STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Right now the Detroit Lions can certainly claim to be the best team in the NFC and not many would argue that they would appeal to many as the best team in the NFL, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

At 9-1, the Lions are off to their best start since 1934, own the NFC’s best record, have a league-high eight-game winning streak and the league’s highest-scoring team has topped the 40-point mark in half of those eight wins. And just to round out the positive statistics they enter this game with the lone perfect road record in the NFL (5-0) and whilst we are on a statistically based appreciation of the Lions they also have four games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. That’s the most such games in a season by any team since 1933.

Therefore, the Colts who stand at 5-6 and on the fringe of the AFC playoff race look to have a fair task on their hands having lost three of their last four but got back on the winning trail last week against the Jets by a single point. Taming the Lions offence could be a whole lot harder.

One positive for the Colts last week that after benching last year’s No4 overall draft pick QB Anthony Richardson for the veteran QB Joe Flacco was that on his return last week Richardson looked a far better player. He has to back up last week’s performance though and prove that it wasn’t a one off and that will be no easy task against the Lions. On the downside, Richardson still made some bad decisions and missed some easy throws but he was a far cry from the NFL’s least accurate QB that we have seen in previous weeks completing 20 of 30 passes, throwing for one TD and running for two more including the decisive score. All in all though, with the new “improved” Richardson the Colts offence looked a little more fluid, exciting, and dynamic in Richardson’s first start of his second stint under centre. Colts head coach Shane Steichen appears to be leaning into what his quarterback is fully, something that could unlock his raw upside the rest of the way.

Of course, sound, and safe play from Richardson will go a long way to keeping the Colts competitive, especially against a Lions side which is only too happy to take advantage of any mistakes and turn them quickly into points. With that thought in mind it may well be that we will see a gameplan from the Colts that involves Richardson using his rushing ability more, after all he’s built like a running back and slowing down the Lions potent offence by keeping the ball away from them is one solution to the problem of how to stop the Lions. It’s not a tactic the Colts have utilised much this season and they are currently 31st in time of possession at 26 minutes, 40 seconds. But using Richardson as a runner, especially on early downs, could help the Colts flip the script on Sunday and keep the Lions offence where they can’t do any damage, and that’s on the sidelines.

That’s important when you consider how effective and compelling this Lions offence is. Consider these statistics:

• The Lions have outscored their opponents by 97 points (192-95) in the first half this season, the largest margin in the league.
• 72.7% (40-of-55) of the Detroit scoring plays have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
• After converting 38.5% (5-of-13) of their red zone possessions in Weeks 1-3 (26th), Detroit has converted 82.1% (23-of-28) since (2nd).
• The Lions have converted 13.7% more of their third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.

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Before we look at the Lions offence and their key players let’s finish looking at the Colts offence that Richardson will have under his direction and the skill players that he has to work with although it has to be said that he will be working behind an offensive line that does have some important pieces missing. Colts starting C Ryan Kelly (calf/knee) and RG Will Fries (tibia) are on I.R., while LT Bernhard Raimann (knee) is less than 100%.

The Colts will certainly use Richardson in the run game alongside their main RB Jonathan Taylor who is a real workhorse in the Colts offence. That said he comes up against a Lions run defence that has improved over the last few weeks allowing 87 yards on 40 carries to the Houston and Jacksonville running backs. They have been softer this season against the run versus last year, but they still have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season and with a negative game script looking likely this could be another tough outing for Taylor who only had 60 yards on the ground last week.

Game script if it is a negative one augurs well for the Colts receivers and in particular Josh Downs who has quickly developed into their leading WR. Downs stayed hot on Sunday, catching all five of his targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. Downs has banked 60+ yards in seven of his last eight appearances. The Lions have surrendered the NFL’s most catches (157) and fourth-most receiving yards (1,887) to opposing wideouts and Downs looks sure to be active again especially if the chemistry that he looks to have found with Richardson maintains it’s upward curve this time around.

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We have mentioned a way that the Colts could remain competitive in the game and try to win, ask the same question about the Lions and the answer would be that they control and win the game in any way that they choose. Already this season they have shown multi-faceted approach to winning games and they could choose to do so via their ground game as has been the case for much of the season or like last week when they changed up their approach and attacked via the aerial route. It was only the third game this season where QB Jared Goff had three or more passing touchdowns and his first game of the year with four. It was only the third game all season where Goff had more than 300 yards through the air. In that 52-6 blowout of the Jaguars last week they kept their foot on the gas throughout.

Goff, who plenty are mentioning as a potential MVP candidate has a full-strength offence to work with and faces a Colts defence permitting the NFL’s fourth-highest completion rate (69.5%) and sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6). Last Sunday, Goff connected on 24-of-29 passes for 412 yards (14.2 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns and a season-high 21 rushing yards just to complete the performance. Sunday was the 5th time over the past seven games that Goff completed at least 80% of his passes. That matches the record of games in a season in which a quarterback has completed 80% or more of his passes on double-digit throws.

If the game flows in the expected way then the Lions will want to establish control via their dual RB threat in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both bring their own set of skills but have split the number of touches this season almost equally. Through 10 games, Montgomery has 158 touches and 10 touchdowns while Gibbs has 156 touches and 9 touchdowns. Both will have a part to play here and it won’t be a surprise to see both add to their TD tally this season.

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We know what sort of defence the Colts run most often and it’s Cover-3 and that will be music to the ears of Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Brown holds ridiculous metrics against Cover-3 this season, with a 27.4% target share, 2.59 yards per route run, and a 31.0% first-read target rate. Goff also enjoys playing against Cover-3 and he’s faced that defence on 118 dropbacks this season, the 3rd most in the NFL. On those dropbacks, he has thrown 6 interceptions (the most in the league) but also has completed 77.1% of his passes (2nd) for 10.0 Y/A (4th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (4th). Putting that all together should mean that St.Brown could follow up on his game last Sunday, where he collected 11 receptions for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It doesn’t end there for a Colts pass defence that have given up the NFL’s 10th-most catches (132) and eighth-most receiving yards (1,701) to opposition WRs. Only seven defences have permitted more 20+ yard completions than Indianapolis (32), while the Colts have surrendered the league’s third-most 40+ yard passing conversions (8). That statistic will be an encouragement to the Lions deep WR threat Jameson Williams who already has 538 receiving yards on the year (124 yards last week) and ranks No. 9 in the NFL in 20+ yard receptions (11) and No. 4 in 40+ yard catches (4). Williams now has touchdowns of 52, 70, 37, and 64 yards this season.

The likelihood here is that the Lions control the game as they have the capability to dominate on both sides of the ball but if Richardson plays like he did last week then the Colts have a chance of keeping this closer for longer than many expect. The Colts could have to play from behind and that elevates the upside for their pass catchers especially Downs but in reality, in game that could be full of attacking intent it’s the Lions who should be able to maintain their momentum and retain their grip on the No1 seeding in the NFC, and it’s a grasp that grows stronger by the week.

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