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SUPER BOWL LVIII

11 February, 2024

AUTHOR: Star Sports Content

STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Super Bowl LVIII

At the risk of jinxing it, I think we’re going to get a competitive Super Bowl for the third straight year.

Super Bowl LVIII brings us a clash of the two most consistently dominant teams over the past five years with a win for the Chiefs giving them a third Lombardi Trophy in five years and the list of teams that have achieved that feat is a fairly short one. The Steelers, the Cowboys, and Belichick’s Patriots, twice are the teams that Kansas City would be joining in that pantheon of fame.

Both quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) and Brock Purdy (49ers) were in elementary school the last time an NFL team won consecutive Super Bowls, which the Chiefs will be trying to do here in Las Vegas. There were eight repeat winners over the first 39 Super Bowls, but none over the last 18.

As for the 49ers, well those five years have seen plenty of success but not the ultimate prize with a loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV probably the most painful as Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes engineered a fourth quarterback comeback and 21 unanswered points to see Kansas City home 31-20. That’s not the first time that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has seen a side he’s been involved with blow a lead in the Super Bowl as he won’t want to be reminded of his part in Atlanta collapse in Super Bowl LI. Shanahan was then offensive coordinator for the Falcons as Tom Brady and the Patriots recovered from 28-3 down to win 34-28.

As usual, there are multiple narratives within this Super Bowl with the one swirling around the two quarterbacks perhaps one of the most interesting.

To say they come from opposite ends of the spectrum would be an understatement and in draft terms they are poles apart. Mahomes, who most if not all would recognise as the premier QB in the NFL went in the first round (10th pick) in the 2017 draft. On the other hand 49ers QB Brock Purdy was Mr Irrelevant the very last pick (#262) in the 7th round in 2022, he’s come a long way since then. Mahomes has 14 playoff wins as starting quarterback, tied with Peyton Manning, John Elway, and Terry Bradshaw for the third most by a starting quarterback since 1950 — trailing Brady (35) and Joe Montana (16). Mahomes at age 28 will become the youngest quarterback in history to start a fourth Super Bowl, two years faster than the previous youngest, 30-year-old Tom Brady in 2007. With a victory, Mahomes would join Brady and Pro Football Hall of Famer Troy Aikman as the only quarterbacks ever to win three Super Bowls prior to their 30th birthdays.

Purdy could become the lowest-drafted starting quarterback to win the Super Bowl (excluding Kurt Warner, who was undrafted). In his career (including playoffs), Purdy has a 21-5 (.808) record. He is the third-youngest starting quarterback in Super Bowl history (24) – only Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger were younger.

It’s a fascinating contest and the Chiefs and 49ers meet for the second time at this stage of the season, the eighth time in history we’ve had two teams face multiple times in the Super Bowl.

Oh, and Taylor Swift will be watching, too (obligatory mention).

Five months ago, the season began with a Chiefs loss, and if Detroit had beaten San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game we would have had for the first time ever a repeat of the opening game. The 49ers spoilt that perfect symmetry can they now spoil the Chiefs attempt at dynasty status?

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WARM UPS

The Season So Far

The Niners for the most part sailed through the regular season, racking up 12 wins with a point differential of plus-193, third best in the NFL. They were so dominant in the conference that they wrapped up the NFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 17. The main question asked throughout the season was how would San Francisco fare in a tight game or when they had to play from behind. We got that answer in the affirmative in the playoffs as they came from behind against both the Packers and Lions in their two playoff games, erasing a 17-point deficit against Detroit. Good though those two victories were they won’t want to give Mahomes and the Chiefs such an advantage.

It was a an up-and-down regular season for the Chiefs, and although they ended the season 11-6, those six defeats were the most that they have suffered since Mahomes became the starting quarterback. Mahomes had the worst statistical season of his career in many categories, and the Chiefs were not among the league leaders in points as usual. Instead, they finished 15th in scoring (21.8 PPG) and unusually for them it was the defence that stepped up and carried the workload. The post season was also strange as they had to go on the road after beating the Dolphins at Arrowhead but looked back to their best in beating the #2 seeded Bills and #1 seeded Ravens.

