STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Super Bowl LX

The lights of Levi’s Stadium will burn bright on Sunday, illuminating one of the most improbable championship stories the NFL has ever written, as the Patriots take on the Seahawks in Santa Clara for the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LX, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

When oddsmakers posted their preseason numbers, they gave the Seattle Seahawks 60-1 odds to win it all. The New England Patriots fared even worse at 80-1. These weren’t teams expected to contend—they were afterthoughts, franchises in transition, squads that the analysts had written off before a single snap was taken. Yet here they stand, the last two teams remaining, each having carved an improbable path through a gruelling season and postseason gauntlet.

The Seattle Seahawks arrive in Santa Clara carrying the weight of redemption on their shoulders. Just one year ago, they sat at home during playoff weekend, nursing the wounds of a disappointing campaign. Head coach Mike Macdonald, in only his second season at the helm, faced questions about whether he could resurrect a franchise that seemed stuck in mediocrity following the dissolution of the legendary Legion of Boom defence that once terrorized the league. The offseason brought even more turbulence—a contract dispute led to the shocking trade of two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders, leaving Seattle scrambling for answers at the game’s most important position.

Enter Sam Darnold, the former third overall pick whose seven-year NFL journey had been defined more by unfulfilled potential than actual success. After bouncing between the Jets, Panthers, and 49ers, Darnold finally found his footing with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, delivering a breakout season that caught Seattle’s attention. The Seahawks took a calculated gamble, signing the quarterback on the same day they traded Smith away. What followed was nothing short of remarkable—Darnold transformed into the leader Seattle desperately needed, guiding the team to a 14-3 record and the NFC’s top seed. Now, he stands on the precipice of completing one of football’s greatest comeback stories, seeking to silence the doubters who once labelled him a bust.

Across the field, the New England Patriots bring their own narrative of rebirth. This isn’t the Patriots of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick—that dynasty ended years ago, culminating in their last Super Bowl victory in 2019. The franchise that once defined excellence spent recent seasons searching for an identity in the post-Brady wilderness. Like Seattle, they too missed the playoffs in 2024, sparking debates about whether the Patriots mystique had permanently faded.

But football has a way of rewarding patience and preparation. The Patriots’ 14-3 record as the AFC’s second seed represents a stunning organisational revival. Leading the charge is QB Drake Maye, who at just 23 years old becomes the second-youngest quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl. His youth and fearlessness have energized a franchise eager to prove that championship football in New England didn’t retire with number 12. A seventh Lombardi Trophy would be unprecedented, extending their record of Super Bowl appearances to twelve and cementing this Patriots iteration as worthy successors to their legendary predecessors.

The venue itself adds layers of meaning to this contest. Levi’s Stadium, home of the San Francisco 49ers, becomes the rare stadium to host multiple Super Bowls, having previously welcomed the spectacle for Super Bowl 50 in 2016. The broader Bay Area has been the backdrop for NFL championship glory since 1985, when Stanford Stadium hosted Super Bowl XIX.

This Super Bowl represents the first time in NFL history that both participating teams will wear monochromatic uniforms. As the designated home team, New England has elected to wear white jerseys and white pants, becoming the first home team to choose white since Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. Seattle will counter in their signature navy blue tops and navy blue pants, creating a stark visual contrast that mirrors the collision of these two resurgent franchises.

The storylines heading into game day are rich with intrigue. Will Sam Darnold complete his journey from draft bust to Super Bowl champion, validating every coach who saw potential in his cannon arm and proving that second chances can lead to redemption? Can Drake Maye’s youthful brilliance overcome the pressure of football’s biggest moment and launch a new Patriots dynasty? Will Seattle’s defence, channelling memories of the Legion of Boom, recreate the iconic safety that opened Super Bowl XLVIII against Denver? Or will New England’s rebuilt roster prove that championship DNA runs deeper than any single player?

Both teams enter having already accomplished what seemed impossible. They transformed from playoff outsiders to conference champions in a single season, defying the odds and silencing critics who had counted them out. One more victory separates them from immortality. One more game to validate the journey. One more chance to prove that in football, as in life, the most beautiful stories are the ones nobody saw coming.

