STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans

As we approach the midpoint of the season, it’s probably fair to say that San Francisco have overachieved especially given their lengthy list of injuries this season and they will be reasonably happy with their 5-2 record, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

It would be very much the opposite for Houston, who are 2-4 and struggling on offence. They average 1.86 points per drive, 24th in the league, but they are playing some elite defence, allowing a league-low 1.31 points per drive. Offensively, this week things won’t get any easier for the Texans with wide receivers Nico Collins and Christian Kirk missing through injury and they will be expecting rookies Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to fill those roles.

For the first time since DeMeco Ryans left San Francisco to be the Texans’ head coach, the Niners will have to face a Ryans-led defence. Ryans worked as an assistant on San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan’s staff from 2017-22. It’s a tall order, as Houston ranks first in the NFL in scoring defence, second in defensive EPA and fifth in yards per carry allowed (3.8). Despite rotating between quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Mac Jones, the 49ers lead the league in passing yards per game (271.3) and are tied with the Bucs for the second most yards after the catch this season (923). So an interesting contest awaits here as the Texans elite defence tries to slow down what has statistically been a strong offence.

Both the 49ers and Texans are coming off night games last week, in the last three seasons, when both teams are coming off a night game, the over is 17-9 (65%), going over the total by 7.7 PPG. Last week the 49ers beat Falcons 20-10 while the Texans lost to the Seahawks 27-19.

The key matchup and one that could well decide this game looks to be Houston’s pass defence against San Francisco QB Mac Jones and his top-ranked passing game. The Texans rank fifth in the NFL by allowing just 179 yards passing a game and their seven interceptions are tied for sixth entering Week 8. Jones, who will start again Sunday with Brock Purdy still dealing with an injury, has been strong in five games filling in for him to help the 49ers average an NFL-best 271.3 yards passing a game. Jones has won four of his five starts this season, but he has thrown three interceptions with no touchdowns in the past two games combined. No team is allowing fewer raw points per game than the Texans (14.7), a number that comes down at home to 10.0. In San Francisco’s last nine games vs. a defence allowing 17 PPG or less, they are 1-8 ATS. In a road or neutral site, they’ve lost five straight ATS since the start of 2022.

San Francisco has won the past three games in the series. Houston’s only win in the series came in a 24-21 victory in 2009. The first game in the series came on Jan. 1, 2006, when the 49ers got a 20-17 win in overtime. One statistic that might come to the aid of the Texans is this one, San Francisco have struggled mightily after an outright win. Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are 1-13 ATS after a SU win, failing to cover the spread by 7.5 PPG (SF is 7-7 ATS after a SU loss).

In the Week 7 win over the Falcons, the 49ers looked like the team they want to be for the first time, controlling the pace, tempo, and flow of the game but events may well be a little different here and it’s almost certain that QB Mac Jones will face pressure and that could be a problem for the Niners. When Jones has been pressured, he is averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt (25th), 8.3 yards per completion (33rd), with a 2.1% touchdown rate (22nd) and a 20% sack rate (19th).

⭐️ STARSPORTS.BET MATCH MARKETS ⭐️ 

From a clean pocket, Jones is averaging 8.1 Y/A (11th) and 11.4 yards per completion (8th), but only a 3.4% touchdown rate (26th). Houston are fifth in pressure rate (42%) and Jones may well be seeing plenty of DE Will Anderson who had five tackles and a strip-sack that he pounced on for a touchdown against the Seahawks. The third-year player, who won AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, has 33 tackles for losses in 35 games and has 5½ sacks combined in his past six home games. When they have generated pressure, the Texans have allowed a league-low 33.8% completion rate and 4.9 yards per pass attempt (5th).

The lack of receivers for San Francisco and a fair amount of pass pressure from the Texans may force them into a situation similar to last week against the Falcons, where they had a season-high 174 yards rushing after being held to fewer than 85 in each of the previous five games. At the heart of the San Francisco offence is Christian McCaffrey (CMC) and he had a real breakout game last week, turning 31 touches into 201 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns while accounting for 201 yards of the team’s 324 yards of total offence. Up until Sunday night, McCaffrey had been stacking production as a pass catcher to cover up ineffective rushing output.

