STAR F1 PREVIEW: 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix

Kimi Antonelli stands on the brink of Formula 1 history as the championship heads to Mexico City, where the Mercedes driver needs just two more points to become the youngest World Champion the sport has ever seen.

The Italian’s commanding victory in Austin has left George Russell and Lewis Hamilton requiring a remarkable sequence of results to keep their championship hopes alive, but the battle for victory remains fascinating after Max Verstappen’s recent resurgence and Ferrari’s strong showing in Texas, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

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🇲🇽 2026 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix
Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Mexico City
All coverage live on Sky Sports F1, Sky Go & NOW – UK times (GMT)

1️⃣ Practice One: 6.30pm Friday
2️⃣ Practice Two: 10pm Friday
3️⃣ Practice Three: 5.30pm Saturday
⏰ Qualifying: 9pm Saturday
🏆 Race: 8pm Sunday

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The Story from Austin

Kimi Antonelli produced one of the most accomplished performances of his young Formula 1 career to claim a commanding victory at the United States Grand Prix, taking his ninth win of the season and moving to within touching distance of the World Championship.

Starting from pole position, the Mercedes driver controlled proceedings at the Circuit of the Americas and executed a successful one-stop strategy to finish 13.078 seconds ahead of Charles Leclerc, with Max Verstappen completing the podium a further 4.407 seconds behind.

Ferrari continued their encouraging recent form, with Leclerc finishing second and Lewis Hamilton fourth, while Lando Norris took fifth for McLaren ahead of Isack Hadjar and Oscar Piastri.

George Russell endured a frustrating afternoon, finishing eighth after struggling for pace and receiving a five-second penalty, allowing Antonelli to extend his championship advantage over his team-mate to 123 points.

Liam Lawson took ninth for Racing Bulls, with Pierre Gasly claiming the final point for Alpine.

Antonelli’s victory was not quite enough to secure the championship, with Russell and Hamilton both scoring sufficient points to keep their mathematical hopes alive. However, the Italian now heads to Mexico needing only ninth place to become Formula 1’s youngest-ever World Champion.

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Race Winners/Pole Sitters 🏆

🇦🇺 Australia – George Russell / George Russell
🇨🇳 China – Kimi Antonelli / Kimi Antonelli
🇯🇵 Japan – Kimi Antonelli / Kimi Antonelli
🇺🇸 Miami – Kimi Antonelli / Kimi Antonelli
🇨🇦 Canada – Kimi Antonelli / George Russell
🇲🇨 Monaco – Kimi Antonelli / Kimi Antonelli
🇪🇸 Barcelona-Catalunya – Lewis Hamilton / George Russell
🇦🇹 Austria – George Russell / George Russell
🇬🇧 Great Britain – Charles Leclerc / Kimi Antonelli
🇧🇪 Belgium – Kimi Antonelli / Kimi Antonelli
🇭🇺 Hungary – Lando Norris / Lando Norris
🇳🇱 Netherlands – Lando Norris / Lando Norris
🇮🇹 Italy – Kimi Antonelli / Pierre Gasly
🇪🇸 Spain – Kimi Antonelli / Lando Norris
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan – George Russell / George Russell
🇲🇾 Bahrain in Malaysia – Max Verstappen / Max Verstappen
🇸🇬 Singapore – Max Verstappen / Max Verstappen
🇺🇸 United States – Kimi Antonelli / Kimi Antonelli

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Standings 📊

Driver / Car / Points (Wins, Podiums):

1. 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli / Mercedes / 365 pts (9 wins, 15 podiums)
2. 🇬🇧 George Russell / Mercedes / 242 pts (3 wins, 8 podiums)
3. 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton / Ferrari / 241 pts (1 win, 6 podiums)
4. 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen / Red Bull / 236 pts (2 wins, 10 podiums)
5. 🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc / Ferrari / 233 pts (1 win, 6 podiums)
6. 🇬🇧 Lando Norris / McLaren / 211 pts (2 wins, 5 podiums)
7. 🇦🇺 Oscar Piastri / McLaren / 144 pts (0 wins, 2 podiums)
8. 🇫🇷 Isack Hadjar / Red Bull / 105 pts (0 wins, 2 podiums)
9. 🇳🇿 Liam Lawson / Racing Bulls / 77 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
10. 🇫🇷 Pierre Gasly / Alpine / 42 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)

Title Permutations 🏆

Kimi Antonelli is now just two points away from securing the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship, having extended his advantage over George Russell to 123 points following victory in Austin. Lewis Hamilton remains mathematically in contention, 124 points behind, but with only five Grands Prix and 125 points remaining, Antonelli’s task is straightforward.

