Quotes on Ashes Test draws truly baffling
Whatever you think, however bullish you are, the prices on the machine are generally a pretty accurate guide to your selections chances and if you think something is too big, it’s a good policy to reassess how you got to your judgement.
Indeed such is the reliability of the exchanges that the odds compiler role is bordering on obsolete. The odds compilers that do remain must pay heavy attention to the exchange and tweak the odds a bit. Firms will rarely go above the machine and when they do are often forced to shorten. So why are the prices on the cricket, in my eyes, so wrong. I’ve tried to rethink this believing that I must be mistaken but I can’t change my views. The draw is always, always way too short.
The 2nd Ashes test has just finished and the draw a 5/2 chance before the start never looked like happening and throughout the match the draw price traded way under what I thought it should be. From the moment Australia were struggling batting in their first innings on just day 2 the draw was never an option yet when with Australia 5 down on Friday afternoon you could still lay about 3/1, yes 3/1 with over three days to go, truly baffling.
So why should this keep happening.
I think it’s far to assume that the majority of Cricket trading is done by internet bots and whoever designed these or inputted the data needs a serious rethink. The first thing to remember is that it’s not football and if two sides are evenly matched the draw is not more likely to happen. If the two sides are both strong in the batting department and lack quality bowlers then fair enough.
I am sure everyone is aware of the impact that one day cricket and 20/20 in particular is having on batsmen around the world. Whether it be technique or mental attitude, batsmen simply aren’t able to sell their wickets dear. But this is hardly a new thing and I am sure those clever programmers have factored all this into their data. Furthermore the near certainty of no weather delays must have been inputted into the programmes. So how on earth was the draw a 5/2 or even 3/1 chance it had to be the outsider of 3 and I wouldn’t have taken 6.
One factor those clever computer programmes don’t seem to have factored in is the cauldron like atmosphere these Ashes Tests produce. Batsman and Aussie ones in particular are facing a pressure situation with sold out grounds and an excitable crowd that they have rarely or never experienced before. The atmospheres in this current series have reached a new level and the tendency to lose your head is very common. Even the English batsmen are getting carried away trying to smash the ball to the ropes to entertain the crowd.
So the computer boys need to create an atmosphere factor into the data which is seriously reducing time spent at the crease.
The other thing to remember is that the exchange boys aren’t backing or laying the draw but trading the price. The draw is the outcome that is traded session by session ball by ball and a quiet 20 mins can see a nice profit traded. These transactions for me tend to shorten the draw and create a false price, after all these trades are based on whether the draw is more or less likely after a ball an over a session or a day. The fact that the draw ultimately is very unlikely is irrelevant.
So there you, prepare yourself for 3 draws in the last 3 tests. No, seriously, the draw is always a runner in every test but for me is miles shorter than it should be and playing one or even both of the other two outcomes has been and remains a very successful betting strategy.