Statistics To Know

If the Chiefs win as an underdog, they’d be the seventh team in history to win as an underdog in the Divisional Round, Conference Championship and Super Bowl. The other teams: The 1981 Raiders, 2008 and ’12 Giants, ’13 Ravens, ’18 Eagles and ’21 Buccaneers.

The Chiefs’ receivers had the highest drop percentage in the NFL during the regular season at 6.2%. Their drop percentage during this postseason is just 3.3% — which would have tied for ninth best during the regular season.

Kansas City have a 13-2 record (including playoffs) when they hold opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Chiefs are 1-4 when opponents score at least 21 points.

The Chiefs were the seventh preseason Super Bowl odds favourite to lose outright in Week 1 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the first to do since the Patriots in 2017. Six of the seven still made playoffs (2002 Rams), and three have now made the Super Bowl (2023 Chiefs, 2017 Patriots, 1993 Cowboys) and one won it all (1993 Cowboys).

When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. The Chiefs re 54-7 SU (89%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 19-0 SU in the last two seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.

The 2023 Chiefs are the fifth defending champ in the last 25 seasons to return to the Super Bowl. The others: 2020 Chiefs (lost), 2017 Patriots (lost), 2014 Seahawks (lost) and 2004 Patriots (won).

When the game hits the second half, the Chiefs have virtually run out the clock all season. Chiefs wins are 18-2 to the second half under in their last 20 games and 19-1 to the fourth quarter under.

The 49ers have led for 22.9% of time through their two games this postseason, the second-lowest percentage of time leading in the postseason entering Super Bowl (1994 Chargers).

The 49ers dominated opponents in wins during the regular season this year. Their 11 wins of 10 or more points were the most in the NFL. In the playoffs, though, San Francisco has won their two games by a combined six points. San Francisco had nine wins of 16 or more points this season, which was tied with the Cowboys for the most in the NFL. Only seven teams have won nine or more games by 16 or more points during a regular season in the Super Bowl era, but only one won the Super Bowl: the 1999-2000 Rams.

San Francisco trailed by 17 points in the NFC Championship Game. That’s tied for the third-largest comeback in conference championship history, tied with the 2012 49ers, who lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens.

The Niners are the fourth team to have both a 4,000-yard passer (Purdy) and four players with 1,000 scrimmage yards (McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle) in a season, but they are the first of them to make the Super Bowl.

When Shanahan’s 49ers teams are trailing entering the fourth quarter, they’re 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season.

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Betting Overview

Favourites & Underdogs – Super Bowl favourites are 36-21 SU and 27-28-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Super Bowl underdogs are 9-7 SU in the last 16 Super Bowls, including 11-5 ATS. This time around at Star Sports San Francisco are -1.5 favourites (17-20). This is just the third time in Super Bowl history that the defending Super Bowl champ was listed as the underdogs in the Super Bowl the next season. The previous two teams the Cowboys and Seahawks both lost. Drilling down further: 22 Super Bowls have had a spread of four or fewer points. The SU winner has covered in all 22 (11 favourites, 11 underdogs).

The San Francisco 49ers were favoured in all 17 regular-season games (the only team in the NFL to do that this season) and were favourites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs. They’re the 10th team (and the fifth 49ers team) to accomplish both in the same season since 1980. Seven of the previous nine teams made the Super Bowl — including five straight teams in the last 30 years — and four hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

The NFC has not won three straight Super Bowls since 2010-12. Prior to that, it was 1985-97, when the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls. The NFC had a two-game win streak before the Chiefs beat the Eagles last year. The NFC has struggled in Super Bowls as favourites, going 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games when laying points dating back to 1996.

This is poised to be the 16th straight Super Bowl with the favourite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.

Kansas City have now moved to an 8-3 record (9-1-1 against the spread) as an underdog with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback with a 3-0 record in the postseason. To provide some further context to how absurd that is, Mahomes has made 96 starts in the regular season and now 17 starts in the postseason. He has been an underdog just 11 times.

The Super Bowl Total – The over is 27-28-1 in the Super Bowl. (There was no total in Super Bowl 1.)

