STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams

There’s a high-quality Week 1 game for fans to look forward to tonight at 9.25pm, when the Texans travel to the Rams, writes ANDY RICHMOND. Both teams are coming off playoff appearances in 2024, with the Texans (10-7) winning the AFC South and the Wild Card Round before falling in the Divisional Round, and the Rams (10-7) capturing the NFC West and a Wild Card win before losing to eventual Super Bowl winners Philadelphia.

This time around, both franchises will have loftier aspirations although the Rams have dominated the series, winning three straight, including a 38-22 rout in 2021, where Rams QB Matt Stafford threw for 305 yards. Houston’s only win since 2016 was against the Chargers in 2019.

The Rams are 10-0 in their last 10 Sunday games as favourites and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight, while Houston has covered in six straight Sunday road underdog games, so something has to give there. Recent trends favour the under: four of Houston’s last five road games vs. NFC teams and four of the Rams’ last four as West Coast favourites went under the total points line (44.5).

The Texans will aim to build on their 2024 success under coach DeMeco Ryans and QB C.J. Stroud, who threw for 3,727 yards, 20 TDs, and 12 INTs last season, though he was sacked 52 times due to a shaky offensive line. Houston traded LT Laremy Tunsil to Washington, signing veteran Cam Robinson and drafting Aireontae Ersery to bolster the line, with Tytus Howard as the only returning starter. How that offensive line holds up against a very good Rams pass rush led by Jared Verse and Braden Fiske will be one of the keys to the game. Considering the questions around Houston’s offensive line and the chaos in Houston’s backfield at the moment, an elevated pass rate is likely for Week 1.

That pass rate is also likely to be elevated by the fact that the Texans backfield, which has to operate behind that shaky offensive line, is something of a patchwork quilt, especially with main RB Joe Mixon missing from the equation for at least four weeks with a foot injury. Houston is expected to use a combination of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, and Woody Marks in their backfield to start the season, so good luck trying to work that conundrum out and surely leads to a far more aggressive offensive policy from the Texans. The fact that Mixon is missing may be a blessing in disguise as one of the problems that Houston had last year was the fact that they ran the ball far too often on early downs, leading to long down and distance situations that allowed defences to tee off against the pass and Stroud. New OC Nick Caley replaces Bobby Slowik, aiming to spark an offense that averaged 21.9 points per game.

With Slowik gone, partly because of that malfunction in the offence and with the possible offensive line and backfield woes we should see this year, and especially in this matchup, a quick strike passing game to be the main approach for the Texans’ passing game.

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Coming into his second season last year, Stroud looked to have one of the better wide receiver groups to throw to in Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell, but in reality, injuries to all of them saw Stroud throw just 66 total passes with those three on the field. The injury curse appears to have struck once more as new addition Christian Kirk suffered a late-camp hamstring strain and will miss at least Week 1, if not multiple weeks. Kirk missing means that rather than lean into two rookie wide receivers, we will see the Texans employ dual TE sets featuring Dalton Schultz and Case Stover, which would also help put the seemingly vulnerable offensive line in pass protection. The absence of Kirk also elevates the outlook of Nico Collins, who despite a midseason hamstring injury still caught 68 passes for 1,006 yards and 7 touchdowns over 12 games during the 2024 season. Collins here draws a plus-sized match up against two journeyman starting perimeter corners and it’s not hard to see him accounting for plenty of targets, yards and receptions in the Texans offence.

A trip to Philadelphia in the snow proved a step too far for the Rams last season, but they remain a well-coached team with plenty of on field experience that will be looking to take events further this time around. The Rams 10-7 regular season record for 2024 is quite misleading, as they started the season 1-4 thanks primarily to being ravaged by injuries and lost in Week 18 while resting starters with their division championship and playoff seed all locked up. In the middle, they rattled off nine wins in 11 games, including wins over the Bills and Vikings.

The one slight question mark that the Rams have at the start of the season, though surrounds the fitness of QB Matt Stafford who is dealing with an aggravated disk in his back. Stafford and the Rams are facing a Texans defense that had success while pressuring quarterbacks last season, ranking first in completion percentage allowed and tied for fourth in sacks. Worsening matters, Rams LT Alaric Jackson missed the entire month of August, while the Texans field arguably the NFL’s premier outside pass-rush duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, so as much as pressure will be the problem that C.J Stroud faces for the Texans, Stafford, who turned 37 in February, will also be facing the same problem to solve. Incidentally, Stafford needs 191 yards passing to become the 10th quarterback in NFL history with 60,000 yards. If he reaches the milestone against the Texans, Stafford would tie Matt Ryan (223) as needing the second-fewest games to do so.

On the upside, Stafford has the better wide receiver duo to work with and possibly the best of his career as the Rams have teamed the elusive Puka Nacua with Davante Adams. Nacua averaged 90 yards receiving per game last season, which was third in the NFL behind Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase (100.5) and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (90.2). However, Nacua came up 10 yards short of a second straight 1,000-yard season after missing five games because of a knee injury and sitting out a meaningless Week 18 game. Although the Texans were overall effective against the pass, they did allow touchdowns and Nacua especially looks match-up proof.

For all the passing weapons that Stafford has at his disposal, the Rams do tend to like to establish the ground game but like rather like the Texans of last season they must not let themselves get into long down and distance situations and allow Houston to go full tilt on Stafford in obvious passing situations. Having said that the Rams do possess one of the better workhorse RBs in Kyren Williams who in 2024 handled 350 touches for 1,481 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s not what you would describe as an electric runner and is more a running back who will grind out the yards, but was is undeniable is that he has an instinct for getting in the end zone.

Williams has 26 rushing touchdowns and five receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons, tying Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs for most scores from scrimmage in that span. Williams has been quick out of the gates over the previous two seasons, including scoring in six straight games to open 2024, and seems likely to get into the end zone to start off this season. He has five total touchdowns in his past two home openers, with Rams coach Sean McVay always ready to feature Williams as a runner and receiver inside the red zone.

There is the potential, given the defensive talent on show, for this to develop into a slow-paced grind with points hard to come by, but then you remember that we have a pair of top-level QBs on the field paired with some talented WRs and a few other offensive weapons on both sides that could yet spring to life. All in all, this shapes up as a game where it could come down to whoever has the ball last has the best chance to win the game with each team hitting the mid-20s mark in terms of scoring.

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