STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

The stage is set for one of the most dramatic and unlikely Conference Championship matchups in recent memory, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

In the thin air of Denver, where January winds bite and the altitude tests every breath, the New England Patriots stand one victory away from the Super Bowl. The Patriots entered the season at 80-1 and longer in some places to win the Super Bowl, now they are they are sitting here in the Conference Championship game. In the last 50 years, they are the 11th team to reach a CC game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher. Of the previous ten teams, 7 lost in CC, 2 lost in SB and just the 1999 Rams went on to win it all at 150-1 odds in the preseason.

On the other sideline sit the #1 seeded Broncos and when the Denver Broncos make the Conference Championship game, they are usually pencilled into the Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl era, this is their 11th appearance in the Conference Championship and they are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in those games. At home in Denver, they are 6-1 SU/ATS in the Conference Championship, with their only loss coming to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in 2005-06. However, the was a sting in the tail of the Broncos dramatic win against the Bills that saw them reach this stage of the playoffs the season ending ankle injury to their starting quarterback Bo Nix.

Therefore into the arena steps Jarrett Stidham, a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a regular season pass since 2023, who will become only the second QB since Roger Staubach in 1972 to make his first start of a season in a Conference Championship game. The Patriots know him well as he was drafted by Patriots now OC Josh McDaniels in 2019, now he faces the task of outplaying and outscoring an offence that he could have been the quarterback of. The irony is not lost on anyone.

Defensively these two are ranked in the top six in both points and yards allowed. Two teams that have clawed their way through the gauntlet of the AFC playoffs. One team riding the white-hot momentum of dominance; the other facing its greatest test of resilience.

The New England Patriots arrive in Denver with an aura of invincibility that comes from dominating two formidable opponents (the Chargers & Texans) in consecutive playoff games. They’ve trailed for a mere 2 minutes and 30 seconds across both contests, a statistical marvel that speaks to their complete control of the game flow. Quarterback Drake Maye has needed only 28 pass attempts per game because the Patriots have been that efficient, that dominant.

The challenge now? Another elite defence. But context matters. The Patriots have already dismantled the Chargers (eighth in points allowed, seventh in yards allowed) and the Texans (second in points allowed, first in yards allowed). They’ve proven they can score against anyone, anywhere. Their offence ranks first in yards per pass attempt and fifth in points per game—numbers that reflect not just talent but systematic excellence under first season Head Coach Mike Vrabel.

Denver’s defensive coordinator Vance Joseph relies heavily on man coverage, running it at the second-highest rate in the NFL at 32%. This is both a strength and a vulnerability as man coverage can be exploited by quarterback mobility, and Patriots QB Drake Maye finished 2025 fourth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 450. The Broncos late-season defensive lapses are telling: 34 points to Jacksonville, 26 to Green Bay, 26 to Washington, and 30 to Buffalo. The armour has some cracks against the right scheme and personnel. Maye represents the new breed of quarterback, athletic, poised, and capable of making plays with both his arm and his legs. Against Denver’s man-heavy scheme, Josh McDaniels will feature in-breaking concepts that cater to Maye’s ability to deliver the ball with precision. Crossers and underneath routes will create catch-and-run opportunities, exploiting the natural gaps in man coverage.

But there’s a concern that cannot be ignored: Maye has fumbled six times in two playoff games. Ball security has become a focal point in practice, with the young quarterback working with a mental timer to ensure he’s not holding the ball too long. Against a defence that will bring pressure and can create chaos, this discipline will be tested repeatedly.

Through two playoff games, Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson has established himself as the clear-cut primary back. He’s out-snapped RB TreVeyon Henderson 80 to 51 and vastly out-gained him with 6.3 yards per touch compared to Henderson’s 2.6. More importantly, Stevenson has put his fumbling woes firmly in the past, he hasn’t put the ball on the ground since Week 5. The matchup on paper looks unfavourable against Denver’s stout run defence, but there’s an exploitable weakness: the Broncos allow 5.8 yards per carry against duo runs, while New England runs duo 32% of the time at the third-most rate in the NFL. This is a harsh disparity compared to the 3.3 yards per carry Denver allows against all other run types.

While Denver’s perimeter pass coverage ranks among the elite, the middle of the field tells a different story. The Broncos surrendered the ninth-most yards to tight ends this season (1,015 yards), and in the Divisional Round, Bills tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox combined for nine catches on 11 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. This creates a green-light situation for Hunter Henry, one of the most reliable tight ends in football. Austin Hooper, the Patriots’ No. 2 tight end, also presents another option. In a game where touchdowns may be scarce, exploiting this middle-of-the-field vulnerability could be the difference between victory and defeat.

