STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Make no mistake, this AFC North rivalry is a full-on one with plenty at stake, with both teams battling to take control of the division and keep pace with the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC seedings, meaning that the importance of winning this game has never been higher, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

As things stand the Steelers have the slight edge in the divisional race with a 7-2 record against the Ravens 7-3, this being the first meeting between the two sides this year with Pittsburgh having taken both games last year by the same scoreline 17-10. Both sides have the propensity and attacking nature to put up more points this time around.

The Ravens started the season relatively poorly sinking to 0-2 before bouncing back to win seven of their next eight the only blot of their copybook being a rather lacklustre display against their dysfunctional divisional rivals the Browns. After starting 3-0 the Steelers lost their next two before regaining their equilibrium and reeling off four straight wins against admittedly for the most part sides with poor records although that epithet can’t be levelled at them last week when they showed their mettle with a one-point win over the Commanders in a very entertaining game coming back from being at one stage in the third quarter 10 points down.

One of the narratives that runs through this game rather like one of the other main games on this slate, the Chiefs visit to the Bills, is that of the two quarterbacks. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is having an MVP worthy season, in his last eight games Jackson is 7-1 throwing 22 touchdown passes and one interception. However, Jackson faces potentially a tougher time than he’s had of late against a Steelers defence that has contained him well in the past. He is 1-3 against Pittsburgh and has totalled four touchdown passes and seven interceptions while getting sacked 20 times.

Jackson’s opposite number Russell Wilson is undergoing something of a renaissance, having had a torrid time with the Broncos after leaving the Seahawks. Wilson hampered by an injury at the start of the season which led to Justin Fields starting has found a home in the Steelers offence that suits his style of play though and having being very much a run first offence they are starting to open up. The Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per game and 30.3 points per game in the past three weeks and Wilson has shown that he can still throw a “deep ball” when required. 53.3% of Pittsburgh’s yardage has been gained via rushing, second in the NFL but that is steadily changing and facing a Ravens defence that has allowed the most plays of 15 or more yards (88) and 20 or more yards (49) while ranking 22nd in plays allowed of 30 or more yards (14), it won’t be a surprise if the Steelers open up their offence even more given this matchup.

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Both defences have had their moments but looking at some of the statistics from Baltimore games in particular it feels like this one has duplicitous scoring potential. Baltimore games are 9-1 toward the over, the highest rate in the league, their games are averaging a league-high 57.1 combined points per game and Baltimore games are averaging 808.1 combined yards per game, the most in the league. They also lead the NFL in plays on offence of 15 or more yards (93) and 20 or more yards (50) while ranking 3rd in plays of 30 or more yards (14), most of that being down to not only the stellar play of Jackson but also the varied and potent options that they have on offence.

Leading the league in touchdown passes (24), yards per pass attempt (9.3), and QB rating (123.2), Jackson has reached a new performance level in his second year with OC Todd Monken and if explodes then the Ravens offence will also. He’s developed into a better passer than he has been in previous years and that was shown when he went ballistic against the Bengals in the Ravens last outing. After a quiet first half He went wild after the break for the second time against the Bengals this season. In the second half, Jackson was 15-of-19 for 219 yards (11.5 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and 24 rushing yards.

This season he’s been seen at this best when throwing at a more intermediate level on throws 10-19 yards downfield, Jackson leads the league in completion rate (71.0%), yards per pass attempt (12.5 Y/A), and rating (142.3). The Steelers defence does represent a challenge though for Jackson although Pittsburgh will be missing their important edge pass rusher Alex Highsmith who is so important in them putting pressure on the quarterback. With Highsmith on the field, Pittsburgh has a 38.2% pressure rate compared to a 28.5% pressure rate when he is not on the field.

One of the important facets of this game for both sides is will they be able to run the ball, as for all their flamboyant offensive numbers this year, much of the Ravens offensive success has been built on establishing the ground game. This week will be a tough test, on the road, in a rivalry game against a stingy Steelers defence that has allowed the second fewest points (146). The Ravens O-line has been good (11th ranked by Pro Football Focus) making the pass blocking battle a strength-on-strength matchup.

Of course, the Ravens do have “King Henry” in their ranks with RB Derrick Henry acquired in free agency from the Titans having a glittering season. Henry leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,216), touchdowns (14), and yards per carry (6.1) and he has that innate ability to get stronger and stronger as the game goes on and defences are left gasping for air, especially in the 4th Quarter.

Henry features in a Star Sports “Boost” – RB Bankers, which highlights two other feature running backs, the 49ers Christian McCaffrey and the Jets Breece Hall, both of whom have good match ups on Sunday, that trio to all score a TD has been boosted to 4-1 from 7-2.

