STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Weather conditions are likely to be a lot better this time around for the Pittsburgh Steelers who had recorded five straight wins to grab the lead in the head-to-head race for the AFC North over the Baltimore Ravens before they slipped to defeat against divisional rivals the Browns on a snowy Thursday night in Cleveland, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

Both teams come in rested with Pittsburgh off a mini-bye following their Thursday night snow-game loss to Cleveland and Cincinnati fresh off their actual bye.

Now the Steelers take to the road again to face another divisional rivals who have been stumbling along this season but remain a difficult foe in the Bengals. It will be the first time the pair have faced each other this season (they meet again in the final week of the regular season) and it will be the four remaining divisional games that decide the fate of the Steelers in the playoff race. The Bengals would probably need to “win out” to reach the post season and its really been a season for lost opportunities for Cincinnati. Consider this fact that the Bengals sit at 4-7 but have only trailed for 32.2% of their offensive snaps, fourth in the league but they will be tested here as they face a Steelers defence where 40% of the drives against that D have failed to gain a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s career-best season will be tested by one of the best pass defences in the league. Pittsburgh leads the league in opposing QBR (51.2) because of its zone defence. Burrow ranks tied for first with 27 touchdown passes this season and ranks third with 3,028 passing yards, while wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,056) and touchdown receptions (12). On Sunday, Burrow can become the fourth quarterback in NFL history with at least 3,000 passing yards and 30 touchdown passes in three of his first five career seasons. That will place him alongside two other current QB stars in the NFL, the Bills Josh Allen, plus the Chiefs Patrick Mahomes, and the Pro Football Hall Of Famer, the Dolphins Dan Marino. Despite those gaudy numbers Burrow has overseen a Bengals offence that blown leads and struggled to finish close games, losing three of its past four.

For the Steelers, it looks as though the quarterback change that they made from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson may have been the one that kick started their season. Although recently, it does appear that that Fields has been taking over from Wilson in certain game situations, with some mixed results. This is a friendly spot for Wilson against a Bengals defence that can’t generate pressure, ranking bottom three in sacks (19).

The worry will be for the Steelers as they come into this game is that they have always been a team that have played down to the opposition and that’s been true this season as the three defeats in their 8-3 record are against teams that have a combined record of 12-22. Although it’s the Pittsburgh offence that will be under pressure to win the game the real game within a game is how the strong Pittsburgh defence will match up with the compelling Bengals offence, that will be the real “strength on strength” battle within this contest.

The problem that the Steelers have had on offence is converting in the red zone, they  have converted 44.7% (17-of-38) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, ahead of only the Cowboys (42.9%) and Giants (38.7%). However, they face a real “get right” spot here as the Bengals red zone defence is the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to score on nearly 71% of their trips into that area. Before scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns against the Browns, Pittsburgh went seven quarters without a touchdown. Recognizing their shortcomings, the Steelers are emphasizing red zone offence  along with short-yardage situations in practice ahead of facing a defence that has struggled in those areas.

As already stated Steelers QB Russell Wilson ought to have plenty of time to throw from a clean pocket, that if he gets the chance to do so as Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith is a known “run-first” disciple. Wilson can be up and down as a QB, (that trait was on display in Denver last year) but his numbers have been respectable when he has been asked to throw and he still has a deep ball throw in his armoury. If he’s pushed to throw he will but with Smith calling the offensive shots unless we see the Steelers get behind we can expect  their pass rate above expectation to remain at a minus level – at the moment the Steelers have thrown the ball 9% below expectations with Wilson at QB.

The run game looks to have evolved into a near even split between RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren with Harris out touching Warren 18-14 in Week 12’s defeat, although Warren out-snapped Harris 39 to 27. The Bengals have been slightly easier to throw on than to run against but with Smith calling the shots we should expect more of the ground game than aerial entertainment unless taking to the air is necessary. Warren was the better back last Thursday night in this backfield, turning 14 touches into 64 yards while Najee Harris managed 54 yards on 18 touches. Warren had the lone touch inside the five-yard line, which he converted for a touchdown but that was just the eighth touch that Warren has had inside of the five-yard line over the past three seasons. There have been a few occasions over the past few seasons when it appeared that Warren was making a move on Harris, only to be relegated again and it’s always been a hard situation to work out in terms of who the is going to get the most work on any given day. Whoever is given the carries they ought to be able to have some success as the Bengals have a 56% success rate against running back runs (30th), allowing a first down or touchdown on 25.1% of those attempts (27th).

