STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

The complexion of this game has changed plenty in the last few days with the 49ers being dealt a couple of major injury blows that could put a real dent in their playoff hopes, which are already in the balance with a 5-5 record this season, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

First of all their defence and pass rush in particular was dealt a setback when defensive end Nick Bosa was ruled out with left hip and oblique injuries. San Francisco simply doesn’t have a reliable pass rush when Bosa isn’t on the field. With Bosa on the field, the Niners have a 33% pressure rate and an 8% sack rate. Without Bosa, those numbers drop to 18% and 2%, both of which would rank last in the NFL. Then on top of that, the offence suffered their own misfortune when QB Brock Purdy was ruled out with a right shoulder injury. Those two missing will make life difficult for Sa Francisco as they come to Lambeau Field to meet the 7-3 Packers, the two sides having last met in the NFC Divisional Playoff game that for most of the game the Packers had held the whip hand before the 49ers took the game late on 24-21. Both teams were involved in close games last week the Packers beating the team they have owned for a long time, the Bears on a blocked field goal and the 49ers losing late on to NFC West rivals Seattle 20-17. That Seattle game marked another 4th quarter collapse for the 49ers, a side that has outscored their opponents by 55 points in quarters 1 through 3 this season (7th in the league) but have been outscored by 27 points in the fourth quarter (26th).

It’s strange to see a side like the 49ers at 5-5 considering that their various units are ranked thus – Offence, overall (2), rush (7), pass (4), scoring (T-8), and Defence, overall (6), rush (8), pass (8), scoring (T-16). This in fact will be the first time since 2022, that the 49ers will be underdogs in a game, breaking a chain of 36 consecutive regular-season games in which they have been favoured, the third-longest such streak of the Super Bowl era behind only the 1999-2002 St. Louis Rams (50) and the 2016-20 New England Patriots (64). The last time the 49ers were underdogs was in a Week 7 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs on Oct. 23, 2022. San Francisco were just a 1-point underdog in that one but went on to lose 44-23.

The injuries though will make this a tough uphill battle for the 49ers in a game that they need to win to remain relevant in the playoff picture. The situation for the Packers isn’t as desperate but in a division that also has the Vikings at 8-2 and the Lions at 9-1, keeping up with that pair is vital for their post-season hopes.

Even with Purdy at QB, the 49ers have struggled on offence this season, mainly in part to the injuries they have suffered not only in this game but in prior weeks, with players like Brandon Aiyuk gone for the season and WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey all missing time through injury. Purdy will be replaced at QB by Brandon Allen who will be making his first NFL start in three years and just his 10th overall, in his nine previous starts, Allen has gone 2-7. His last start came with Cincinnati in the 2021 regular-season finale when the Bengals rested usual starter Joe Burrow to get ready for the playoffs. Allen has thrown three passes in the last three seasons but has yet to throw one for the 49ers since joining San Francisco in 2023.

It’s a situation that San Francisco HC Kyle Shanahan has had to deal with before though, QB injuries, and his scheme is designed to be able to “plug and play” for that position, although it won’t be easy for Allen. He will though have a good running game to rely on and a passing game that is designed to get the ball in the hands of the skill players quickly and let them add yards after the catch.

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The Packers have given up some big games to high-profile RBs this season (Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams) and 49ers main RB Christian McCaffrey, now back from an Achilles injury that kept him out earlier in the season is sure to be a major part of their offence, especially with Allen at QB. Green Bay are allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs (22nd) and has a 58.9% success rate against running back runs (27th). A league-high 27.1% of running back runs against the Packers have resulted in a first down or touchdown and they allowed 125 yards and two touchdowns to the Chicago backfield last week after allowing 172 yards and a touchdown to the Detroit backs in Week 9. McCaffrey is averaging 21 touches for 106.5 yards in two games since coming off I.R. He’s playing 92% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps and he’s also playing an effective part in the passing game collecting 10 catches on 12 targets for 95 yards. The other piece of good news for the San Francisco run game is the return of TE George Kittle who has a considerable impact on the effectiveness of this facet of the 49ers offence.

The appearance of Allen at QB makes it impossible to know how effective the 49ers’ aerial game will be, but we are talking about some quality receivers here such as Kittle, Samuel and Jauan Jennings who has really stepped up in recent weeks since the loss of Brandon Aiyuk. Jennings has dominated the team target share over the past few weeks since Aiyuk was lost through injury, leading the 49ers in yards (588) and first-down conversions (30). It may well be that Samuel gets used more creatively getting the ball in his hands quickly and allowing him to generate his own magic, even in the run game where he can also be effective. The Packers have been solid against the pass but they don’t blitz that much and Allen should be able to operate from a clean pocket but it’s the ground game that the 49ers are expected to rely on first and foremost.

For the most part, the Packers offence looks a lot like the 49ers one, and that should surprise as their HC Matt Lafleur comes from the same coaching tree as 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan. Not as explosive as previous iterations of the Packers offence this one is very much built on ball control running the ball first and using that platform to run their play-action passing game and to take their shots deeper down the field. When they are rolling offensively and picking up chunk plays, they can hit some high scores and a lot of production, as the offence’s design gives them opportunities to make big plays.

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Green Bay have also had to play with a backup QB this season but their starting QB Jordan Love now looks back to full health and he oversees an offence that averages 3.7 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game, third in the NFL. Where the Packers have had problems is in the red zone and Love himself has made mistakes in that area of the field despite his obvious play-making ability. 43.9% of Green Bay’s drives reach the red zone or score prior, 5th in the league but the Packers have converted just 48.7% (19-of-39) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 27th in the league. Even without Bosa the 49ers’ defence will present Love with a challenge and the numbers suggest that attacking them, for the most part is better carried out via the run game than through the air.

For that reason, the Packers may well lean heavily into RB Josh Jacobs here who has 838 yards rushing this season to rank third in the NFL entering Week 12. He ran for 76 yards and a touchdown while also catching five passes for 58 yards against the Bears. Jacobs has scored four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) over his past four games. He is the first Green Bay running back to hit 1,000 total yards through the first 10 games of a season since Ahman Green in 2004. Jacobs isn’t a dazzling explosive RB but he gets the job done and moves the chains and sets things up for Love to take those intermediate and deep shots to his receiving corps.

Green Bay’s WR group is a real pick-and-mix and you never quite know who is going to have the big game. Jayden Reed is dynamic out of the slot but can be a rather “boom-or-bust” option, whilst Romeo Doubs provides the safer and more workhorse yards in the passing game. Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson are more likely to provide the deep threat and Watson in particular, who had a slow start to the season looks to be coming into his own now having established a good rapport with Love. Watson had four catches for a career-high 150 yards against the Bears. After getting targeted just 14 times over his first six games, Watson’s had 17 targets in his past three. He had a catch each of the four times Jordan Love targeted him in Chicago.

These games have a history of being tough, closely fought affairs and this one looks no different with each of the past three Packers-49ers games at Green Bay having been decided by just three points. Both teams look likely to base their main offensive strategy around the ground game with field position being important and with both sides “wasting” red zone opportunities this year getting TDs rather than FGs could be important in what on paper looks to be another close one. Turnovers could also be important in a tight game and given the personnel and the likely offensive strategies of the two sides it’s unlikely this will turn into a shoot-out. The 49ers’ injuries and having the home field give the Packers the slight edge and they have the better chance to control the game and put a further dent in the San Francisco post-season hopes.

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