As the sun sets over Silicon Valley and the stadium lights illuminate the Santa Clara sky, Super Bowl LX will deliver its verdict. Two unlikely champions. One unforgettable night. This is where redemption meets destiny, where youth challenges experience, and where the impossible becomes reality. This is Super Bowl 60, let’s take a look inside the contest.

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THE SEASON SO FAR

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 🔴

The Patriots have forged their path to the Super Bowl through an exceptional defensive performance and a strategic offensive approach. Throughout the postseason, New England have demonstrated remarkable defensive dominance, trailing for only 2:30 through their first two playoff games before adding 23:09 to that tally in their Conference Championship victory over Denver. The team’s ability to control games from ahead has been a defining characteristic of their playoff run.

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown maturity beyond his years, attempting just 29, 27, and 21 passes in three playoff victories. This conservative passing approach highlights the team’s clear propensity to rely on their defence in winner-take-all games. The strategy has proven effective, as the Patriots have defeated three of the league’s top defensive teams: the Chargers (8th in points allowed), Texans (2nd in points allowed 1st in yards allowed), and Broncos (4th in both points and yards allowed), holding them to a combined average of just 8.67 points per game.

The Patriots have averaged just 18.0 points per game this postseason, the fourth fewest by any team entering the Super Bowl all-time and the fewest since the 1979 Rams. Despite this low offensive output, New England is the first team since the 1970 merger to defeat three of the top five total defences en route to their Super Bowl appearance. Including playoffs, the Patriots have led at halftime in 17 of 20 games this season, tied with the 1984 49ers for the most such leads in a season in the Super Bowl era.

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 🦅

The Seahawks have dominated opponents on their way to Super Bowl XL, riding a nine-game winning streak that represents the longest active streak in the NFL and the second-longest in franchise history. Their success has been built on an elite defence that held opponents to the fewest points per game (17.1) and seventh-fewest yards per game (293.2) during the regular season. Seattle finished the regular season ranked second in scoring with 29.2 points per game and seventh in total offence at 350.0 yards per game.
Seattle’s offensive philosophy emphasizes ball control and efficiency. The team ranked 27th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging the fourth-most rush attempts per game (30.0) and third-fewest pass attempts per game (27.7).

However, this conservative approach shouldn’t be mistaken for offensive limitations—the Seahawks ranked second in yards per pass attempt at 8.4, demonstrating their ability to strike quickly when needed. The defence’s excellence has allowed Seattle to take a more measured approach, particularly when protecting leads in the second half.

The Seahawks are the first team to lead the NFL in scoring defence in the regular season and make it to the Super Bowl since the 2016 Patriots. Historically, teams that led the NFL in scoring defence during the regular season hold a 14-4 record in the Super Bowl, a positive omen for Seattle.

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🏈 THE QUARTERBACK SHOWDOWN

🟥 Drake Maye – New England Patriots

The Patriots are making history by starting multiple rookies on their offensive line in a Super Bowl, including first-round pick Will Campbell at left tackle and third-round pick Jared Wilson at left guard. Protecting rookie quarterback Drake Maye will be critical, especially against a Seattle defence that excels at executing stunts to create pressure.

Maye has accumulated 129 rushing yards on scrambles during the playoffs, the fourth-most by any quarterback in a single postseason in the past 20 years. His mobility has been crucial in extending plays and keeping drives alive when the pocket collapses. The young quarterback has demonstrated remarkable poise under pressure, managing the game effectively while avoiding costly turnovers. His ability to escape pressure and make plays with his legs adds another dimension to New England’s offence. Maye has leaned on his dual-threat capabilities to keep the Patriots’ offense moving lately; after finishing the 2025 season fourth among quarterbacks in rushing yards (450), Maye has run for 141 yards and a touchdown this postseason. Maye has cleared 65 rushing yards twice in three playoff games.

