NFL

AUTHOR: William Kedjanyi

STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals

There are a couple of common denominators that tie these two franchises together this season, the first being that both have had up-and-down seasons so far and would have expected to be in better positions than they are, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

The second is that they have both played the same two teams in the past couple of weeks, the Giants and the Browns and have gone 4-0 combined against them, those wins coming without either team having to really step on the gas to win.

The game could also be considered to be a clash of offensive styles with the Eagles wanting to major on running the ball and the Bengals being the opposite with their offence being predicated on the passing game. Those offensive tendencies can be highlighted via these statistics 46% of the Philadelphia yards have been gained via rushing, the highest rate in the league and they will be going up against a Bengals defence that have allowed just 12 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the fewest in the NFL. The Eagles rushed the ball a combined 81 times over the past two games, 10 more times than the next-closest team, for 385 total yards (192.5 per game).

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The Bengals have struggled to run the ball. RBs Zack Moss and Chase Brown combined for just 51 yards against the Browns last week yet QB Joe Burrow is fourth in the NFL with a completion rate of 70.4%. He’s averaging 251.3 passing yards per game and the Bengals have bar far the best passing offence in this matchup, they rank 5th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback. 66.7% (20-of-30) of the scoring plays for the Bengals have been touchdowns, 5th in the league.

If both offences click in this game we could be in for a contest with plenty of back-and-forth, that will see points on the board, if the game stays close. Both sides love to play aggressively in close games but can take their foot off the offensive accelerator if they get a big enough lead.

The Eagles come into this game at a respectable 4-2 but with the NFC East a little more competitive than they expected they need to build on last week’s blowout win against their divisional rivals the New York Giants. They’re a game above the Cowboys and a game below the Commanders with all four of their head-to-head matchups still on the schedule and this road trip won’t be easy. They had the whip hand over the Bengals from 1991 to 2000 winning three of their four matchups but the win column has been barren since then losing three games and tying Cincinnati in two.

The Eagles enter this game having thrown the ball on a limited basis this season, with QB Jalen Hurts averaging 33 pass attempts through September and only attempting 25 and 14 post-bye. To his credit Hurts ball security has been excellent since the Eagles came out of their bye week, not having had a turnover in either of the past two games after he opened the season with four interceptions and five fumbles, losing three. When Hurts has thrown the ball he’s completed 26 of 39 passes for 378 yards and three touchdowns since the bye week.

What will be of interest to Hurts and the Eagles offence is that the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and Hurts is never afraid to take off and run the ball. As things stand the Bengals have allowed league-high marks in carries (7.7) and yards per game (37.7) to QBs. It won’t be a surprise to see Hurts add to and build on those numbers on Sunday.

Of course, Hurts isn’t the only running threat that the Bengals will face as the ever-more impressive RB Saquon Barkley in his first year with the Eagles enters this game after blitzing his former team, the Giants, for 176 yards (the second most of his career) and a TD last weekend. Barkley currently stands third in the NFL with 658 rushing yards and five touchdowns. He’s averaging 109.7 yards per game, second-best in the league to Baltimore’s Derrick Henry. Helped by the fact that Philadelphia’s O-Line has created 3.73 yards before contact per attempt (second) Barkley and Hurts will be the main focus of the Eagles’ offence especially with the Bengals being susceptible to the run. Cincinnati have yielded 136 rushing yards per game and have given up the second-most rushing first downs (65). The one slight misgiving this week about the Eagles run game may well be that their offensive line will be missing LT Jordan Mailata and RG Mekhi Becton and that may just impact their effectiveness on the ground, although both Hurts and Barkley are talented enough to overcome those qualms.

The lack or reluctance to air the ball out has certainly impacted the effectiveness and statistics of the Eagles receiving corps although that group have suffered some injuries this year they will have their two main WRs available for this game in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Brown in particular despite his relatively low-level usage is an important part of the Eagles offence, a factor that was particularly noticeable when he was absent through injury recently. In the three games he’s played, the Eagles are 3-0 while averaging 27.3 points per game. In the three games he missed, the Eagles are 1-2 while averaging 17.3 points. Brown pulled in all five of his targets on Sunday for 89 yards and a touchdown. Brown has appeared in three games this season and he has a touchdown of 40 or more yards in all three games, with target shares of 34.5%, 37.5%, and 35.7%.

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It will be very much the flow of the game that will predict how much the Eagles use their passing game, if the game is close and competitive, both Brown and Smith can expect plenty of usage but if they do get into a lead expect the Eagles to be far more conservative and use the run game to burn the clock and keep the Bengals off the field.

The Bengals may have recorded back-to-back wins which to a certain extent has revived their season but a 3-4 record isn’t where they want to or expected to be and with the Steelers and Ravens looking strong in the AFC North this will be a game they want to win to get them to .500. Despite those relatively easy couple of wins the offence hasn’t had the best of weeks scoring touchdowns on 16.7% of their drives, which was half of the team’s rate from Weeks 1 through 5.

One of the few teams this season that are still favouring the pass over the run their offensive line suffered a blow last week when they lost their best player in that department when Orlando Brown Jr., left the game in the second quarter with a right knee injury. That put QB Joe Burrow under more pressure and the Eagles pass rush had a field day against the Giants last week and they will be looking to put Burrow under similar pressure this week.

Looking at the numbers the Eagles have actually been worse against the run than the pass but that factor is unlikely to see Bengals HC Zac Taylor deviate from his usual one-dimensional game plan which sees him playing aggressively to take the lead and then sitting on that lead if it transpires. If that scenario doesn’t transpire then Taylor is likely then be forced to play with the same aggression. Taylor wants to come out passing, take the lead, and then use the clock on long drives to keep his defence off the field.
Neither the Giants or Browns have really challenged the Bengals offensively over the past couple of weeks but that could all change here. If the Eagles can’t pressure Burrow then he certainly has the ability and receiving corps to hurt them. Only Baker Mayfield (17) and Jordan Love (12) have thrown more touchdowns from a clean pocket than Burrow (11) and it should be remembered that the Eagles allowed had allowed 347 yards on 47 pass attempts to Mayfield earlier in the season.

Ja’Marr Chase is still the WR1 for the Bengals but it’s noticeable that the gap in the receiving prop lines between Chase and Tee Higgins have drawn ever closer this year and in all honesty the pair are on a par. When the pair are both available Higgins lead Chase in terms of targets 45-37 and if both are available on Sunday (Higgins popped up late in the week on the injury report) they will be a real handful for the Eagles secondary.

For all their “reluctance” to run the football the Bengals will surely have noticed that no team has allowed a higher rate of 15-yard runs (9.7%) than the Eagles before their bye and that could open the way for the Bengals to get RB Chase Brown more involved in their offence. Brown turned 17 touches into 53 yards on Sunday. He handled 71.4% of the backfield runs, a rate that has increased for Brown in five straight games and he looks to now be the RB1 over Zack Moss.

With the a reasonable total (48.5) and the Bengals a modest home favourite (-1.5) the environment looks one that could produce a shootout, with the Bengals having a good offence and a defence that can be exploited with the Eagles built in a similar fashion. If the game stays close then both teams like to play aggressively and that will be the catalyst and pathway to points and it’s not hard to see this being one of the more entertaining games this week if that scenario plays out.


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BACK Ja’Marr Chase over 90 yards receiving 1pt at 6/5 (⭐️  ? CLICK TO BET NOW)


(OCT 2024): PROFIT/LOSS -27.77 POINTS


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