STAR NFL PREVIEW Sat: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

A game that up until last week looked as though it would be a showdown for the NFC East title but the Cowboys loss to the rising Jaguars threw all of that into doubt and now the Eagles need just one win to seal the deal for the division and take a step closer to the No1 seed in the NFC itself.

Of course, this being the NFL things are never that straightforward and the Eagles plans this week have been thrown into disarray with the loss of their QB and possible MVP Jalen Hurts to a sprained shoulder. Hurts has thrown for 3,472 yards and 22 passing touchdowns. He’s also complimented that production with 747 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground to make him one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL. That makes the Eagles a very different team with his backup Gardner Minshew in the game although it has to be said that Minshew is one of the better backups in the NFL.

Minshew is by no means the dynamic force that Hurts is, but he’s been productive when given the chance to start appearing in 30 games mostly during his first two seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Minshew has thrown 41 touchdown passes against only 12 interceptions. He’s started 22 games and in each of those starts has averaged 243.6 passing yards and his “supporting cast” here hardly lacks talent either through the air or on the ground. Another plus point is that the Eagles coaching staff has consistently demonstrated an ability to evolve and adapt their scheme in-season and in-game and the Cowboys defence is softer than when the sides first met with injuries in the secondary and influential linebacker Leighton Vander Esch also missing.

The Dallas defence has showed signs of vulnerability in its last two games as Jaguars and Texans QBs combined to go 47-of-69 passing (68%) for 521 yards (7.6 YPA) and a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio with 59 combined rushing yards and just one sack taken versus the Cowboys.

I mentioned Minshew’s supporting cast earlier and he’s hardly short of skill players around him with A.J. Brown entering this week in fine form having recorded four TDs and two 100-yard receiving performances over his last four appearances. It won’t be a surprise if Brown gets on the scoresheet once again and with Devonta Smith as the No2 wide receiver and Dallas Goedert returning from injury at tight end Minshew has plenty of targets to throw to. Goedert played one game with Minshew last season, going 6/105/2 on six targets in Week 13.

On the ground the main threat for the Eagles Miles Sanders enters off the back of a quiet week but with Hurts missing and not providing a rushing threat I can see Sanders getting more work. Sanders went 18/71/1 rushing versus Dallas in Week 6 and the Cowboys are allowing 4.4 yards per carry and the NFL’s ninth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. Over the last three weeks the Dallas run defence has allowed 103 rushing yards to Travis Etienne Jr., 78 rushing yards to Dameon Pierce and 82 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor.

With the confirmation that Hurts wouldn’t be playing so the handicap has grown and in some ways there is a symmetry in this game as the Cowboys were missing their starting QB Dak Prescott when these two sides first met this year. On that occasion Cooper Rush was starting at QB and now the Eagles face Prescott coming off his sixth multi-touchdown game in his last seven outings although he hasn’t reached 300 yards passing in a game all season.

Here Prescott and the Cowboys offence come up against one of the best defences in the NFL. The Eagles are allowing just 19.1 points per game and giving up a league-low 5.3 yards per passing attempt plus they are No1 in pass defence (172.4 yards per game), interceptions (15) and sacks (55). The Eagles defence has recorded six-plus sacks in three consecutive games, which is tied for the second-longest streak since the NFL first began tracking team sacks in 1963. So, Prescott is almost certainly going to be facing pressure.

CeeDee Lamb is likely to be the main target for Prescott as he enters this game off the back of a 126-yard day out against the Jaguars, but he and the rest of the Cowboys receiving corps may find it tough going against the Eagles secondary led by the top class shutdown corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

The game script could favour the Cowboys relying on their ground game which is a reliable one with Tony Pollard providing an explosive punch and Zeke Elliott capable of grinding out the hard yards. Pollard out-touched (23 to 18), outgained (106 yards to 71), and out-targeted (5 to 2) Ezekiel Elliott last Sunday, but it was Zeke who hit paydirt for the seventh straight week and I would expect an analogous situation to ensue this time around.

This is one of the few games on Xmas Eve where the weather definitely won’t be a factor in the indoor environs of Jerry Jones World and whilst Hurts is a loss for the Eagles the downgrade to Minshew isn’t the handicap that many expect with the skill players that he has around him and the Philadelphia defence should enable them to keep this close. Each of the past four meetings between the Cowboys and Eagles went over the total and that could well be the case again here in what should be an entertaining contest in conditions that can be relied upon.

ANDY RICHMOND

ANDY RICHMOND is a lifelong punter and sports enthusiast who now writes extensively on horse racing and the NFL. His CV includes long spells on Timeform Radio and Racing UK having previously held several positions at the then-fledgling Betfair Exchange where he worked for six years. He has a particular love for the statistical and analytical side of sports which fits in well with the NFL. He writes all the NFL content on Paul Jones subscription service as well as having his own betting advisory service.

RECOMMENDED BETS

BACK Philadelphia Eagles over +21 match points 1.5pts at 10/11 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Gardner Minshew over +221.5 passing yards 1pt at 10/11 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Ezekiel Elliott to score a TD Anytime 2pts at 10/11 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

PROFIT/LOSS (DEC 2022): LOSS -20.74 points
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