• The under had cashed in four straight Super Bowls before last year’s 38-35 shootout.
• The under is 11-9 in the last 20 Super Bowls. The over has received public support in 16 of those 20 games, in which the over is 7-9.

This time around Star Sports have the Under/Over pitched at +48.5 (1/1) and -48.5(17-20)

This will likely be the 31st Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer. The SU winner has covered the spread in 29 of 30 games. Fifteen ‘dogs have won outright and 15 favourites have won outright. The Rams (-4.5) beating the Bengals by three in February 2022 broke the streak.

GAMEPLANS

Time now to take a look at little more of an in-depth look at what may well happen when each offence has the ball and how the opposing defence will react and combat two very effective but potentially very different offences.

Chiefs Offence vs 49ers Defence

It’s fair to say that even with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback the Chiefs normally ultra efficient offence had its struggles this year. The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked eighth in yards per game (353.1, down from a league-leading 404.6 in 2022), seventh in pass yards per game (244.8, down from 288.9 in 2022), and 18th in rush yards per game (108.3, down from 115.7 in 2022) but it was their inefficiency in the red zone that caused them problems. Some of those difficulties were caused by a subpar supporting cast for Mahomes with the wide receiving corps until Rashee Rice stepped up to the plate having plenty of trials, tribulations and drops.

Here they face a 49ers defence that has for much of the season been really good but the way they have performed against the Packers and Lions in the two playoff games will have given some cause for concern especially with Mahomes pulling the strings for the Chiefs offence. It’s not that Mahomes has been explosive this year he’s not passed for more than 262 yards in a game since Week 15 and has thrown for 300 yards in one of his past 12 games but he has been brutally efficient running what for the most part is a ball-control passing offence predicated on short throws and yards after the catch and of late a very solid running game. Mahomes, being Mahomes has found a way to elevate those around him and that’s what truly great players do. If you’re looking for some piece of kryptonite that works against Mahomes, you’re not going to find it. He still has the ability to solve pretty much every type of problem.

Having said that the 49ers can’t just stand back and let Mahomes pick them apart, Mahomes still avoids sacks better than any passer in the NFL, but pressure has impacted him more this season than at any stage of his career. 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa will be the main pass rusher attempting to hunt down Mahomes and when he lines up over Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor, that’s a big mismatch in San Francisco’s favour. Taylor really struggled in pass protection against the Ravens and the Chiefs cannot afford to let him take on Bosa one-on-one all game in pass protection.

Of course, Mahomes is extremely mobile and he has scrambled seven times for 84 yards this postseason and in the regular season, Mahomes ran for a career-high 413 yards. Known for putting the game on his back it won’t be a surprise to see him exceed his rushing yards line of +25.5 (8-11). I suspect that Chiefs HC Andy Reid will want to be fairly aggressive within reason from the start and attempt to make the 49ers feel uncomfortable and play from behind which was very much the game plan for the Packers and Lions. To do that though he will need to establish the ground game and while the ground game for much of the season was below par it has established some momentum throughout the playoffs and I’m sure Reid, who is one of the best coaching minds in the NFL will have noted how much success the Packers and Lions had on the ground especially when running outside the numbers. The Packers and Lions combined to rush 57 times for 318 yards—5.6 yards per carry—against the 49ers.

One specific area to watch: the Chiefs running the ball out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers), this has been a consistent problem area for the 49ers this season. Isiah Pacheco will carry the main load on the ground for the Chiefs and he’s been “running angry” in the past few weeks. Pacheco has rested in four of the past nine weeks and is averaging 23.5 touches for 111.5 yards and a touchdown over his last four appearances.

Apart from Pacheco, the rest of the Chiefs offence is a condensed one in the passing game funnelling pass targets to two players, tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Rashee Rice with the remainder of the pass receiving corps such as Noah Gray, Marquez Valdes-Scantling,Justin Watson, Richie James, Blake Bell, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman all reduced to situational roles. Both Kelce and Rice are good against zone defences which the 49ers tend to use at a fair rate. Kelce in particular has come alive in the playoffs and looks back to his old self and his chemistry with Mahomes is at times almost indefensible. Kelce has a special gift for recognising what the defence is doing and finding open space. Kelce was fantastic in the AFC championship (catching all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown) and has shown he can still dial it up to an elite level when the spotlight is at its brightest. Mahomes is sure to be looking for him in the end zone as he has did twice against the Bills and once against the Ravens.