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In a game that could be more open than it looks, it won’t be a shock if the Ravens take to the air a little more especially if Jackson is given time to throw (the absence of Highsmith may help in that regard), although Baltimore will still have their hands full with perennial defensive player of the year candidate T.J. Watt. Jackson though will have a full complement of receivers including ex-Steelers WR Diontae Johnson who has recently joined the Ravens and is still being introduced into their offensive schemes although it’s unlikely that he will see more usage than the likes of main WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman.

Flowers, having faced the Steelers just once in his career comes into this game off a surprisingly quiet game against the Bengals where he caught four of his six targets for just 34 yards. Flowers can have the odd “down game” but he enters the arena here having banked 100 yards plus in four of his last six games. Against the two coverages that the Steelers run the most (Cover 3 and Cover 1) Flowers has flourished and he’s expected to do so again here. Flowers will be backed by the likes of Bateman, who can blow hot and cold and TE Mark Andrews who is very much the safety blanket for Jackson much the same as Travis Kelce is for Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs. Andrews enjoyed his best game of the season last week, catching 6-of-7 targets for 68 yards and his fifth touchdown in as many games. The Steelers have only allowed 5.6 yards per target to tight ends (third) but they have allowed a 4.7% touchdown rate (21st) to the position.

The 7-2 Steelers come into this game as one of the revelations of the season but if they were to win this game then they would be firmly in command in the AFC North. Having invested on the defensive side of the ball in the off-season, one of the main signings being ex-Ravens ILB Patrick Queen they also drafted well and have come up with a formula on defence that works, especially when you consider that they had some top defensive pieces already. The Steelers defence against the Ravens offence is the pivotal matchup that determines this game. If the Steelers can slow down the Ravens, that will change the entire dynamic of what each team must do to win. Pittsburgh are going to try to score points, but their primary focus is going to be to stop the Ravens from scoring.

In normal circumstances, this would be a game where we would be saying that despite QB Russell Wilson opening up the offence of late the Steelers will still want to run the ball. Here though they will have to compete against a very stout Ravens defence and one that is very good a stopping the run but terrible against the pass. Remember though this is an Arthur Smith offence and it’s going to be hard for Smith, a man who lives “to run the damn ball” to sacrifice his principles although you have to look at the numbers and realise that the vulnerability is there within the Ravens pass defence for the Steelers to take advantage and they have tools and weapons to do so.

Neither of the Steelers RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren inspire much confidence in this matchup although in Wilson’s three 2024 starts with the Steelers Harris’ touch counts are 21, 22, and 21 compared to Jaylen Warren’s 14, 11, and 16. Harris left last week’s game with an ankle injury but is reportedly good to go but he’ll be competing against a Ravens run defence that have allowed 53 yards as a high to any running back this year.

With Wilson in at QB even though it goes against all of the Smith scriptures surely the way to win this game for the Steelers is to attack the Ravens through the air. Wilson has only completed 58.8% of his passes (30th) since taking over but is averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt (6th) with a 7.1% touchdown rate (5th). No team faces a lower run rate than the Ravens, in part because they are good and leading games, but also because their run defence is so good. The Ravens have faced a league-high 53 red zone passes this season. Baltimore has been a worse pass defence on the road, too and they have allowed 8.7 Y/A (29th) and 6.9% touchdown rate (27th) in away games.

Wilson has George Pickens as his WR1 and his stat lines in the three starts that the pair have had together read like this 5/111/1, 4/74/0, and 5/91/1. Wilson will be aggressive downfield and he should be against this Ravens defence, the style suits Pickens play and the Ravens have conceded some huge stat lines to opposing main WRs including 264 yards and 3 TDs to the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase last week. With Mike Williams arriving from the Jets Wilson now has another deep threat to go alongside Pickens and his other wide receivers Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin. Pickens is 14-1 to have the most receiving yards on Sunday with Star Sports in their Week 11 Players Specials Markets and he has the match-up here to be part of the conversation in that scenario.

The game overall sets up as one of the most fascinating on the Week 11 slate, the total at +48.5 is a high one but the inclination is that as a contest it could turn into an explosive one. The catalyst to the game bursting into life is if the Ravens offence performs as normal then Arthur Smith will have to abandon his “principles” and play the aerial game, if they don’t Smith can stay true to himself and keep running the ball. It’s worth noting that the Steelers have outscored opponents 135-55 in the second half this season, the largest margin in the league. One area of the game where the Ravens must be efficient is in the red zone. The Ravens have scored touchdowns on 33 of their 43 red zone chances — their 76.7% success rate is No. 1 in the league. With a competitive 3.5 spread the game is expected to be as close as the position the two franchises occupy in the AFC North, but whoever wins here will have the advantage in that battle with the second part to be played out in Week 16.

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