However, Maye will face his stiffest test yet against Seattle’s secondary. The Seahawks’ defence is built on speed and physicality, having played a league-high 815 snaps of nickel coverage while allowing only 5.5 yards per attempt. With cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe on the perimeter, plus rookie Nick Emmanwori (there is a injury doubt about him prior to the game with an ankle injury picked up in practice this week) as a low zone disruptor in the slot, Seattle can close throwing windows and challenge the timing of New England’s passing game. Head coach Mike Vrabel noted that the Seahawks are probably the NFL’s best team at executing stunts to create pressure, which has given the Patriots’ offensive line trouble at times this season.

🟦 Sam Darnold – Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold enters this Super Bowl with an interesting historical footnote: he is 0-4 in his career versus the Patriots, representing the second-most losses without a win by a quarterback against an opponent entering a Super Bowl matchup. Breaking this streak would add a redemption narrative to Seattle’s championship aspirations.

Despite his struggles against New England in the past, Darnold has been efficient and effective throughout Seattle’s nine-game winning streak. Operating behind an offensive line that has protected him well, Darnold has made smart decisions and capitalized on his weapons in the passing game. His ability to push the ball downfield has been evident in Seattle’s league-leading 8.4 yards per pass attempt.

The challenge for Darnold will be maintaining efficiency against a Patriots defence that has been exceptional in limiting opposing quarterbacks throughout the playoffs. New England’s prevent-style defence under coordinator Terrell Williams funnels additional volume to the intermediate-middle of the field, which could play into Seattle’s offensive strengths if they can exploit the underneath areas. Darnold’s experience and the weapons at his disposal will be tested against a defence that has proven capable of shutting down high-powered offences.

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🧠 KEY TACTICAL MATCHUPS

🛑 Patriots Run Defence vs Seahawks Ground Game

This matchup represents a clash of strength against strength. The Patriots boast an elite run defence that has held opposing backfields to just 4.1 yards per carry. Seattle’s offence, however, is built around establishing the run, averaging 30.0 rush attempts per game during the regular season.

Kenneth Walker will carry the load for Seattle after seeing increased usage in the NFC Championship Game, handling 23 opportunities on a 63% snap rate. Walker saw all the carries inside the five-yard line against the Rams, keeping his touchdown equity high. George Holani, fresh off injured reserve, provides a change-of-pace option and could see expanded role if Seattle is forced to move away from their run-balanced approach.
The strength of New England’s run defence could significantly influence Seattle’s play-to-play efficiency, considering how much of their offence is built around establishing the ground game. If the Patriots can contain Walker and force Seattle into obvious passing situations, it could disrupt the Seahawks preferred methodical offensive approach.

⚡ Seahawks Pass Rush vs Patriots Offensive Line

Seattle generated pressure at the league’s sixth-highest rate during the regular season, creating significant challenges for opposing quarterbacks. The Seahawks ability to create pressure with standard four-man rushes, combined with their expertise in executing stunts, represents a major test for New England’s young offensive line.

The Patriots are making history as the first team to start multiple rookies on the offensive line in a Super Bowl. Left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson will need to play beyond their years against a Seattle front that has shown a knack for disrupting quarterbacks. The Seahawks’ defensive scheme, which emphasizes stunts and creative pressure packages, has troubled New England’s offensive line at times this season.

If the Patriots can keep Drake Maye clean in the pocket, they’ll have opportunities to exploit Seattle’s aggressive approach. However, if the Seahawks can consistently generate pressure, it will force Maye to rely more heavily on his mobility and quick-release throws, potentially limiting New England’s offensive effectiveness.

🎯 Patriots Secondary vs Seahawks Receiving Corps

The matchup in the secondary features intriguing individual battles. Patriots nickelback Marcus Jones will likely spend considerable time covering Cooper Kupp and potentially All-Pro receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba when he moves into the slot. Jones led New England with 23 defeats (a metric combining turnovers, tackles for loss, and plays preventing conversions), including three fumble recoveries, one forced fumble, and three interceptions this season.

Smith-Njigba has been phenomenal, seeking his 11th game with at least 100 receiving yards. If he reaches that mark, he’ll tie for the third-most such games in a season in NFL history. His route participation rate of 93.2% in the playoffs demonstrates his central role in Seattle’s passing attack. The Patriots will need cornerback Carlton Davis III to step up, though he led New England with six defensive pass interference penalties in 2025, which could be exploited by Seattle’s receivers.

