave. And Labour have once again fallen behind Reform in the market to win most seats at the next General Election (21/10 from 13/8).

“For the Greens, they’ve leapt ahead of the Tories into third-favourites to win most seats, with party leader Zack Polanski’s chances of becoming the next Prime Minister boosted significantly (25/1 from 50/1).”

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Star Sports – British Politics – Next UK General Election

Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister on 1st July 2026?

Yes – ?
No – ?

Year Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Party leader:

2026 – ?
2027 – ?
2028 – ?
2029 or later – ?

Next UK General Election – Most Seats:

➡️ Reform UK: ?
🌹 Labour: ?
🟢 Green Party: ?
🔵 Conservatives: ?
🔵 Restore Britain: ?
🔶 Liberal Democrats: ?
🔴 Your Party: ?

⭐️ NEXT GENERAL ELECTION MARKET ⭐️ 

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Next Permanent Prime Minister After Keir Starmer:

🌹 Angela Rayner: ?
🌹 Wes Streeting: ?
➡️ Nigel Farage: ?
🌹 Ed Miliband: ?
🌹 Shabana Mahmood: ?
🌹 Yvette Cooper: ?
🌹 John Healey: ?
🌹 Andy Burnham: ?
🌹 Alistair Carns: ?
🔵 Rupert Lowe: ?
🔵 Kemi Badenoch: ?

⭐️ NEXT PRIME MINISTER MARKET ⭐️ 

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STAR PROMOTIONS