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49ers Offence vs Chiefs Defence

It’s worth reemphasising just how dominant the 49ers offence has been this season but underestimate this Chiefs defence at your peril! They have allowed just 15.6 points per game through 20 games; that’s the lowest average for any Chiefs defence since Andy Reid became their head coach in 2013.

When you look at the San Francisco offence though it is stacked at the skill positions but they won’t be able to afford the sort of chaotic, slow start to the game that they have suffered in their two playoff games so far. Against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and company, this team cannot afford to have another slow start on the nation’s biggest stage. To buck that trend, look for the 49ers to attack the one pure weakness of Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive scheme relentlessly to start the game – the run.

Before we discuss that part of their offence though we must examine the 49ers QB Brock Purdy who continues to divide opinion. He now faces a Chiefs defence that has so far dealt with Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. Kansas City’s goal will be to force the 49ers into obvious passing situations. The Chiefs love flooding the field with defensive backs and they will challenge Purdy to beat them through the air and he unlike Mahomes has been known to take risks especially when the opposition bring pressure. Purdy had 10 off-target throws in the divisional round against the Packers; that’s the most he’s had in a game all season and he wasn’t much better against the Lions. One of the keys of the game for Purdy will be ball security, give the Chiefs a chance of an interception and they are likely to take it and you don’t want to give Mahomes a short field.

The offensive line that Purdy operates behind is good but it’s not great, although they have an eminent left tackle in Trent Williams but they are vulnerable on the right side of the O line in particular. The 49ers need to have a plan for trying to block Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones who as we saw against the Ravens is capable of being a one man wrecking ball. His 32 quarterback hits are 13 more than any other Chiefs player. Jones will line up in different spots but look for Kansas City to match him up against right guard Jon Feliciano or right tackle Colton McKivitz. It will not be a surprise to see Jones record a sack in his game (13-10) and Purdy may have to use his scrambling ability to avoid any such pressure.

One of the challenging aspects of facing the 49ers offence is their diversity of personnel usage often lining up with what could be described as a “power package” with two running backs and two tight ends in various formations, with fullback Kyle Juszczyk an integral part of that type of formation. This isn’t how the Chiefs prefer to play. Their strength is in the secondary. They want to flood the field with defensive backs and play in their nickel and dime packages and looks. But that’s impossible to do when the 49ers play with their heavy/power personnel packages as you are then mismatched upfront.

The biggest matchup advantage for the 49ers on paper is their running game against the Chiefs run defence. In Christian McCaffrey (CMC) the 49ers have one of the players apart from Mahomes who is capable of taking over this game. CMC has played 98 and 91 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in the playoffs so far while seeing 29 (12 targets) and 25 (five targets) running back opportunities against the Packers and Lions, respectively. CMC will without doubt handle most of the 49ers work out of the backfield against a Chiefs defence that is most susceptible to ground-based attacks.

Even in a game with San Francisco trailing big against one of the better run defences in the NFL two weeks ago, McCaffrey ran the ball 20 times. Shanahan has shown that this offence is going to play off McCaffrey regardless of the script and it’s not hard to see CMC going over 100+ yards on the ground priced at 11-8, although he will also have a major part I believe in the 49ers passing game especially against Chiefs blitz packages. McCaffrey’s usage as a receiver will allow the 49ers to extend drives and create explosive plays opportunities. Sure to be heavily used in the red zone he’s been boosted to 11-4 to score 2+ TDs by starsports.bet.

McCaffrey isn’t the only playmaker that the 49ers have though with the likes of WR’s Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel along with TE George Kittle all capable of creating havoc and producing big plays. Aiyuk for all his talent has a tough matchup against Chiefs shadow corner L’Jarius Sneed, and both he and Kittle will need to win against the man coverage that the Chiefs will surely employ. What the 49ers need to realise is that they don’t need to challenge the Chiefs deep against their ball hawking secondary. San Francisco led the NFL with 75 completions of 20-plus yards, and 49 of those were throws that travelled fewer than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage.