Rashid Shaheed represents Seattle’s biggest X-factor receiver. Though his regular season production (15 catches for 188 yards) was modest, his game-breaking speed makes him dangerous on every snap. Shaheed has returned three kicks for touchdowns since joining Seattle at midseason, and his 51-yard reception in the NFC Championship Game showcased his ability to create explosive plays. Shaheed will likely be matched against Davis, setting up a speed-versus-physicality battle that could produce big plays either way.

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🏃 RUNNING BACK DYNAMICS

🔴 Patriots Backfield

The Patriots possess a positional advantage at running back with two dual-threat backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson led the NFL with 2.8 yards after contact per rush, showcasing exceptional short-area speed and power. His playoff workload has increased dramatically, playing 62%, 63%, and 94% of offensive snaps across three games while handling 14, 20, and 27 opportunities respectively.

Henderson provides explosive perimeter speed and big-play ability, recording 18 rushes of 10 or more yards during the season. However, his pass-blocking limitations have reduced his role in the playoffs, with opportunities of 10, 14, and 3 in the three postseason games. Against Seattle’s zone coverage tendencies, both backs can serve as underneath safety valves for Maye, providing additional passing game options.

The matchup against Seattle’s run defence is challenging but not insurmountable. The Seahawks held opposing backfields to the fewest yards per carry (3.8), 93.7 rush yards per game (third), and the third-fewest fantasy points per game (19.1) this season. Seattle also tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed at five. The Patriots will need to establish tempo through the run game while getting both backs involved in the passing game to maximize their effectiveness. The Seahawks did give up a league-high 97 receptions to running backs this regular season.

🔵 Seahawks Ground Attack

Kenneth Walker faces one of the toughest matchups of the season against New England’s stout run defence. However, his role has expanded with Zach Charbonnet’s absence, giving him a clear path to 15-18 carries. Walker’s ability to find the end zone near the goal line (handling all carries inside the five against the Rams) keeps his touchdown potential high despite the difficult matchup. The pure rushing matchup against a Patriots defence allowing 4.1 yards per carry represents Seattle’s biggest offensive challenge, potentially forcing them to lean more heavily on their passing game than they’d prefer.

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🧤 RECEIVING CORPS & PASS-CATCHING DYNAMICS

🔴 Patriots Pass-Catchers

New England have maintained a five-man wide receiver rotation regardless of injuries, matchups, or situations throughout the season. The route participation hierarchy through three playoff games reveals Stefon Diggs leading at 79.4%, followed by Kayshon Boutte (74.5%), Hunter Henry (72.5%), DeMario Douglas (43.1%), Mack Hollins (41.4%), Kyle Williams (39.4%), and Austin Hooper (27.5%).

Diggs operates in a hybrid role all over the formation, making him the most likely Patriots receiver to produce a slate-winning score despite not yet finding the end zone in the playoffs. Boutte, Williams, and Hollins primarily work the perimeter, while Douglas exclusively operates from the slot. This positional specialization limits some versatility but allows each receiver to master their specific role.

Tight end Hunter Henry has been involved as a reliable target and carries a touchdown threat being on of Maye’s favourite targets in the red zone. Hunter Henry has appeared on 76% of New England’s offensive snaps in the playoffs. He led all Patriots pass catchers in playing time (69%) in the AFC Championship at Denver. The Seahawks gave up the NFL’s fifth-most receptions (105) and sixth-most yards (1,080) to tight ends this season, so don’t forget to also include the Patriots No2 TE Austin Hooper
Beyond Diggs, Boutte (who can reach ceiling production on chunk yardage gains), and Henry, the Patriots’ pass-catchers are primarily touchdown-dependent options. The limited passing volume in New England’s game plan means opportunities are at a premium, making efficiency crucial for all pass-catchers.