Since Wilson took over as the starting QB the outlook of the Steelers main receiver George Pickens has taken a step forward although he was limited in the snow against the Browns catching 4-of-7 targets for 48 yards, Pickens still commanded 26.9% of the targets with 49.5% of the air yards. The Bengals have been at their worst against outside receivers this season allowing 8.1 catches per game to outside receivers (28th) for 107.2 yards per game (29th). If Smith does allow Wilson to take to the air then Pickens will be the obvious “go to” target.

A record of 4-7 probably doesn’t to justice to the way the Bengals have played this year and you could easily construct a case that would say that they are the best below .500 team in the NFL. Incredibly, the Bengals have a positive (+1) point differential, despite being 4-7. For comparison, the Falcons are 6-5 and have a negative (-30) point differential.

Burrow has been excellent but not outstanding enough to overcome the Bengals defence that has managed to find ways to lose several close games in heart-breaking scenarios. Unlike many NFL teams the Bengals have not given up on the pass as shown by their first-ranked PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) although Burrow will have to be at his best here with a fearsome Pittsburgh pass rush to face behind an offensive line which is shaky to say the least. The Bengals offence will be at full strength here and as much as the Steelers defence is elite on their day this Cincinnati offence is as good as any in the league.

Whilst their offence is built around the pass and their receivers they have some potential on the ground and RB Chase Brown is the type of back who has traditionally given the Steelers some problems and he’ll have to step up his role in the passing game also. Brown was ultra impressive as a pass catcher in Week 11 in Los Angeles. He caught 5-of-7 targets for 57 yards, making tough catches downfield backs don’t regularly get. Despite being good against the run altogether, the Steelers have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to backfields (20th) while running backs have scored 55% of the touchdowns they have allowed this season, the third-highest rate in the league.

The real contest though will be can the Steelers shutdown corner Joey Porter take away the Bengals primary receiver Ja’Marr Chase and Porter vs Chase is a contest within a contest. Last year in Week 12, Porter covered Chase on 86% of his routes, allowing two contested catches on two targets for 36 yards, with an average separation distance of 0.9 yards. If Porter can win this matchup then Burrow and the Bengals will have to seek out other targets, which they do have in WR Tee Higgins and TE Mike Gesicki.

Higgins last four receiving results versus Pittsburgh are 5/140/1, 9/148/0, 2/27/0, and 6/114/1 and on plenty of other NFL teams he would be the WR1. Returning to the lineup in Week 11, Higgins picked up where he left off, catching 9-of-13 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown. This looks the type of situation where the Steelers may well allow a better game to the WR2 as has happened a few times this season already. Gesicki is by far Cincinnati’s best pass-catching tight end, and the Bengals will have to win with offence to sneak into the playoff race, although his usage does appear to drop when Higgins is on the field.

Overs are 6-0 when the Bengals face teams with winning records this season. The Bengals are 0-6 outright (2-4 ATS) in those games. The total of 47.5 suggests a game that will be competitive and from an offence and defence point of view in looks to be one of good-on-good and bad-on-bad. The Bengals offence has been one of the best in the league and the Steelers defence has been one of the best in the league. If the Bengals win on offence, the Steelers will be more aggressive in trying to fight back against the weak Bengals defence. If the Bengals offense fails, Arthur Smith will be happy to run the ball and eat the clock. The path to this being a very entertaining game will be the one when which says, “Bengals points” and if that happens the whole flow of the game will change.

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RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Joe Burrow over +266.5 passing yards 1pt at 10/11 with starsports.bet
BACK Chase Brown over +27.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 with starsports.bet
BACK Tee Higgins over +70.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 with starsports.bet
BACK George Pickens over +75.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 with starsports.bet

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