McCaffrey still caught 7 of 8 targets for 72 yards on Sunday, but for the first time this season, the 49ers ran the football effectively, probably due to the fact that they had FB Kyle Juszczyk and TE George Kittle active on the offence together allowing them to function far more naturally than on other occasions this season. McCaffrey only ran four times with Kittle off the field Sunday night, rushing 4 times for 3 yards. With Kittle on the field, he rushed for 6.3 yards per carry and 3.45 yards before contact per rush.

We have not seen McCaffrey slow down as a pass catcher, but if he is going to add rushing efficiency to his output on top of that, then he is going to be a handful for the Houston defence here, especially with Kittle back on the field after injury. Although Kittle, who had a 81% snap rate last week didn’t show up in the box score last week, zero catches on two targets, marking the first time without a reception in 127 games in the regular season and playoffs, he continues to be the glue that holds this offence together.

As we have touched on already, Jones and the passing offence face one of the toughest matchups they will face all year, especially with Houston having an elite edge rushing duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, while CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kwami Lassiter lock down the perimeter. Hunter has had two sacks in both home games this season and has 12 sacks and 15 tackles for losses in 10 home games with the Texans since last season. CB Derek Stingley Jr. had an interception last week. He has 22 passes defended and nine interceptions in 20 home games.

CB Kamari Lassiter set career highs with 10 tackles and three tackles for losses last week. All in all, that makes it a tough gig for the Niners’ passing offence, no matter who they field as pass catchers. Kenrick Bourne is the “go-to-guy” for Mac Jones, whilst Jauan Jennings has shown very limited on-field chemistry with Jones, although he is getting 40% of the team’s targets on third downs.

The 49ers’ defence has held up admirably in the face of a plethora of injuries and important defensive players that are missing and they face a Texans team that has their identity within their defensive roots. And now they will be forced to play without their top two options through the air, with both Collins and Kirk appearing to be on track to miss this game.

C.J. Stroud may have had to cope without several of his main weapons on offence, but there is no hiding the fact that he had a disappointing and underachieving season. Stroud found no success on Monday night in Seattle, completing 46.9% of his passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The silver lining for Stroud finding upside here is that the San Francisco defence is also missing some key pieces. Since losing Nick Bosa, San Francisco are 27th in pressure rate (29.2%). Bryce Huff has led the team in sacks (5) and pressures (24). Huff suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday night and is expected to miss multiple weeks, and whilst this isn’t a “get right” spot for Stroud per se, those absences should make his life easier.

What has made life harder for the Texans on offence has been the lack of a functional ground game, almost forcing them to become very one-dimensional. Houston running backs have a league-low 28.5% success rate per attempt. Slowly but surely supplanting Nick Chubb as the Texans’ main RB, Woody Marks logged a season-high 63% playing-time clip in last Monday’s loss to Seattle, handled 13 touches, and scored his third touchdown in three games.

One of Marks’ biggest strengths is his receiving ability as he caught an otherworldly 261 balls in his college career. San Francisco have been strong against the run, but inconsistent against receiving backs in the passing game, which favours this matchup for Marks. The 49ers have allowed the NFL’s fifth-most RB catches (36).

The problem for Stroud will be who does he have to throw to even against a depleted Niners defence with Collins and Kirk both missing the game. Xavier Hutchison looks to benefit the most in terms of targets while some combination of Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, and Braxton Berrios will fill in the rest of the void left by Collins and Kirk although it’s anyone’s guess in what the split or rotation will be.

It’s likely that we will be seeing a lot of TE Dalton Schultz again as he gets a matchup against a 49ers defence now without interior captain and perennial tight-end eliminator Fred Warner and has a legitimate path to 8-10 targets. Schultz caught 9 of 10 targets for 98 yards in Seattle. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 41 yards with Collins off the field. With Collins off the field, Schultz led the Texans with 27.3% of the targets and was targeted on 31.6% of his routes. On the season, Schultz quietly leads the Texans in receptions (30), catch rate (81%), and first-down conversions (16).

This game has all the makings of a tightly contested slugfest, although the San Francisco may have found Houston at just the right time and in Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have two players who can turn the game in their favour, which could well be a low-scoring affair.

---

RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Christian McCaffrey Over +66.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Dalton Schultz Over +49.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Dalton Schultz to score a TD Anytime 1pt at 6/4 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

---

(OCT 2025): PROFIT/LOSS: -21.87 points

---

STAR PROMOTIONS