🔵 Seahawks Receiving Options

Seattle’s passing attack features a more concentrated target distribution. Jaxon Smith-Njigba dominates with a 93.2% route participation rate in the playoffs, establishing himself as the clear alpha receiver. Tight end AJ Barner (76.3%) and Cooper Kupp (72.9%) serve as the primary complementary options, while Rashid Shaheed (61.0%) provides the deep threat component despite seeing fewer routes than many realize.
The Seahawks utilize elevated 12-personnel rates (one RB, two TEs), which explains Kupp’s secondary role despite his capabilities. This personnel grouping allows Seattle to maintain their run-game emphasis while keeping defensive coordinators guessing about play calls. The prevent nature of New England’s defence under coordinator Terrell Williams could create opportunities for Seattle’s intermediate passing game, particularly for Smith-Njigba and the tight ends working the middle of the field.

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🎯 SPECIAL TEAMS X-FACTORS

Special teams could play a decisive role in this tightly contested matchup. Marcus Jones provides the Patriots with an elite return threat, earning second-team All-Pro honours as a punt returner with an average of 17.3 yards and two touchdowns. His explosiveness in the return game gives New England the potential for game-changing field position swings.

Seattle counters with Rashid Shaheed, who has been even more productive in the return game. Shaheed has returned three kicks for touchdowns since joining Seattle at midseason (one punt, two kick-offs), demonstrating elite return ability combined with excellent blocking from Seattle’s special teams units. Both teams must exercise caution when kicking to these dynamic returners, as one mistake could shift momentum dramatically.

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📜 HISTORICAL CONTEXT: SUPER BOWL XLIX

The last time these franchises met in a Super Bowl remains one of the most memorable games in NFL history. Super Bowl XLIX will be forever etched in the memories—or nightmares—of Patriots and Seahawks fans. Seattle was 26 seconds and one touchdown away from hoisting back-to-back Lombardi trophies when quarterback Russell Wilson took the snap at the 1-yard line.

Wilson’s pass to Ricardo Lockette on his right was intercepted by rookie cornerback Malcolm Butler at the goal line, denying Seattle the victory and cementing the play as one of the most controversial in Super Bowl history. Even more stunning than Butler’s interception was head coach Pete Carroll’s decision not to hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch, who had powered the offence that season with 1,306 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Patriots entered the fourth quarter trailing by 10 points before quarterback Tom Brady led consecutive touchdown drives to claim his fourth championship. That dramatic comeback and goal-line stand defined an era of Patriots football. Now, more than a decade later, both franchises return to the Super Bowl stage with entirely new rosters but the same hunger for championship glory.

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📊 KEY STATISTICS & TRENDS

The New England Patriots are back in the Super Bowl for the 12th time in franchise history, the most of any franchise in the Super Bowl era by four Super Bowls. With this being Super Bowl 60, New England have now been in the big game 20% of the time.
Since the Patriots first Super Bowl appearance in 1985-86, New England has been a part of 29% of Super Bowls.

In the Patriots 11 Super Bowls, they are 6-5 SU and 4-6-1 ATS, New England’s 6 ATS losses in the Super Bowl is the most of any team (Broncos have 2nd-most with 5).
The Seattle Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for just the 4th time in franchise history, with all four appearances coming since 2005-06, over the last 20 years. Seattle is 1-2 SU and ATS in their previous three appearances and in all three appearances, the Seahawks have closed as underdogs, with them now being listed as the favourite finally in the big game.

The Seahawks were actually underdogs in their first two games of the regular season against the 49ers and Steelers and now find themselves in the Super Bowl. Since the NFL changed their schedule to 16 games in 1978, Seattle is the 8th team to make a Super Bowl after being underdogs in their first two games of the regular season. The last three teams in this spot lost outright, including 3 of the last 4. Overall, these teams are 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

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🧩 SUPER BOWL MISCELLANY

Super Bowl favourites are 36-23 SU and 27-30-2 ATS in the Super Bowl.
The over is 29-28-1 in the Super Bowl. (There was no total in Super Bowl 1.) The over has cashed in three straight Super Bowls for the first time since 2013-15. It hasn’t cashed in four straight since 1985-88. The over has never cashed in five straight Super Bowls in history.

