SIMON NOTT: Bocks can’t beat the odds

In the course of my #BettingPeople interviews I always enjoy hearing from people who make money punting talking about odds and probability. The consensus being that if you can consistently beat Betfair SP, in whatever market you bet in, you’ll come out on top – eventually.

I think that’s codswallop.

There are some amazing punters out there, you wouldn’t want to emulate them though. Yes, they beat the odds but don’t profit from their skill. Why? They are the Bock, the polar opposite from the professional, if a horse has a one in three chance of winning, he’ll find the time it won’t to back it, at those odds it’s easy, the bock get odds-on chances beaten just by backing them, it’s a gift that nobody wants.

For these poor beleaguered individuals, it’s not like the old getting 11/10 heads when flipping a coin adage and you’ll be sure to win, the Bock has to pick the horse. Many moons ago I helped a bookie mate out taking telephone bets. He had a punter that was so bad at betting that I was told to give him half a point over the show or Oddschecker every time he came on for a bet, that’s how desperate my mate was to keep him.

He still did his cobblers week in, week out despite getting the best value in racing.

I’d like to know the maths behind that.

Simon Nott


Views of authors do not necessarily represent views of Star Sports Bookmakers.


skintmobSimon Nott is author of:
Skint Mob! Tales from the Betting Ring

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