A ninth-place finish or better in Mexico City will guarantee Antonelli the title, regardless of where Russell and Hamilton finish. If the Italian fails to score, he will still become champion provided neither Russell nor Hamilton wins the race. A tenth-place finish would also be sufficient unless Russell wins.

Should Antonelli secure the championship, he would become the youngest World Champion in Formula 1 history at 20 years old, surpassing Sebastian Vettel’s record, and the first Italian to claim the title since Alberto Ascari in 1953.

🏎️ Constructors (Wins, Podiums):

1. ⚪ Mercedes – 607 pts (12 wins, 23 podiums)
2. 🔴 Ferrari – 474 pts (2 wins, 12 podiums)
3. 🔵 Red Bull Racing – 355 pts (2 wins, 12 podiums)
4. 🟠 McLaren – 355 pts (2 wins, 7 podiums)
5. ⚫ Racing Bulls – 102 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
6. 🔷 Alpine – 69 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
7. ⚪ Haas – 30 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
8. 🟢 Audi – 23 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
9. 🔵 Williams – 12 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
10. 🟢 Aston Martin – 7 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)
11. ⚪ Cadillac – 0 pts (0 wins, 0 podiums)

Standings correct after the United States Grand Prix.

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Track Guide 🚦

Circuit: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez
Location: Mexico City
Length: 4.304km
Laps: 71
Race distance: 305.354km
Corners: 17
First Grand Prix: 1963
Lap record: 1:17.774 – Valtteri Bottas (2021)

The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is one of Formula 1’s most unusual circuits, situated approximately 2,240 metres above sea level. The thin air creates a distinctive aerodynamic challenge, reducing drag but also limiting the amount of downforce generated by the cars.

Despite teams typically running high-downforce configurations, straight-line speeds can be extremely high, particularly along the enormous 1.2km pit straight leading into Turn 1.

The opening sequence provides one of the circuit’s principal overtaking opportunities, with drivers braking heavily from high speed into a tight right-left-right combination. Another substantial straight leads into Turn 4, creating further opportunities for passing.

The middle sector features a series of flowing corners requiring good balance and front-end grip, before the lap concludes with the famous Foro Sol stadium section, where drivers navigate a series of slow corners surrounded by packed grandstands.

What can the 2026 cars and drivers expect?

Mexico City presents a particularly interesting test for the new-generation Formula 1 cars, with the altitude affecting aerodynamics, cooling and power-unit performance.

The reduced air density means cars generate less downforce than they would at sea level, making the slower corners especially demanding. Drivers may struggle for grip through the technical middle sector and stadium complex, particularly if their cars lack mechanical traction.

Cooling is another major concern. Less dense air makes it harder to dissipate heat from the power unit, battery, brakes and other components, potentially forcing teams to open up their cooling configurations at the expense of aerodynamic efficiency.

Energy deployment will also be important. The combination of long straights and relatively slow corners means drivers must manage their electrical energy carefully, ensuring they have sufficient power available when accelerating onto the circuit’s longest sections.

The altitude may also influence the competitive order. Cars with efficient cooling systems, strong mechanical grip and effective energy management could enjoy an advantage, while those that rely heavily on aerodynamic performance may find the circuit more difficult.

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Tactics 🧠

Pirelli have selected the C3 Hard, C4 Medium and C5 Soft compounds for Mexico City, the softest available combination in the 2026 range.

The relatively low aerodynamic loads generated at altitude can help limit tyre wear, making a one-stop strategy attractive, although thermal management remains an important consideration.

The softest compound selection could introduce additional strategic variety, particularly if teams struggle to control tyre temperatures during longer stints.

Track position is important, but overtaking opportunities into Turns 1 and 4 give drivers a realistic chance of recovering positions, particularly when their tyres are in better condition.

The long run from the starting grid to Turn 1 also makes the opening lap especially significant. Drivers starting behind the front row can benefit from the slipstream, while those on pole must carefully manage their positioning on the approach to the first braking zone.

Safety Cars and Virtual Safety Cars can create strategic opportunities, although the relatively short lap means pit-stop timing and traffic management require careful consideration.

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Weather 🌤️

Friday, October 30 – FP1 and FP2:

A warm afternoon is expected in Mexico City, with temperatures reaching approximately 25-26°C. There is a chance of some light rain or showers, although conditions should be predominantly dry. The combination of warm temperatures and the circuit’s altitude could place additional demands on cooling systems during the opening practice sessions.