Super Bowl winners are 50-7-2 ATS (88%).

The Rams won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread in 2022, which was the first time that happened since the 2009 Super Bowl. Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or fewer points are 31-1 ATS. Super Bowl winners with a spread of four or fewer are 24-0 ATS, with 11 favourites and 13 ‘dogs winning straight-up.

This will likely be the 32nd Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer. The SU winner has covered the spread in 30 of 31 games. Sixteen ‘dogs have won outright and 15 favourites have won outright.

This is poised to be the 18th straight Super Bowl with the favourite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.

The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is three points, which has happened nine times. The next closest is four points (six times).

Since the first Super Bowl in 1967, only 6 teams have overcome double-digit deficits to win… two were the Chiefs against the 49ers and Eagles, and two featured Tom Brady: 2017 – NE over ATL (the 28-3 game) & 2015 – NE over SEA (the Malcolm Butler INT game). The other two: 2010 – NO over IND (Brees over Manning, featuring that surprise onside kick) & 1988 – WAS over DEN (so long ago Chubby Checker was the halftime act).

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👀 PLAYERS TO WATCH

DeMarcus Lawrence (DE, Seattle)
Lawrence has been dominant in Seattle’s playoff run, recording a sack and forced fumble in both postseason victories. If he accomplishes this feat again in the Super Bowl, he’ll become the first player this century to record a sack and forced fumble in three consecutive playoff games. His ability to disrupt the quarterback and create turnovers makes him a game-wrecker who could single-handedly shift momentum.

Christian Gonzalez and Milton Williams (Patriots Defence)
When both Gonzalez and Williams play, the Patriots are undefeated this season with a 12-0 record while allowing just 14.5 points per game. Their presence transforms New England’s defence into an elite unit capable of shutting down any offence. Keeping both players healthy and on the field for the entire game will be crucial to the Patriots’ defensive success.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seattle)
Smith-Njigba is seeking his 11th game with at least 100 receiving yards, which would tie for the third-most in a season in NFL history. His consistency and route-running excellence make him Darnold’s most reliable target. The Patriots’ secondary will need to account for his whereabouts on every snap, as he’s capable of dominating from multiple alignments across the formation.

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🧠 FINAL THOUGHTS

Super Bowl XL presents a fascinating contrast in styles and philosophies. The Patriots have methodically advanced through the playoffs by winning the field position battle, playing exceptional defence, and limiting mistakes on offence. Their ability to lead early and protect leads has proven nearly insurmountable, as evidenced by their 17 halftime leads in 20 games this season.

The Seahawks counter with a more explosive offensive approach supported by an equally dominant defence. Their nine-game winning streak and balanced attack make them dangerous in any game situation. Seattle’s ability to control the clock with their ground game while possessing the capability to strike quickly through the air creates significant challenges for opposing defences.

The key battles will likely be decided in the trenches. Can Seattle’s pass rush disrupt Drake Maye and the Patriots’ young offensive line? Can New England’s stout run defence contain Kenneth Walker and force Seattle into obvious passing situations? Will the secondary battles between the Patriots’ defensive backs and Seattle’s talented receivers produce the game-changing plays that define Super Bowl moments?

Special teams could prove decisive, with Marcus Jones and Rashid Shaheed both capable of game-breaking returns. The quarterbacks—rookie Drake Maye facing his biggest test yet and Sam Darnold seeking redemption against the Patriots—will need to manage the moment while making crucial decisions under pressure.

History suggests that teams leading the NFL in scoring defence during the regular season and reaching the Super Bowl have a 14-4 record in the championship game, favouring Seattle. However, the Patriots’ playoff experience, defensive excellence, and ability to win close games cannot be overlooked. This promises to be a hard-fought, low-scoring affair where execution in critical moments and the ability to win key matchups will determine who hoists the Lombardi Trophy. Both teams have demonstrated championship mettle throughout their playoff runs—Super Bowl XL will reveal which team can rise to the occasion when everything is on the line and it may well be the Seahawks who just have the edge and get their revenge for the narrow defeat by the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX.

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