All of that comes about as Shanahan’s scheme is all about getting his playmakers the ball in space and on the move. The 49ers led the NFL in yards after the catch per reception and tackling will be all important for the Chiefs especially with an elusive individual like Deebo Samuel. This season, including the playoffs, the Niners have averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel on the field, compared with 5.5 yards per play when he’s off the field.

Over the last eight games in which Deebo logged at least a 40% playing-time clip, he reached 59 receiving yards five times and was consistently a huge part of HC Kyle Shanahan’s game plan, averaging 90.6 total yards from scrimmage. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed just 39 completions of 20-plus yards—tied for the fewest in the NFL. But, in terms of yards after the catch, they were right around league average. In this game, they’ve got to be able to prevent those 11-yard completions from becoming 25-yard gains because of missed tackles.

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EXTRA POINTS

A few more points to make before we wrap things up in the end zone.

Referee Bill Vinovich is leading his second Super Bowl crew in the past five years, and his third overall. His regular-season crews have annually thrown the fewest flags in the NFL for most of the past decade, although his 2023 crew tied for the seventh fewest. Vinovich was the lead referee for Super Bowl LIV, which also matched the Chiefs and 49ers. That crew threw a total of 11 flags, two of which were declined. Of the remaining nine, five went against the 49ers and four against the Chiefs.

49ers rookie kicker Jake Moody has missed four kicks in his past three games (3 of 6 FG, 9 of 10 extra points). He missed just three kicks in first 16 games of the season (21-24 FG, 58-58 XP).

The team wearing their white jerseys has won 16 of the last 19 Super Bowls, the Chiefs will be wearing red, while the 49ers will wear their white jerseys.

The team that scored last has won each of the last 18 Super Bowls. The last Super Bowl that saw the team that scored last lose was the Patriots-Eagles matchup in 2005.

The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is three points, which has happened eight times. The next closest is four points (six times).

Sunday features one of the best defensive matchups in Super Bowl history. During the regular season, Kansas City allowed just 17.3 points per game, second in the league behind Baltimore. San Francisco’s defence (17.5) ranked third.

Eighteen of the last 20 Super Bowls have been within a single score in the 4th quarter.

Super Bowl I, Jan. 15, 1967: CBS telecasted the game nationally using 11 cameras.

Super Bowl LVIII, Feb. 11, 2024: CBS will telecast the game with 20 cameras embedded in end-zone pylons, among its 165 cameras on-site.

On the subject of MVP in the game and the other more eclectic prop lines and specials that the oddsmakers at Star Sports have lined up for me to take a shot at I’ll be taking a separate look at those in a column that will be published alongside this one on Sunday morning.

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THE END ZONE

Time to tie together all the loose ends having looked at all the match facts, statistics and game plans that go into this chess match of a game and it’s one of fine margins as the close spread would suggest. However, it’s also a game of multiple outcomes one of which totally depends on the start that the 49ers make to the game, one akin to the Packers and Lions contest and the game could be over before Usher starts warbling at half time. A better start and a lead would force Mahomes and his condensed offence to put the game on his back. Alternatively we could see a Super Bowl between two heavyweights who can move the ball with ease up and down the field.

Coming into the game it’s hard not to have been impressed by the way the Chiefs have handled the playoffs and they look like a team that knows how to win and it’s hard to bet against a team that has Mahomes at quarterback and Mahomes as an underdog. They stand on the edge of becoming a dynasty with just the 49ers standing in their way. It’s almost 30 years since San Francisco secured a Lombardi and Kyle Shanahan will want to banish the demons from his previous Super Bowl exploits. There’s no doubt that Shanahan is a great offensive coach but his reticence to push the envelope situationally has hurt him in each of his trips to the Super Bowl – if he can clear that hurdle he has the skill players to hurt the Chiefs and edge home in another Super Bowl that will go down to the wire.

ANDY RICHMOND

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