STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Super Bowl LVIII Specials

The oddsmakers at Star Sports have done a sterling job and produced a cornucopia of extra markets on this year’s Super Bowl which if you have read the main match preview on the site is a closely matched and eagerly awaited contest.

The markets range from the normal offerings, right through to the off the wall. Yes, you can bet on the coin toss, the length of the National Anthem (sung this year by “Queen Of Country” Reba McEntire), the colour of the Gatorade traditionally thrown over the winning head coach (purple is the market leader) and there are a plethora of markets on what Usher will be singing/doing/or being joined by in the half-time show.

So in addition to the more “normal” match markets I’ve taken a look at some of the match specials on offer and some of the more eclectic markets that are always produced for the finale to the NFL season and hopefully we may unearth a couple at big prices to small stakes.

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I have to start by looking at the MVP market and which always attracts a lot of attention and kudos for the winning player.

Here’s a positional breakdown of Super Bowl MVPs: 32 quarterbacks, eight wide receivers, seven running backs and 11 from every other position, there have been four defensive MVPs since 2000.

A WR won MVP two years ago (Cooper Kupp) and in 2019 (Julian Edelman), but it’s been ages since a RB has won. You have to go back to 1998 (Terrell Davis) and ’94 (Emmitt Smith), and we have to make the point with all the narrative that is swirling around Chiefs TE Travis Kelce that the tight end position has never won the MVP in the Super Bowl. If you think that rather long losing streak will be broken then 14-1 will be your odds of reward with Star Sports.

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If Kansas City do win the game then it’s likely that Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will have had a big game and he’s the same price (11-10) as his team are on the Money Line and that’s not a surprise as the two are inextricably linked and quarterbacks on a winning team will always hold an advantage.

There is a slightly different narrative around the 49ers QB Brock Purdy though as you will hopefully have read in the main preview the jury in some quarters is still out on Purdy and if the 49ers do win it will be other skill players on the team that will have done most to get San Francisco the win. If you believe that angle then I think the most likely candidate for the 49ers is RB Christian McCaffrey who the 49ers could build their game plan around. McCaffrey is 4-1 chance with Star Sports with the other player on the 49ers offence capable of blowing the top off the game WR Deebo Samuel at 16-1.

In the main preview, I spoke about the Chiefs defence and particularly the advantage that DT Chris Jones has over part of the 49ers offensive line. Jones is 13-10 to record a sack in this game and that’s a price that is well worth taking given his matchup, he can be a wrecking ball when he gets going and his motor will be running here.

I featured a couple of players in the main preview in the 49ers Christian McCaffrey and the Chiefs Isiah Pacheco to exceed their receiving and rushing lines, respectively. Star Sports have also priced up alternative markets on those two players in terms of those yardage. I particularly like McCaffrey to have 50+ receiving yards at 11-5. Facing a press- and blitz-heavy Chiefs defence, McCaffrey should play an even larger role than usual in the 49ers passing game and he’s more than capable of breaking tackles and adding yards after the catch.

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Pacheco likewise will be a big part of the Chiefs offence and I’m sure they will seek to control the game, keep the ball away from the potentially explosive 49ers offence and as we have seen in the two playoff games so far you can run the ball on this San Francisco defence. Pacheco is 5-4 to go over 75+ rushing yards.

The market on the player with the longest reception is one that has piqued my interest with two players in particular worth considering. The Chiefs Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) has been rather drop prone at times but the deep-threat receiver had at least one catch for 30 or more yards in each of the Chiefs two playoff games.

His ability to stretch the field vertically will be used at some point and if he catches a deep bomb it’s likely to one that sees him feature in this market, the 10-1 is worth a dart throw. For slightly different reasons the 49ers player that I’m going to side with in this market is WR Deebo Samuel (11-2) not for his deep threat ability but more for his open field ability to turn a 10-15 yard reception into a 40-50 yards one due to his speed and elusive running style after the catch.

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The exact winning margin market is a fun one that will hopefully maintain interest to the end of the game which I expect to be a close one as the past two Super Bowls have been. The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is three points, which has happened eight times. The next closest is four points (six times) and seven is another key number so backing those three outcomes at 5-1, 14-1 and 8-1 looks worth a small stakes play.

I’ll finish off the Specials section with a couple of plays that I like the look of. The first is the shortest made field goal being over +26.5 yards at 5-6 as I believe that if either offence is within this sort of range on 4th down they will go for it rather than kick the field goal.

Last but not least Mahomes-to-Kelce is a connection that is an enduring one and I’m sure that the pair who have a particular chemistry, especially in the playoffs. On the Chiefs first drive against Baltimore in the Championship game it was all Mahomes-to-Kelce with Pacheco on the ground and I suspect the same game plan to unfold for Kansas City here. In that game Mahomes threw three times to Kelce on their first drive for 36 yards and a TD.

Kelce to gain 20+ receiving yards in the first quarter on that premise (something he accomplished in Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers) looks well worth taking an interest in at 10-11.

ANDY RICHMOND

RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Shortest Made Field Goal Over +26.5 Yards 2pts at 5/6 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Christian McCaffrey (49ers) over +50 receiving yards 1pt at 11/5 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) over +75 rushing yards 1pt at 5/4 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Travis Kelce 20+ First Quarter Receiving Yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Chris Jones (Chiefs) To Record a Sack 1pt at 13/10 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Exact Winning Margin Three Points 0.5 pts at 5/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Exact Winning Margin Four Points 0.5 pts at 14/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Exact Winning Margin Seven Points 0.5 pts at 8/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chiefs) to have Longest Match Reception 0.5 pts at 10/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Deebo Samuel (49ers) to have Longest Match Reception 0.5 pts at 11/2 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)