Maximum temperature: 26°C
Minimum temperature: 12°C
Chance of rain: Around 30-40%

Saturday, October 31 – FP3 and Qualifying:

Mostly sunny conditions are forecast, with temperatures reaching approximately 25-26°C and a relatively low chance of rain. The dry conditions should allow teams to concentrate on qualifying performance, although changing track temperatures could influence tyre preparation.

Maximum temperature: 26°C
Minimum temperature: 12°C
Chance of rain: Around 5%

Sunday, November 1 – Race:

Race day is expected to be warm and largely dry, with temperatures around 25°C and sunny conditions forecast. Rain currently appears unlikely, making a dry 71-lap Grand Prix the most probable scenario.

Maximum temperature: 25°C
Minimum temperature: 13°C
Chance of rain: Around 5%

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FIRST VERDICT 🏁

The unique demands of the altitude here look sure to play a factor, with Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen clear at the head of the betting with starsports.bet entirely fair given their performances and also the circuit here. Antonelli, who will become a deserved and youngest ever champion this weekend barring accident, was faultless in Austin after taking an early lead and dominated what looked a competitive race on paper, winning with a huge amount in hand.

It should be noted that almost everything that could go wrong for Verstappen (and Isack Hadjar) did during the race, with slow starts that were not driver error, radio problems, incorrect strategy in the view of Max Verstappen (although he didn’t have Antonelli’s overall pace), and a poor pit stop to boot whilst Hadjar was stuck in the wrong throttle map. Hadjar will have to deal with the launch failures that the RB22 has suffered, but considering he was a clear sixth in Austin, looks fairly priced to take another top six finish here given his form and the obvious potential for improvement Red Bull have in other areas with a cleaner weekend. The 3/4 on a Double Red Bull Top 6 finish is also appealing given the pecking order for the second half of the season.

Ferrari had – not for the first time – excellent race pace, although their small qualifying window proved to be an anchor once again and a straight-line speed deficit did also hurt them at Austin. They’ve gone well here in the past, although their topspeed deficit for the long home straight is likely to be more of an issue here than in Austin and Lewis Hamilton will also need to find the right setup window much more quickly than he did in Austin. Both are serious contenders for the podium though.

McLaren have struggled to put the MCL40 in the right window for much of this year and recent upgrades haven’t helped with difficult that the car has given both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

Altitude here should punish the drag that they have less and Norris in particular flew during his hard tyre stint in Austin but their fundamental pace deficit since Madrid, when Norris was cost victory by cruelly timed Virtual Safety Car, is unlikely to be changed unless new upgrades coming over the next two race weekenders are gamechangers, and even then the diving difficulty of the McLaren puts both at a fundamental disadvantage, with a top six finish the likely limit on paper for Norris as Piastri has struggled these new regulations and the shortcomings of the McLaren. George Russell has been at a loss to explain his pace deficit to Antonelli and will be thankful for the end of this season.

The pre-race odds might factor Kimi Antonelli’s champion-elect status into account – and a cleaner weekend for Verstappen, who has been imperious when romping home in Sepang and Singapore the past two weeks – but a key part of this race will be the long run down to Turn 1, a worry for the Red Bulls, with Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar having repeatedly lost positions off the line due to a fragile clutch system that struggles with high temperatures. With a full fix not coming until next year, both will be vulnerable off the line once again to Antonelli and the Ferrari pairing at least, tipping the balance in favour of the champion elect.

It may be that the upgraded W17 is a difficult car to extract performance from – and not losing out too much compared the Ferraris in the low-speed sections – but the overall package performance is still best and it would be no surprise if Antonelli sealed his crown in style.

The midfield battle recently has been won by Liam Lawson, who drove another superb race in Austin for his third straight points finish. His worth has been understood by the markets now – he’s just 1/2 for a points finish with starsports.bet, and even that looks fair given how well he’s driving and how impressive the VCARB03 has been.

Audi, which may benefit from having the largest turbo on the grid here, could well mix things up with the Alpine of Pierre Gasly especially, with both Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto showing good pace in Austin. Gasly’s tenth place there deserved an upgraded, though – he carried floor damage on the right side after the Ollie Bearman collision but despite that, held on to a points finish. The betting is currently tight for a points finish between Gasly and Arvid Lindblad, but at 11/5 and 12/5 respectively Bortoleto and Hulkenberg could give backers a decent run for their money.

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RECOMMENDED BETS

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PROFIT/LOSS (2026): -39.23 points

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