Looking at the wide receivers on the Patriots offence Kayshon Boutte and Stefon Diggs operated as the top two wide receivers in last week’s victory over Houston, but neither would have a plus matchup here against the Denver CB duo Pat Surtain and Riley Moss, with the former being one of the elite talents at his position in the NFL. Boutte, in particular despite this tough matchup has been in top form in the playoffs securing seven of nine targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. His chemistry with Maye is undeniable and he posted a 75% catch rate on throws from Maye during the regular season. The situation with Diggs is more volatile and his production has been inconsistent, drawing six targets or fewer in seven of New England’s last eight games. While his veteran savvy and route-running remain assets, expecting a breakout performance might be optimistic. Kyle Williams, Pop Douglas, and Efton Chism III round out the rotation, while Mack Hollins looks to be back in the reckoning as he returns from an injury sustained in Week 16 having been activated from injured reserve.

For Denver, the loss of QB Bo Nix could transform this game entirely as the second season quarterback who has led Denver’s resurgence now watches from the sideline, his ankle in a boot, his Super Bowl dreams deferred. In his place stands Jarrett Stidham, a 28-year-old journeyman who hasn’t started a game all season, who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2023. Yet Stidham is not without credentials. He was drafted by Josh McDaniels—now the Patriots’ offensive coordinator—in 2019. McDaniels traded for him again as Raiders head coach in 2022. Sean Payton, Broncos HC and one of the NFL’s offensive masterminds, signed Stidham on the first day of free agency in 2023 with a two-year, $10 million deal, then extended him this past March for two years and $12 million. These are not the moves of teams hedging their bets on mediocrity.

The challenge for Stidham is monumental as he faces a New England defence that has reached a dominant level following the returns of defensive lineman Milton Williams and middle linebacker Robert Spillane. In their last two games, the Patriots accumulated an astronomical 72 pressures, nine sacks, and 20 QB hits. They held opposing running backs to a combined 30 carries for 61 yards and zero touchdowns—a staggering 2.03 yards per carry.

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The injury to Nix isn’t the only one that the Broncos have had to negotiate with question marks over the health of one or two of their wide receiving corps. Pat Bryant, who began the Divisional Round as the first-read receiver and caught three passes for 32 yards on three snaps before suffering his second concussion of the playoffs, practiced fully this week and appears ready to play. However, Troy Franklin exited last week’s game with a hamstring injury after just 13 snaps and he’s listed as questionable which would mean that we would see more of Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Marvin Mims. Mims seized his opportunity last week when injuries elevated him to a featured role. He delivered eight receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown on eight targets, when opportunity knocks, Mims can deliver—but the volume must be there. Courtland Sutton, Denver’s alpha receiver, will likely face shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots’ shutdown corner who has allowed just seven catches on 21 targets for 58 scoreless yards through two playoff games. Gonzalez is one of the four or five best cornerbacks in football yet receives only a fraction of the attention that Pat Surtain II commands.

RB RJ Harvey presents an intriguing X-factor in the passing game. The Patriots conceded the sixth-most targets to the running back position during the regular season, and Harvey caught five passes for 46 yards in the Divisional Round. Payton can design screens and outlet routes that allow Stidham to take the underneath throws when Harvey releases from the backfield. In a game where every completion matters, Harvey’s role could prove crucial. It was thought that RB J.K. Dobbins injured earlier in the season may be back for this game but he’s been ruled out and that leaves Harvey with that important dual role.

This game features two of the most sophisticated defences in football, both capable of suffocating even the most potent offences. The Patriots defence has surrendered only one touchdown in two playoff games—a statistical achievement that borders on the absurd. The Patriots approach centres on taking away the opponent’s best weapon while forcing quarterbacks into difficult decisions. Against Stidham, they’ll aim to generate pressure without blitzing, using their elite defensive line to collapse the pocket while maintaining coverage integrity on the back end.

Denver’s defence relies on man coverage to a degree that few modern defences dare. At 32% man coverage—second highest in the NFL—the Broncos trust their cornerbacks to win one-on-one battles while the front seven generates pressure. Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss form one of the league’s best cornerback tandems, capable of erasing entire sides of the field but that defensive scheme does come with risks especially against a mobile QB like Drake Maye. Maye’s 450 rushing yards don’t happen by accident. They happen because defences playing man coverage lose contain when their eyes drift to receivers instead of staying disciplined on the quarterback.

The likeliest game flow? A defensive slugfest where both teams score below their seasonal averages but where explosive plays still carry legitimate upside. The offensive minds on both sidelines—McDaniels and Payton—are too creative, too experienced, to be completely neutralized but their ability to make in game adjustments will be vital.

The Patriots enter as deserved favourites. Their offence is more explosive, their quarterback more talented, their path to victory clearer. Drake Maye can beat you in multiple ways. Rhamondre Stevenson has emerged as a legitimate playoff performer. The defence has reached an elite level at precisely the right moment. However, Denver have maintained their belief that even without Nix they can win this contest even with Stidham at QB, believing that the play calling ability of HC Sean Payton and their defence can neutralize New England’s weapons.

The thin air of Denver makes every breath difficult especially late in the game and the altitude tests conditioning, composure, and will. But in the end, talent and execution decide championships. The Patriots have more of both and they look the more likely to advance to the Super Bowl not because Denver lacks heart, but because New England possesses the complete package required to win when everything matters most.

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PROFIT/LOSS (JAN 2026): -2.63 points

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