STAR CRICKET PREVIEW: The Ashes 2023 | Fourth Test

The cricketing world is enjoying one of the great Ashes series and England can keep their hopes alive with victory in the fourth test at Old Trafford.

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England v Australia 
4th Men’s Test, Ashes Series
Old Trafford, Manchester
Wednesday 19th July – Sunday 23rd July
Live on Sky Sports Cricket HD from 10.15am Wednesday

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Brendon McCullum’s men were under fire after defeats at Edgbaston and Lord’s but it was third time lucky at Headingley with a well-deserved success.

Key to that turnaround was the return of Mark Wood to the England attack, with his scorching pace – his first spell didn’t see a single delivery dip below 90 mph, with a top speed of 96mph – leading to a match tally of 7/100 with the ball whilst the 40 runs he contributed with the bat also proved to be crucial.

Arguably just as important was the performance of Chris Woakes, whose 42 runs with the bat alongside bowling efforts of 3/73 & 3/68 tipped the balance in England’s favour, especially as he and Stuart Broad took advantage of the best bowling conditions of the series so far.

Those additions have given Ben Stokes – England’s leading run scorer whilst being unable to bowl due to knee issues – crucial balance and a point of difference between two evenly balanced attacks; after 943.4 overs, Australia are 1,850 for 58 and England 1,809 for 55.

This played a key factor in the second innings, with Scott Boland proving ineffective in good conditions for batting whilst Pat Cummins – superb in the first innings with 6/90 – was clearly feeling the effects of a long campaign which has seen him bowl more overs than anyone but Stuart Broad.

A nine-day break between Headingley and this upcoming test should help refresh the Aussie bowling attack – although it does mean that England can count upon Wood, Woakes and Broad to hit their peaks again – and the likely return of Josh Hazlewood will provide a boost for the visitors.

However, the loss of Nathan Lyon – who had played 100 consecutive test matches before injuring his calf at Lord’s – could prove to be a game changing blow for Australia. Lyon’s own skill and Ashes record is obvious, and whilst his replacement Todd Murphy is a player of great promise, he had little impact and was trusted with just 9.3 overs across both innings compared to 26 for Moeen Ali.

Murphy should get more spin at Old Trafford but he’s understandably a more vulnerable target for England’s right-handed batters, who could make hay against him – remember that Nathan Lyon went for 149-4 and 80-4 at Edgbaston – putting more pressure on Cummins and Starc to take the bulk of wickets against an England side that has batters in some form down to 7 now Woakes is present.

Speaking of batters, Steve Smith (16, 6, 110, 34, 22 and 2) and especially Marnus Labuschagne (0, 13, 47, 30, 21, & 33) have struggled to make their mark on the series, with Labuschagne struggling against the late movement of Stuart Broad in particular whilst Steve Smith, bar his brilliant Lord’s hundred, has not exerted the same control that he did on previous Ashes series.

With David Warner unable to play Stuart Broad – he has been dismissed by Broad 17 times in test cricket – there’s a huge amount of pressure on Usman Khawaja (enjoying a fine series although he’s scored just 13 and 17 in the opening innings since Edgbaston), to lay a solid batting foundation.

Australia’s middle order of Travis Head, Mitch Marsh/Cam Green, and Alex Carey will play a crucial part but Alex Carey’s been a weakness with the bat since the first test and with Wood and Woakes present, he could be more exposed by his top order.

Some may want to leave the match odds market after seeing the weather forecast, which has a threat of rain on all five days, but each of the three tests has been disrupted by weather at some point only for a result to be forced, a continuing trend with England’s aggressive style of play.

The threat of rain should mean plenty of cloud, something which ought to be a benefit to England’s attack – who relished cloudy overhead conditions and a more helpful pitch at Headingley – and they can set up a decider at The Oval with victory here.

Batting 

Openers in this series – David Warner apart, and even he managed 66 and 25 at Lord’s – have had a pretty solid time of things, but 8 of the 12 innings have come from 3 and below and if conditions are cloudy it could pay to look lower down the order here. Ben Stokes (more on him later) averages 52.80 in Test matches at Old Trafford, plays fast bowling on quick pitches well, and will be protected from the new dukes ball so 5/1 about him being the top first innings run scorer makes appeal.

For Australia Mitchell Marsh was outstanding at Headingley with 116 in the first innings whilst 28 in the second wasn’t a bad effort considering the conditions, and he’s worth a go at 6/1.

Bowling

Mark Wood was sensational at Headingley and he should be the biggest beneficiary of the nine day gap between tests. We know all about his phenomenal pace against top order batters, but Wood is also able to find movement with the new Dukes ball and with cloudy conditions set for each day he should find himself able to target Australia’s top order even with Anderson back in the fold. Another benefit that Wood has is the Australian tail – he took the wickets of Starc, Cummins and Murphy in the first innings – and the boosted 11/4 with starsports.bet that he’s the top first innings wicket taker makes appeal.

Man Of The Match

The Alex Carey incident has unleashed the beast in Ben Stokes, and 9/2 about him hitting the Most Match Sixes is bigger than the 4/1 at Headingley, where he took such honours. Stokes will have Todd Murphy in his sights again, should have benefited a lot from the gap between tests, and plays short bowling better than most batters in general. Take a boosted 12/1 that he’s man of the match as well.

The Teams

England:

England have confirmed their XI, with one change – Anderson for Robinson. Moeen Ali remains at No3.

Crawley, Duckett, Moeen, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Wood, Broad, Anderson

Australia:

After his much-needed break, Pat Cummins has a decision to make. Mitch Marsh’s 116 in the first innings – during the most difficult batting innings – along with 1/9 and 1/23 – surely sealed his place for the rest of the series. But who makes way? Cameron Green was poor with the bat at Lord’s, but has been exceptional in the field, and his height gives him extra options when bowling. How to have the pair on the same side, though?

Will Warner be dropped, and one batter moved up the order? It remains to be seen.

The extended gap between tests has come at just the right time for the Aussie bowling attack – Pat Cummins especially – and with Scott Boland struggling this series, it would be no surprise if he was swapped for Josh Hazlewood at Old Trafford. Todd Murphy will be the specialist spin bowler.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

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PROFIT/LOSS (JULY 2023): LOSS -30.28 points

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