STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

A game that sees former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith (now Pittsburgh offensive coordinator) return to his former home rather more quickly than I’m sure the good people of Atlanta would have hoped to have seen a man who appears to have been stuck in the 1990’s with regard to his football strategy. The majority of the talent that he misused in his three years at the helm of the Falcons is still there and given their weak schedule and division it will be a major disappointment if new head coach Raheem Morris can’t at least get Atlanta to the playoffs, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Both teams in essence have had their problems over the past few years and one of those problems is common to both teams in that they have failed to fill the most important position on the field adequately – that of the quarterback. For the Atlanta Falcons, $180 million man Kirk Cousins has been handed the keys to the offence. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are both trying to revitalize their careers after being busts elsewhere. It looked as though Wilson had won the starting quarterback battle over Fields but a calf injury that he first suffered in training camp was aggravated earlier in the week and it looks as though Fields will start on Sunday.

The season opener on Sunday will be the first chance to gauge if either team is finally headed in the right direction with their new quarterback having the keys to the car as it were. Cousins comes into the game off the back of a move from the Vikings for whom he only played half a season last year as he tore his Achilles tendon but given his record with the Vikings he looks a considerable upgrade on what has gone before in recent seasons for the Falcons. Cousins will have plenty of skill players to work with on offence, most of whom were I’m sure left frustrated by the football philosophy of the aforementioned Smith.

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Head coach Morris has been with the Falcons before as assistant head coach, defensive coordinator, and interim head coach over a five-year period. When he didn’t get hired for his current role he spent three years with the Rams before finally coming back to Atlanta and the top job. Morris list of coaching credentials is long, but they’ve almost all come on the defensive side of the ball so it was no surprise to see Zac Robinson installed to run the offence after a period with the Rams as their QB coach. It’s not certain which type of offence that Robinson will run but it’s fair to assume that it will be a similar one to the one that he knows well from the Rams and he has the personnel here to mimic that system, which would use the run game to set up the passing attack.

The pieces are certainly in place to run the offence that way and sweep away the memories of one of the least dynamic offences in the NFL over the past three seasons under Smith. Cousins will need to be up to speed after his injury as Pittsburgh are a pressure-heavy defence, last year’s Steelers ranked top 11 in both sacks (47) and QB hurry rate (23%).

The Atlanta offence looks as though it will be built around Bijan Robinson who was the 8th pick in the 2023 draft. Last year despite some strange use at times by Smith Robinson managed to turn 272 touches into 1.463 yards and 8 TDs, and it’s not hard to imagine a bump upwards in those statistics for Robinson this season.

Robinson actually features in one of the Week 1 Star Boosts that are well worth checking out. RB Bankers at 13-2 (from 5-1) is one that I particularly like as Robinson is matched up with Jonathan Taylor (Colts) and Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) to all score a TD on Sunday and that looks a generous price given the matchups and opposition that all three face.

Robinson isn’t the only skill position pieces that Atlanta have gained through a number of high draft picks over the past few season. Tight end Kyle Pitts was the fourth overall pick in 2021, while wide receiver Drake London was taken at No. 8 in 2022, like Robinson both have been rather squandered by Smith. Pitts failed to eclipse 40 receiving yards per game over the past two years but that could well change this season. After posting 1,026 yards as a rookie, Pitts has totalled 1,023 receiving yards across 27 games over the past two seasons. With Cousins at QB it’s hard not to believe that the talents that Pitts brings to the team will not be more effectively used.

This time around I can see Pitts being an effective weapon in the red zone and end zone and he’s quite a tempting 10-1 to be the first TD scorer. Of course if you are a fan of this play and Pitts isn’t successful but does score at TD later in the game you can take advantage of Star Sports TD Frenzy promotion which is well worth taking a look at.

Alongside Robinson and Pitts another player who looks assured of gaining an uplift in this new look Atlanta offence is wide receiver Drake London who in Smith’s run obsessed offence quarterbacked by Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, and Taylor Heinicke was never going to thrive effectively. He faces a tough Steelers secondary here featuring two very good cornerbacks but with Cousins a far more accurate quarterback than any of the previous incumbents London should be able to thrive this year.

With such a new offence, which may take a while to bed in the Falcons at 1-2 wouldn’t be a team that I would want to include in an any accumulators but the Bills, Bengals, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Dolphins all appeal at short prices to get the job done in a fivefold on Week 1. Of course should just one of those let you down then the Star Sports Acca Fumble offer would be activated to ease the pain and that’s another new feature of the Star Sports NFL coverage to check out this season.

The Steelers finished a surprising 10-7 in 2023 and that’s from a team that used a horrific combination of Kenny Pickett/Mitch Trubisky/Mason Rudolph at quarterback. All three are now gone and we have the Wilson/Fields combo with the latter looking likely to start on Sunday which will make the Steelers offence even more run heavy, which will be music to the ears of Arthur Smith for whom the phrase “Run The Damn Ball” was invented. 55.2% (16-of-29) of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns in 2023 were rushing, the highest rate in the NFL and that may well not change this year.

Whoever is at quarterback for the Steelers on Sunday and going forward another element of change that they will have to deal with is operating behind a much changed offensive line which includes the drafting of tackle Troy Fautanu in the first round and center Zach Frazier in the second. There are other changes also and for a team that relies heavily on their run game all of that disruption may well take time to get used to especially as whoever is at QB they will have to build some chemistry with a group of wide receivers that apart from George Pickens lacks strength in depth.

In the past the Steelers backfield has been a 1-2 punch via Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren but Warren is dealing with a hamstring injury and that should mean that Harris could well lead the NFL in carries if not yards in Week 1. Harris has gone over 1,200 total yards with 8 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. Harris has since Warren came into the mix given up ground in terms of touches but he still controlled the scoring opportunities. Harris out-touched Warren 45-to-22 in the red zone and 22-to-9 inside of the 10-yard line and he’s by far the most likely of the Steelers to score a TD.

This game contains one of the lowest totals on the slate (42.5) and that makes sense with the Steelers sure to come with a strong run game that will eat the clock, and an aim to play strong defence. The Falcons are very much finding their way on offence and they to look a side that will want to establish the run which will enable Cousins to take shots down the field. With both teams favouring the run, two solid defences, new QBs on both sides, and two new offensive schemes, there is a real chance this game stays under the points. The most likely scenario is that this game has a lot of running from both sides and ends up being a one-score game that is determined by who makes the last mistake.

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ANDY RICHMOND

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BACK Kyle Pitts over +44.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 starsports.bet
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BACK Bijan Robinson over +63.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 with starsports.bet
BACK Najee Harris over +55.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 with starsports.bet

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PROFIT/LOSS (SEP 2024): -5.50 points

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